Sitrep 2026-07-25 11:36:39.479139+00

Situation Update (UTC)

Key updates since last sitrep

Zaporizhzhia KAB Strike Casualties: Zaporizhzhia OVA and DSNS confirmed 1 dead and 11 injured, including 3 children, following RF KAB strikes on a residential building in Zaporizhzhia, Zaporizhzhia Oblast (11:25 UTC, ASTRA, confidence HIGH).
Yekaterinburg Wildberries Strike Aftermath: Visual evidence and ASTRA reporting confirm a fire and panicked evacuation at the Wildberries logistics hub in Yekaterinburg, Sverdlovsk Oblast, following a UAF drone strike on the parking lot; the facility has since resumed operations, contradicting RF claims of a "planned evacuation" (11:16 UTC, ASTRA, confidence HIGH).
RF Deep Strike Claims on Ports: RF MoD claimed overnight strikes on port infrastructure in Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Izmail, including a cargo ship and tugs in Mykolaiv; independent verification is pending (11:26 UTC, Операция Z, confidence MEDIUM).
Tyumen Refinery Strike: Exilenova+ released video showing a massive fire and explosions at an oil refinery in Tyumen, Tyumen Oblast, claiming it was hit by "sanctioned drones" (11:20 UTC, Exilenova+, confidence MEDIUM).
Georgian Power Outage Sabotage Probe: Georgian special services opened a sabotage criminal case regarding massive power outages across the country on July 24-25 (11:23 UTC, ТАСС, confidence MEDIUM).
UAF Deep Strike Claims: Official Ukrainian sources claimed overnight strikes on a defense enterprise in Kirov, Tyumen refinery, Yekaterinburg logistics hub, Rostov fuel depot, and Caspian Sea vessels (Iranian cargo and warship) (11:30 UTC, Николаевский Ванёк, confidence MEDIUM).
RF Geran-4 Maritime Strike Claim: RF MoD claimed a Geran-4 Seeker UAV struck a bulk carrier transporting military cargo in the Black Sea; video shows pre-strike tracking but no impact (11:32 UTC, MoD Russia, confidence MEDIUM).
Kyiv Protest Escalation: Veteran Dmytro Koziatynskyi called for expanded protests in Kyiv at 19:00 UTC, demanding the return of Oleksandr Fedorov as Defense Minister (11:28 UTC, STERNENKO, confidence MEDIUM).

Operational picture (by sector)

Frontline weather as of 11:30 UTC: Kharkiv 24.6C (overcast), Luhansk 24.5C (light rain), Donetsk 20.3C (light rain), Zaporizhzhia 23.8C (overcast), Kherson 26.1C (overcast). Forecast: Rain expected in Luhansk (19.0mm) and Donetsk (16.9mm).

