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Historical intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing retained for historical analysis.

Intelligence brief / archived issue

Situation Update (UTC)

Key reported developments

  • Kharkiv city, Kharkiv Oblast: Mayor Ігор Терехов reported two enemy drone strikes in Kyivskyi district and a hit in Saltivskyi district; he later specified a hit near non-residential buildings, damaged cars with some burning, and raised the injured count from two to four. RBC-Ukraine relayed the Saltivskyi district and four-injured figures, attributing them to Terekhov. Event times were not supplied beyond source timestamps. (Sources: Ігор Терехов, 2026-09-25 23:17:25, 23:20:20, 23:29:56, 23:37:17, 23:40:29; РБК-Україна, 2026-09-25 23:32:37, 23:42:20; confidence HIGH for official statement issuance, MEDIUM for reported hit details, UNCONFIRMED for final casualty and damage totals.)

  • Krasnodar Krai, Russia (Ilsky refinery): ASTRA published an OSINT analysis reporting an overnight attack and fire at the Ilsky NPZ named after A.A. Shamara in Seversky district, about 50 km from Krasnodar, citing geolocated night imagery and an annotated satellite comparison. ASTRA said the attack began around midnight, that residents in local publics reported explosions, air-defense activity, and a refinery fire, and that air-alert reports appeared only two hours later. It described the site as having about 6.6 million tons/year of primary refining capacity across six units, supplied via Transneft pipelines, with products allegedly used for Russian troops. No official Russian confirmation was included. (Source: ASTRA, 2026-09-25 23:45:50 and 23:45:51; event time described as around midnight, exact date not specified in the caption; confidence MEDIUM for reported fire and partial geolocation, LOW for attack attribution; UNCONFIRMED.)

  • Ukrainian Air Force reported a jet UAV from Sumy Oblast toward Poltava Oblast, moving toward Kotelva/Opishnya; later a jet UAV past Novi Sanzhary and Bilyky on a northwest course; and another UAV toward Lokhvytsia, Poltava Oblast. No interception, impact, or all-clear result was supplied for these tracks. (Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 2026-09-25 23:22:50, 23:33:50, 23:41:43; event times as source timestamps; confidence HIGH for issuance only.)

  • Ukrainian Air Force reported a jet UAV in Zaporizhzhia Oblast toward Vilniansk; a jet UAV east of Mykolaiv moving toward Bashtanka; and a jet UAV from the south toward Ustynivka and Bobrynets, Kirovohrad Oblast. No outcomes were supplied. (Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 2026-09-25 23:26:56, 23:28:11, 23:46:20; event times as source timestamps; confidence HIGH for issuance only.)

  • Ukrainian Air Force reported KABs on northern Kharkiv Oblast. No impact, damage, or casualty detail was supplied. (Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 2026-09-25 23:34:31; event time as source timestamp; confidence HIGH for issuance only.)

  • Kyiv city: КМВА announced the all-clear for the air alert. This followed the previously reported alert in the prior baseline. (Source: КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), 2026-09-25 23:34:27; event time as source timestamp; confidence HIGH for issuance only.)

  • RBC-Ukraine relayed an Il Sole 24 Ore claim that during NATO exercises in Latvia an Italian Dardo combat vehicle accidentally fired a machine-gun burst at another Dardo, injuring four Italian soldiers; one was initially more serious but there was no life-threatening danger, and an investigation was ongoing. RBC’s own attachment assessment said the supplied photo does not show Latvia, Dardo vehicles, a machine gun, a hospital, or the reported incident and appears illustrative or archival. This item is not linked to the Russo-Ukrainian war in the supplied message. (Source: РБК-Україна, 2026-09-25 23:37:24 and 23:37:25; event time not supplied; confidence LOW; UNCONFIRMED.)

