Sitrep 2026-07-29 11:35:46.150167+00

Situation Update (UTC)

Key updates since last sitrep

UAF Deep Strike Hits Perm Refinery: Ukrainian OSINT reported a strike on the AVT-5 (Atmospheric Vacuum Tower) unit at the PermNeftekhim refinery in Perm Oblast, with satellite and ground footage showing burning distillation columns; UAF is reportedly shifting tactics to target critical equipment for long-term disruption using Western intelligence to bypass RF air defenses (11:17-11:18 UTC, Оперативний ЗСУ / КіберБорошно / Dnipro Osint, confidence HIGH for strike, MEDIUM for tactical shift details).
RF Claims UAF Ceased Resistance in Krasnyi Lyman: A Russian battalion commander from the 37th MR Regiment (25th CAA, "Zapad" grouping) claimed Ukrainian forces are not offering resistance during the clearing of Krasnyi Lyman (Donetsk Oblast); no visual evidence or independent geospatial verification supports this claim (11:24 UTC, ТАСС / MoD Russia, confidence LOW for factual basis, HIGH for propaganda intent).
Attempted Assassination of RF Drone Manufacturer in Tula: An unidentified shooter attacked Andrey Cherezov, reportedly the head of the "Russian Laboratory of Air Transport" (producer of "Ovod" FPV drones), in a residential building in Tula on July 29; Cherezov was hospitalized, and the Russian Investigative Committee opened an attempted murder case (11:04 UTC, Два майора, confidence MEDIUM for incident, LOW for victim identity as it relies on secondary media reports).
Kyiv Region Strike Death Toll Rises to 12: The Ukrainian Prosecutor General's Office reported that the death toll from the July 24 Russian strike on an exhibition site in the Kyiv region has increased to 12 following the death of a 20-year-old man in a hospital (11:15-11:32 UTC, Офіс Генерального прокурора / РБК-Україна / ЦАПЛІЄНКО, confidence HIGH).
RF KAB Strikes Hit Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk: Ukrainian Air Forces reported Russian KAB (guided aerial bomb) strikes targeting the Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions (11:15-11:26 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence HIGH for strikes, LOW for specific BDA).
Ukrainian Mining Sector Disrupted by Port Blockade: The Poltava Mining and Processing Plant (GOK) in Poltava Oblast announced a 10-20 day operational halt due to Russian attacks and port blockades; a cargo ship with $5-6M of ore was reportedly attacked and is drifting, while the Yeryostovsky and Southern GOKs also face partial shutdowns and workforce reductions (11:09 UTC, Операция Z, confidence MEDIUM for operational impact, LOW for specific maritime incident details).

Operational picture (by sector)

Frontline weather as of 11:30 UTC: Kharkiv/Vovchansk 19.0C (thunderstorm, 100% cloud, 0.3mm precip), Luhansk/Svatove 18.7C (light rain showers, 100% cloud, 0.2mm precip), Donetsk/Pokrovsk 21.9C (partly cloudy, 77% cloud), Zaporizhzhia/Orikhiv 24.6C (partly cloudy, 84% cloud), Kherson 25.7C (partly cloudy, 72% cloud).

Kupiansk / Lyman: RF claims UAF forces have ceased resistance in Krasnyi Lyman (Donetsk Oblast) during clearing operations, per a commander of the 37th MR Regiment, 25th CAA ("Zapad" grouping); lacks independent verification (11:24 UTC, ТАСС, confidence LOW).
South-Slobozhansky / Border Areas (Sumy): No significant change.
Kramatorsk / Konstantinovka / Chasiv Yar / Dobropillya: No significant change.
Toretsk / Pokrovsk / Novopavlivka / Orikhiv: No significant change.
Dnipropetrovsk / Zaporizhzhia: RF conducted KAB strikes on the Dnipropetrovsk region (11:26 UTC, Повітряні Сили, confidence HIGH for strikes).
Kharkiv / Slobozhansky: RF conducted KAB strikes on the Kharkiv region (11:15 UTC, Повітряні Сили, confidence HIGH for strikes).
Kherson / Mykolaiv / Southern Coast: Nothing significant to report.
Odesa / Southern Maritime: Nothing significant to report.
Crimea / Northern Rear: Nothing significant to report.

