Sitrep 2026-07-28 13:14:01.407836+00

Situation Update (UTC)

Key updates since last sitrep

UAF Halts Tyumen Refinery Operations: UAF drone strikes on 25 July have suspended operations at the Tyumen Oil Refinery (Tyumenneft) in Western Siberia, specifically damaging the diesel hydrotreating unit (2.6M tons/yr capacity) and high-octane gasoline production unit (13:02 UTC, ASTRA / 13:05 UTC, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, confidence HIGH).
RF Claims Control in Konstantinovka: RF Ministry of Defence claims the 1465th Regiment ("Yuzhnaya" grouping) has secured the central district of Konstantinovka, Donetsk Oblast, with a platoon leader claiming direct communication with the Supreme Commander-in-Chief (13:02 UTC, MoD Russia, confidence MEDIUM).
UAF International Legion Raid in Zaporizhzhia: Tactical Group "Revanche" (International Legion) cleared a RF dugout near Stepnogorsk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, resulting in one RF KIA and one captured (13:05 UTC, WarArchive, confidence MEDIUM).
UAF Destroys RF Armor and Logistics in Kharkiv: State Border Guard Service (DPSU) "Hart" brigade operators destroyed a RF tank and a fuel depot via FPV drones in the southern Kharkiv Oblast sector (13:09 UTC, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, confidence HIGH).
RF Aerospace Activity Intensifies: UAF Air Force reports active KAB (guided bomb) strikes targeting Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk Oblasts, alongside UAV swarms moving towards Dnipro from the west (12:52-13:07 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗСУ, confidence HIGH).
Ukrainian Fuel Crisis Deepens: Diesel prices in Ukraine surge to 88 UAH/liter due to RF strikes on port infrastructure and global supply chain shifts, severely impacting logistics, per industry expert Sergey Kuyun (12:55 UTC, Поддубный, confidence HIGH).
Disinformation Campaigns Active: Pro-Russian and foreign channels push unverified claims regarding Iranian ballistic missile strikes on Kyiv via Russian airspace and Iraqi allegations of Ukrainian sabotage cells (12:41-13:03 UTC, Alex Parker Returns / ЦАПЛІЄНКО, confidence LOW).

Operational picture (by sector)

Frontline weather as of 13:00 UTC: Kharkiv / Vovchansk 20.5C (light rain, wind 3.9 m/s), Luhansk / Svatove 26.2C (overcast, wind 4.2 m/s), Donetsk / Pokrovsk 26.7C (overcast, wind 4.6 m/s), Zaporizhzhia / Orikhiv 24.4C (overcast, wind 4.1 m/s), Kherson / Kherson 27.7C (partly cloudy, wind 4.5 m/s). Forecast: Widespread thunderstorms and rain expected across all sectors, with precipitation up to 7.5 mm in Kharkiv and 6.5 mm in Zaporizhzhia.

Kupiansk / Lyman: UAF General Staff reports repelling 7 RF attacks near Drobysheve, Lyman, Ozerne, Novoselivka, and Novomykhailivka; 3 engagements ongoing. RF conducted 1 attack towards Shiikivka (Kupiansk direction) (13:05 UTC, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, confidence HIGH).
South-Slobozhansky (Kharkiv / Sumy): RF conducted 11 attacks near Staritsa, Lyman, Chaikivka, Kozacha Lopan, Izbytske, Anyskyne, and Ambadne. UAF DPSU "Hart" brigade destroyed a RF tank and fuel depot in the southern Kharkiv sector (13:05-13:09 UTC, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ / ЦАПЛІЄНКО, confidence HIGH).
Kramatorsk / Kostiantynivka / Toretsk / Druzhkivka / Chasiv Yar / Pokrovsk: RF claims to have secured the "Heavy Equipment Plant" in the northern industrial zone of Konstantinovka, Donetsk Oblast (13:09 UTC, Сливочный каприз, confidence MEDIUM). UAF repelled 14 attacks on the Sloviansk axis, 4 on Kramatorsk, 15 on Kostiantynivka, and 18 on Pokrovsk (13:05 UTC, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, confidence HIGH).
Dnipro / Novopavlivka / Velyka Novosilka / Huliaipole / Orikhiv: UAF International Legion cleared a RF dugout near Stepnogorsk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast (1 killed, 1 captured) (13:05 UTC, WarArchive, confidence MEDIUM). UAF repelled 10 attacks on the Huliaipole axis and 1 on Orikhiv (13:05 UTC, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, confidence HIGH). RF struck a gas station in Zaporizhzhia city near the dam/bridge (12:42 UTC, Дневник Десантника, confidence MEDIUM).
Kherson / Southern Rear: No significant change.
Sumy / Chernihiv / Northern Border: RF conducted 36 strikes and 2 airstrikes in the North-Slobodansky and Kursk directions. Sumy city hit by an aviation strike; border villages in Sumy and Chernihiv oblasts shelled (13:05 UTC, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, confidence HIGH).
Kursk Grouping: No significant change.
Mykolaiv / Southern Coast: Nothing significant to report.
Odesa: Nothing significant to report.
Dnipropetrovsk / Kryvyi Rih: UAF Air Force tracks UAVs moving towards Dnipro from the west (13:00 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗСУ, confidence HIGH).
Crimea: Nothing significant to report.