  • ASTRA reported that the Ilsky refinery had been attacked repeatedly before, including on 8 August, when local authorities admitted an attack and reported six injured from drone debris; ASTRA listed earlier reports on 10 July, 2 June, 17 February, 1 January, and in 2023, 2024, and 2025. These are historical context for the current fire, not new strike outcomes. (Source: ASTRA, 2026-09-25 23:45:50; confidence MEDIUM for ASTRA’s statement, LOW for underlying historical details.)

Reported situation by area

  • Kharkiv city, Kharkiv Oblast: New official reporting describes two enemy drone strikes in Kyivskyi district and a hit in Saltivskyi district. Terekhov later said the Saltivskyi hit was near non-residential buildings, that cars were damaged and some were burning, and that the injured count rose to four. RBC-Ukraine relayed the Saltivskyi hit and four injured, citing Terekhov. No final damage assessment or fatality report was supplied. Sources: Ігор Терехов, 2026-09-25 23:17:25, 23:20:20, 23:29:56, 23:37:17, 23:40:29; РБК-Україна, 2026-09-25 23:32:37, 23:42:20. Confidence: HIGH for official statements; MEDIUM for reported strike effects; UNCONFIRMED for final casualty and damage totals.

  • Krasnodar Krai, Russia (Ilsky refinery): ASTRA added a geolocated night image and annotated satellite comparison supporting identification of the Ilsky NPZ and an approximate fire location, but the core claims rest on reader and local-public reports, with no official Russian confirmation included. The event time is described only as beginning around midnight, and the caption lacks an exact date/year. Sources: ASTRA, 2026-09-25 23:45:50 and 23:45:51. Confidence: MEDIUM for reported fire and partial geolocation; LOW for attack attribution; UNCONFIRMED.

  • Poltava Oblast: Air Force notices reported a UAV from Sumy Oblast toward Kotelva/Opishnya, a jet UAV past Novi Sanzhary and Bilyky on a northwest course, and a UAV toward Lokhvytsia. No impact or damage was supplied. Sources: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 2026-09-25 23:22:50, 23:33:50, 23:41:43. Confidence: HIGH for issuance only.

  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Air Force reported a jet UAV toward Vilniansk. No outcome was supplied. Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 2026-09-25 23:26:56. Confidence: HIGH for issuance only.

  • Mykolaiv Oblast: Air Force reported a jet UAV east of Mykolaiv moving toward Bashtanka. No outcome was supplied. Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 2026-09-25 23:28:11. Confidence: HIGH for issuance only.

  • Kirovohrad Oblast: Air Force reported a jet UAV from the south toward Ustynivka and Bobrynets. No outcome was supplied. Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 2026-09-25 23:46:20. Confidence: HIGH for issuance only.

  • Kyiv city: КМВА issued an all-clear for the air alert. This updates the prior baseline alert but does not establish any strike, interception, or damage outcome. Source: КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), 2026-09-25 23:34:27. Confidence: HIGH for issuance only.

  • Previously reported baseline (prior situation report, roughly 22:23–23:15 UTC), not independently updated by this batch unless noted: Earlier Exilenova+ and RBC-Ukraine items claimed continued fire at the Ilsky refinery; Ukrainian Air Force notices described jet UAVs through the Chernobyl exclusion zone toward Zhytomyr Oblast, toward Ivankiv in Kyiv Oblast, and toward Kyiv from the Hostomel side; КМВА had declared a Kyiv drone-threat alert; and Военкор Котенок had claimed explosions in Odesa, Sumy, and Kyiv oblasts plus a large Odesa fire. Those remain prior-period baseline items. The new batch adds official Kharkiv mayoral reporting, the Kyiv all-clear, additional Air Force track notices, and ASTRA’s Ilsky analysis.

  • Other sectors: No supported update in the supplied messages for Luhansk, Kherson, the Donetsk or Zaporizhzhia ground lines, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, or other areas beyond the items above. Absence from this batch is an evidence gap and does not establish that those areas are quiet or unchanged.