Deep strikes & air defense

UAF Deep Strikes (RF Rear):
- Perm Oil Refinery: Ukrainian OSINT (Dnipro Osint) reported a strike on the AVT-5 unit at the PermNeftekhim refinery in Perm Oblast (coords: 57.909275° N, 56.120949° E). Satellite and ground footage show burning main technological columns. UAF is reportedly shifting tactics to target critical equipment for long-term repair delays, utilizing US and French intelligence to map and bypass RF air defenses (11:17-11:18 UTC, Оперативний ЗСУ / КіберБорошно, confidence HIGH for strike, MEDIUM for tactical/intel details).
RF Aerospace Campaign:
- Kharkiv & Dnipropetrovsk Regions: Ukrainian Air Forces reported Russian KAB strikes hitting both regions (11:15-11:26 UTC, Повітряні Сили, confidence HIGH).
- Kyiv Region: Death toll from the July 24 strike on an exhibition site rises to 12 (11:15 UTC, Офіс Генерального прокурора, confidence HIGH).

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Internal Security / Defense Industry Targeting: The attempted assassination of Andrey Cherezov, reportedly the head of the "Russian Laboratory of Air Transport" (producer of "Ovod" FPV drones), in Tula highlights the vulnerability of RF defense industry personnel to targeted violence or sabotage inside Russia (11:04 UTC, Два майора, confidence MEDIUM).
Information Warfare / Morale: RF propagandists are pushing narratives of UAF collapse, such as the unverified claim that Ukrainian forces are not resisting in Krasnyi Lyman, and responding to Ukrainian threats of strikes on Moscow with defiant rhetoric to maintain domestic morale (11:06-11:24 UTC, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС / ТАСС, confidence HIGH for propaganda intent, LOW for factual basis).
Logistics / Fuel: The Russian government claims fuel supply to the agro-industrial complex is stabilizing and ordered price controls, likely in response to ongoing UAF strikes on RF refineries and logistics hubs (11:28 UTC, ТАСС, confidence MEDIUM for official stance, LOW for actual market stabilization).

Friendly activity (UAF)

Deep Strike Tactics Shift: UAF has adjusted its strategy against RF energy infrastructure, focusing on destroying critical, hard-to-replace equipment rather than just causing fires, aided by Western intelligence for air defense mapping (11:17 UTC, Оперативний ЗСУ, confidence MEDIUM).
Intelligence Leak Allegation: Ukrainian media reported that former Deputy Commander of the Armed Forces Brigadier General Andriy Lebedenko allegedly leaked classified data during a press conference prior to his dismissal, and is currently on unplanned leave (11:04 UTC, STERNENKO, confidence MEDIUM for the report, LOW for independent verification of the leak).
POW Coordination: Ukrainian authorities, including the ICRC, held a meeting in Lviv with families of POWs and missing soldiers from the 82nd Separate Air Assault Brigade to discuss support mechanisms and exchange procedures (11:20 UTC, Координаційний штаб, confidence HIGH).

Information environment / disinformation

RF Claims of UAF Collapse in Lyman: RF state media (TASS) broadcasted claims from a RF battalion commander that UAF forces are not resisting in Krasnyi Lyman, a narrative push lacking any visual or geospatial evidence, aimed at projecting momentum and demoralizing defenders (11:24 UTC, ТАСС, confidence HIGH for propaganda intent, LOW for factual basis).
Defiant Rhetoric on Moscow Strikes: Z-propagandist Anastasia Kashеvarova published defiant responses to alleged threats by a Ukrainian businessman to strike Moscow in the autumn, utilizing historical tropes to rally domestic support (11:06 UTC, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, confidence HIGH for propaganda intent).

Outlook (next 6-12h)

Perm Refinery BDA: Monitor for official RF statements or updated satellite imagery to assess the full extent of the damage to the AVT-5 unit at PermNeftekhim and its impact on regional fuel production.
Krasnyi Lyman Ground Truth: Cross-reference RF claims of ceased UAF resistance in Krasnyi Lyman with independent geospatial OSINT and frontline reports to verify the actual tactical situation.
Tula Assassination Fallout: Track RF internal security responses and official confirmations regarding the identity of the victim and the status of the investigation in Tula.
Maritime Logistics: Monitor AIS data and Ukrainian port authority updates regarding the reported drifting cargo ship and the operational status of the Poltava, Yeryostovsky, and Southern GOKs.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

Perm Refinery Damage Assessment: Obtain high-resolution satellite imagery of the PermNeftekhim facility to verify the destruction of the AVT-5 unit and estimate the duration of the production halt.
Krasnyi Lyman Verification: Collect independent geospatial and frontline OSINT to verify RF claims that Ukrainian forces have ceased resistance in Krasnyi Lyman.
Tula Assassination Details: Verify the identity of the victim in the Tula shooting and confirm if it is indeed the head of the "Ovod" drone manufacturing facility through official RF law enforcement channels.
Poltava GOK Maritime Incident: Track AIS data for the reported drifting cargo ship carrying Poltava GOK ore and verify the casualty and financial loss claims.
Lebedenko Leak Investigation: Monitor official Ukrainian military or security service statements regarding the alleged classified data leak by Brigadier General Andriy Lebedenko.