Deep strikes & air defense

UAF Deep Strikes: UAF drone strikes on 25 July halted operations at the Tyumen Oil Refinery (Tyumenneft) in Western Siberia, damaging the diesel hydrotreating and high-octane gasoline units (13:02 UTC, ASTRA / 13:05 UTC, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, confidence HIGH). A UAF strike on 25 July in Kirillovka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, reportedly killed RF Col. Mikhail Ivanov, head of the Main Radio Frequency Center (GRChC) for the occupied region (13:01 UTC, Exilenova+, confidence MEDIUM).
RF Aerospace Campaign: UAF Air Force reports active KAB strikes targeting Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk Oblasts. UAV swarms tracked towards Dnipro from the west (12:52-13:07 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗСУ, confidence HIGH). RF struck a gas station in Zaporizhzhia city (12:42 UTC, Дневник Десантника, confidence MEDIUM).
Air Defense: Nothing significant to report beyond the above tracking.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

RF Tactical Posture: RF "Yuzhnaya" grouping claims to have secured the central district of Konstantinovka, utilizing psychological warfare by broadcasting a platoon leader's claimed direct communication with the Supreme Commander-in-Chief (13:02 UTC, MoD Russia, confidence MEDIUM). RF forces continue high-tempo attritional assaults, with 81 attacks reported by the UAF General Staff across the frontline in the last 24 hours (13:05 UTC, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, confidence HIGH).
RF Information Operations & Threats: RF military expert Rozhin compares the RF blockade of Ukrainian ports to Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to burn remaining Ukrainian grain terminals if RF terminals are struck (13:01 UTC, Colonelcassad, confidence MEDIUM). Pro-Russian channels push unverified claims of Iranian Khorramshahr ballistic missiles preparing to strike Kyiv via Russian airspace (12:41 UTC, Alex Parker Returns, confidence LOW - Disinformation).
RF Logistics & Internal Security: RF internal security remains active; a 61-year-old woman in Khmelnytskyi Oblast was sentenced to 15 years for spying for RF (including on her own son) and preparing a terrorist attack (13:00 UTC, Офіс Генерального прокурора, confidence HIGH).

Friendly activity (UAF)

Deep Strikes: Successful drone campaign continues, halting the Tyumen Oil Refinery and eliminating a key RF electronic warfare/radio control commander in Kirillovka (13:01-13:05 UTC, Exilenova+ / ASTRA / ЦАПЛІЄНКО, confidence HIGH/MEDIUM).
Tactical Operations: International Legion (Tactical Group "Revanche") conducted a successful raid on a RF dugout near Stepnogorsk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast (13:05 UTC, WarArchive, confidence MEDIUM). DPSU "Hart" brigade destroyed a RF tank and fuel depot in southern Kharkiv Oblast (13:09 UTC, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, confidence HIGH).
Defensive Adaptations: UAF General Staff reports repelling dozens of RF attacks across all major axes. Anecdotal evidence shows RF troops using improvised physical means (sticks) to intercept FPV drones, highlighting the intense close-quarters drone warfare environment (13:08 UTC, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, confidence HIGH).
Legal / Internal Security: Prosecutor General's Office secures a 15-year sentence for a Khmelnytskyi resident convicted of treason and terrorism preparation for RF (13:00 UTC, Офіс Генерального прокурора, confidence HIGH).

Information environment / disinformation

Iranian Missile Strike on Kyiv: Pro-Russian channel "Alex Parker Returns" claims Iran is preparing to strike Kyiv with Khorramshahr missiles via Russian airspace. No evidence supports this; assessed as a psychological operation (12:41 UTC, Alex Parker Returns, confidence LOW).
Iraqi Sabotage Cell: Iraqi National Security Adviser claims to have busted a Ukrainian sabotage cell responsible for bombings in Iraq. No evidence provided; assessed as political maneuvering/disinformation (13:03 UTC, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, confidence LOW).
Zelensky-Trump Meeting: An AI-generated fake image of Zelensky and Trump circulates alongside claims from the Financial Times that a meeting could revive peace talks. The image is demonstrably fake, though the FT diplomatic context may have basis (13:03 UTC, РБК-Україна, confidence LOW for image, MEDIUM for diplomatic context).
"Zuk-Boris" Meme: RF milblogger Fighterbomber posts a meme about "Zuk-Boris" visiting 6 airfields in 3 countries in 24 hours, using insect photos. Assessed as morale/PSYOP content (12:42 UTC, Fighterbomber, confidence LOW).

Outlook (next 6-12h)

Monitor BDA and satellite imagery for the Tyumen Oil Refinery strike to assess the long-term impact on RF Western Siberian fuel production.
Track RF ground operations in Konstantinovka, specifically around the "Heavy Equipment Plant" in the northern industrial zone, to verify RF claims of territorial control.
Observe RF aerospace activity, particularly KAB strikes in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk, and UAV swarms targeting Dnipro.
Monitor Ukrainian fuel market prices and logistics as the diesel shortage and price surge (88 UAH/liter) potentially impacts military and civilian supply chains.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

Tyumen Refinery BDA: Obtain satellite imagery to verify the extent of damage to the diesel hydrotreating and high-octane gasoline units at the Tyumen Oil Refinery.
Konstantinovka Frontline: Verify RF claims of securing the "Heavy Equipment Plant" in northern Konstantinovka via geospatial intelligence and frontline OSINT.
Kirillovka Strike BDA: Confirm the death of RF Col. Mikhail Ivanov and assess the impact on RF radio frequency control and EW capabilities in occupied Zaporizhzhia.
Ukrainian Fuel Logistics: Monitor the downstream effects of the diesel price surge and port infrastructure damage on UAF logistical movements and the civilian economy.