Reported strikes and air-defense activity

  • Kharkiv city, Kharkiv Oblast: Terekhov reported two enemy drone strikes in Kyivskyi district and a hit in Saltivskyi district; he later described a Saltivskyi hit near non-residential buildings, damaged cars with some burning, and four injured. RBC-Ukraine relayed the four-injured figure and the Saltivskyi hit, citing Terekhov. No air-defense interception or downing claim was supplied. Sources: Ігор Терехов, 2026-09-25 23:17:25, 23:20:20, 23:29:56, 23:37:17, 23:40:29; РБК-Україна, 2026-09-25 23:32:37, 23:42:20. Confidence: HIGH for official statements; MEDIUM for reported strike effects; UNCONFIRMED for final totals.

  • Northern Kharkiv Oblast: Air Force reported KABs in the north of Kharkiv Oblast. No impact, damage, or casualty result was supplied. Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 2026-09-25 23:34:31. Confidence: HIGH for issuance only.

  • Air Force track notices: Jet UAV tracks were reported from Sumy Oblast toward Poltava Oblast, in Poltava Oblast past Novi Sanzhary and Bilyky and toward Lokhvytsia, in Zaporizhzhia Oblast toward Vilniansk, east of Mykolaiv toward Bashtanka, and from the south toward Ustynivka and Bobrynets in Kirovohrad Oblast. These notices establish alerting only; no interception counts, impacts, or all-clear results were supplied. Sources: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 2026-09-25 23:22:50, 23:26:56, 23:28:11, 23:33:50, 23:41:43, 23:46:20. Confidence: HIGH for issuance only.

  • Ilsky refinery, Krasnodar Krai, Russia: ASTRA reported an overnight attack and fire, supported by watermarked night imagery, an annotated satellite/map image labeling the Ilsky NPZ, and a day/night comparison aligning structures. ASTRA said local publics reported explosions and air-defense work, and that air-alert reports appeared about two hours later. No official Russian statement, interception count, casualty figure, or independent damage assessment was supplied for the current episode. Source: ASTRA, 2026-09-25 23:45:50 and 23:45:51. Confidence: MEDIUM for reported fire and partial geolocation; LOW for attack attribution; UNCONFIRMED.

  • Kyiv city: КМВА announced the all-clear. No strike or damage outcome was supplied. Source: КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), 2026-09-25 23:34:27. Confidence: HIGH for issuance only.

  • No consolidated air-defense results or official operational bulletins: This batch supplies no interception rates or missile/drone totals, no Russian Ministry of Defense operational bulletin, and no Ukrainian General Staff strike claim.

Reported Russian activity

  • Kharkiv city, Kharkiv Oblast: Mayor Ігор Терехов attributed two strikes in Kyivskyi district to enemy drones and reported a Saltivskyi district hit; RBC-Ukraine described the episode as a Russian attack, citing Terekhov. These are Ukrainian official and media attributions, not Russian acknowledgements. Sources: Ігор Терехов, 2026-09-25 23:17:25, 23:20:20, 23:29:56; РБК-Україна, 2026-09-25 23:42:20. Confidence: HIGH for statement issuance; MEDIUM for reported event details.

  • Northern Kharkiv Oblast: Ukrainian Air Force reported KABs on northern Kharkiv Oblast. No Russian statement or outcome was supplied. Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 2026-09-25 23:34:31. Confidence: HIGH for issuance only.

  • Ilsky refinery, Krasnodar Krai, Russia: ASTRA described the refinery as one of the leading oil-refining enterprises in southern Russia and said its products are allegedly used, among other things, to supply Russian troops. This is an ASTRA characterization, not independently confirmed in the supplied messages. Source: ASTRA, 2026-09-25 23:45:50. Confidence: LOW for the military-use claim; MEDIUM for the reported facility description.

  • No Russian Ministry of Defense operational bulletin: No such bulletin appears in this batch.

Reported Ukrainian activity

  • Ukrainian Air Force issued multiple jet UAV and KAB notices for tracks and areas including Sumy–Poltava, Poltava, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, and northern Kharkiv Oblast. These are official Ukrainian alerting notices; no outcomes were supplied. Sources: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 2026-09-25 23:22:50, 23:26:56, 23:28:11, 23:33:50, 23:34:31, 23:41:43, 23:46:20. Confidence: HIGH for issuance only.

  • КМВА announced the all-clear for the Kyiv air alert. Source: КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), 2026-09-25 23:34:27. Confidence: HIGH for issuance only.

  • Ilsky refinery: No official Ukrainian General Staff or Defense Forces statement of responsibility for the current fire appears in this batch. ASTRA’s report notes repeated prior attacks by Ukrainian drones, including 8 August, but that is presented as historical context, not a new official Ukrainian acknowledgement. Source: ASTRA, 2026-09-25 23:45:50. Confidence: LOW for current attribution; UNCONFIRMED.

  • No Ukrainian General Staff strike claims: This batch contains no Ukrainian General Staff or other official Ukrainian claim of specific strikes or equipment destruction.

Civilian and infrastructure impact

  • Kharkiv city, Kharkiv Oblast: Official mayoral reporting described a hit near non-residential buildings in Saltivskyi district, damaged cars with some burning, and four injured, up from an initial two. No fatality was reported. Details were still being clarified. Sources: Ігор Терехов, 2026-09-25 23:29:56, 23:37:17, 23:40:29; РБК-Україна, 2026-09-25 23:32:37, 23:42:20. Confidence: HIGH for official statements; MEDIUM for injury count; UNCONFIRMED for final totals.

  • Ilsky refinery, Krasnodar Krai, Russia: ASTRA reported a large fire at the refinery, with no casualty or independently assessed damage figures for the current episode. It cited about 6.6 million tons/year of refining capacity and previous attacks, including an 8 August episode when local authorities admitted an attack and reported six injured from drone debris. Source: ASTRA, 2026-09-25 23:45:50. Confidence: MEDIUM for reported fire; LOW for capacity and historical details; UNCONFIRMED.

  • Poltava, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, and Kirovohrad oblasts; northern Kharkiv Oblast; Kyiv city: The supplied messages report only alerts and track notices, with no casualty, damage, or service-disruption information. Sources: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 2026-09-25 23:22:50, 23:26:56, 23:28:11, 23:33:50, 23:34:31, 23:41:43, 23:46:20; КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), 2026-09-25 23:34:27. Confidence: HIGH for issuance only.

  • No new verified consolidated civilian casualty, displacement, or infrastructure-damage figures beyond the attributed Kharkiv and Ilsky items above. Prior-period Kyiv, Odesa, Druzhkivka and other impact reporting in the previous daily report remains historical context, not new evidence.

Information environment and disputed claims

  • Kharkiv strikes: The primary source is Mayor Ігор Терехов, an official Ukrainian channel; RBC-Ukraine relays the same mayor’s figures rather than providing independent corroboration. The casualty count changed from two to four within the batch and was explicitly preliminary. Sources: Ігор Терехов, 2026-09-25 23:17:25, 23:20:20, 23:29:56, 23:37:17, 23:40:29; РБК-Україна, 2026-09-25 23:32:37, 23:42:20. Confidence: HIGH for statement issuance; MEDIUM for event details; UNCONFIRMED for final totals.

  • Ilsky refinery: ASTRA is an established OSINT outlet, and the supplied material includes a night fire image, an annotated map labeling the Ilsky NPZ, and a day/night comparison supporting same-site identification. However, the core claims rely on reader and local-public reports, with no official Russian confirmation. The supplied assessment flags a date stamp reading 26.09.2026, an omitted exact attack date/year, an air-alert delay framing, and reliance on an ASTRA-produced annotation rather than raw georeferenced evidence. Source: ASTRA, 2026-09-25 23:45:50 and 23:45:51. Confidence: MEDIUM for reported fire/partial geolocation; LOW for attack attribution; UNCONFIRMED.

  • Prior Ilsky baseline: The previous situation report’s Exilenova+ posts and RBC-Ukraine relay claiming the Ilsky refinery continued to burn are baseline items only. Repetition of the same claim across sources is not independent corroboration. The new ASTRA material adds geolocation-supporting imagery but does not provide official confirmation.

  • Latvia NATO exercise friendly fire: RBC-Ukraine relayed an Il Sole 24 Ore claim of an Italian Dardo firing accidentally on another Dardo during NATO exercises in Latvia, injuring four Italian soldiers. RBC’s own attachment assessment said the photo does not show Latvia, Dardo vehicles, a machine gun, a hospital, or the incident, and appears illustrative or archival. No official NATO or Italian confirmation was included. This item is not linked to the Russo-Ukrainian war in the supplied message. Source: РБК-Україна, 2026-09-25 23:37:24 and 23:37:25. Confidence: LOW; UNCONFIRMED.

  • Ukrainian Air Force and КМВА notices: These are official Ukrainian channel issuances. They establish alerting and, in the Kyiv case, an all-clear; they do not establish interception, impact, damage, or casualty outcomes. Sources: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 2026-09-25 23:22:50, 23:26:56, 23:28:11, 23:33:50, 23:34:31, 23:41:43, 23:46:20; КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), 2026-09-25 23:34:27. Confidence: HIGH for issuance.

  • Dempster-Shafer beliefs: The supplied beliefs assign 0.600338 to “Uncertainty,” 0.167231 to “Military Action: Drone Strike by Ukraine on Ilsky refinery in Krasnodar Krai,” 0.165539 to a combined “Logistical Shift: Infrastructure Damage in Ilsky refinery, Krasnodar Krai” plus drone-strike hypothesis, and 0.066892 to “Logistical Shift: Infrastructure Damage in Ilsky refinery, Krasnodar Krai.” These are analytic support only, not new facts, and are not treated as independent corroboration of any reported event.

  • No official operational claims: No Russian Ministry of Defense operational bulletin and no Ukrainian General Staff strike claim appear in this batch.

Evidence limitations and unresolved questions

  • The Kharkiv strike reports come from the mayor and an RBC-Ukraine relay of the same official; exact hit times, final casualty counts, and damage assessments were not supplied. The injury count is explicitly preliminary and rose from two to four within the batch.

  • The Air Force notices establish only that alerts were issued for specific jet UAV and KAB tracks. Apart from the Kyiv all-clear, no interception, impact, damage, or all-clear outcome was supplied for those tracks.

  • The Ilsky refinery claim still lacks official Russian confirmation, an independently verified current damage assessment, and current casualty figures. The exact attack date/year is not specified in ASTRA’s caption; the event time is described only as beginning around midnight. The imagery and annotation support partial geolocation but do not independently establish cause or Ukrainian responsibility. Prior attacks cited by ASTRA are historical context.

  • The RBC-Ukraine Latvia item lacks primary NATO or Italian confirmation, carries a photo that RBC’s own assessment said does not match the claimed incident, and is not linked to the Russo-Ukrainian war in the supplied message.

  • The supplied weather context provides time-qualified numeric observations as of 2026-09-25T23:45 UTC near the contact line; no event in this batch is directly linked to those conditions, and no weather-derived conclusions are drawn here.

  • The previous situation report and previous daily report are treated as historical baseline only, not as independent corroboration. No new evidence in this batch covers Luhansk, Kherson, the Donetsk or Zaporizhzhia ground lines, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Belgorod, or other sectors beyond the items above; absence from this batch is an evidence gap and does not establish that those areas are unchanged.

Previous (2026-09-25 23:18:54.580327+00)