Kupiansk / Lyman / Kharkiv: Assessed state: RF attempting to encircle UAF forces and expand buffer zone. Change: No significant change reported this cycle.
Siversk / Sloviansk / Kramatorsk / Kostiantynivka: Assessed state: High-tempo RF attritional assaults. Change: RF milbloggers claim the elimination of UAF Major Ivan Revatsky near Kramatorsk (11:17 UTC, ТАСС, confidence LOW).
Chasiv Yar / Toretsk: Assessed state: Sustained RF pressure. Change: BBC/Reuters featured a report on a UAF 24th Brigade infantryman who spent 346 days in a bunker near Chasiv Yar, highlighting the grueling defensive conditions (11:17 UTC, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, confidence HIGH).
Pokrovsk / Dobropillia / Druzhkivka: Assessed state: RF actively concentrating assault infantry. Change: No significant change reported this cycle.
Novopavlivka / Velyka Novosilka / Huliaipole / Orikhiv / Zaporizhzhia: Assessed state: UAF conducting localized offensive operations; RF conducting active defense. Change: RF KAB strikes hit a residential building in Zaporizhzhia city, causing 1 dead and 11 injured (11:25 UTC, ASTRA, confidence HIGH).
Sumy / Chernihiv / Northern Border areas: Assessed state: RF cross-border strikes and ground incursions. Change: RF MoD claimed a Geran-4 Seeker UAV struck a UAF drone storage and preparation site near Nikitovka, Sumy Oblast (11:04 UTC, MoD Russia, confidence MEDIUM).
Odesa / Mykolaiv / Black Sea: Assessed state: RF maritime and aerospace threats. Change: RF MoD claimed strikes on port infrastructure in Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Izmail, including a cargo ship and tugs in Mykolaiv (11:26 UTC, Операция Z, confidence MEDIUM). RF MoD also claimed a Geran-4 struck a bulk carrier in the Black Sea (11:32 UTC, MoD Russia, confidence MEDIUM). UAF Air Force reported a group of UAVs heading towards Kryvyi Rih (11:14 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗСУ, confidence HIGH).
Kherson / Southern Rear: Assessed state: Dnieper River cross-fire and localized RF maneuvering. Change: No significant change.
Crimea / Southern Rear / Land Bridge: Assessed state: UAF deep strike targeting. Change: No significant change reported this cycle.
RF Interior (Rostov / Yekaterinburg / Kirov / Tyumen): Assessed state: UAF deep strikes on energy, logistics, and defense industry. Change: Visuals confirm a massive fire at an oil refinery in Tyumen (11:20 UTC, Exilenova+, confidence MEDIUM). Wildberries hub in Yekaterinburg resumed operations after a UAF drone strike on its parking lot (11:16 UTC, ASTRA, confidence HIGH). Official UAF claims confirm strikes on Kirov, Tyumen, Yekaterinburg, and Rostov (11:30 UTC, Николаевский Ванёк, confidence MEDIUM).
Kursk / Belgorod / Bryansk Sectors (RF Territory): Assessed state: UAF cross-border strikes. Change: No significant change reported this cycle.
Kyiv / Central Ukraine / Poltava: Assessed state: RF aerospace threats targeting rear infrastructure. Change: Protests planned in Kyiv at 19:00 UTC demanding the return of Fedorov as Defense Minister (11:28 UTC, STERNENKO, confidence MEDIUM).

Deep strikes & air defense

UAF Deep/Maritime Strikes:
- RF Interior: Official Ukrainian sources claimed overnight strikes on a defense enterprise in Kirov (~1200km from border), Tyumen oil refinery, Yekaterinburg logistics hub, and Rostov fuel depot (11:30 UTC, Николаевский Ванёк, confidence MEDIUM). Visuals confirm a massive fire at the Tyumen refinery (11:20 UTC, Exilenova+, confidence MEDIUM). ASTRA confirmed a fire at the Yekaterinburg Wildberries hub parking lot, though the facility resumed operations (11:16 UTC, ASTRA, confidence HIGH).
- Caspian Sea: UAF claimed strikes on Iranian cargo ships and a warship in the Caspian Sea. Confidence LOW due to lack of independent verification (11:30 UTC, Николаевский Ванёк).
RF Aerospace & Drone Campaign:
- Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RF KAB strikes hit a residential building in Zaporizhzhia city, causing 1 dead and 11 injured, including 3 children (11:25 UTC, ASTRA, confidence HIGH).
- Odesa / Mykolaiv / Black Sea: RF MoD claimed strikes on port infrastructure in Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Izmail, including a cargo ship and tugs in Mykolaiv (11:26 UTC, Операция Z, confidence MEDIUM). RF MoD also claimed a Geran-4 Seeker UAV struck a bulk carrier in the Black Sea; video shows pre-strike tracking but no impact (11:32 UTC, MoD Russia, confidence MEDIUM).
- Sumy Oblast: RF MoD claimed a Geran-4 Seeker UAV struck a UAF drone storage site near Nikitovka (11:04 UTC, MoD Russia, confidence MEDIUM).
- Kryvyi Rih: UAF Air Force reported a group of UAVs heading towards Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (11:14 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗСУ, confidence HIGH).

Enemy activity / threat assessment

RF Aerospace Targeting: Continued use of KABs against urban centers (Zaporizhzhia) and port/logistics infrastructure (Odesa, Mykolaiv, Izmail). RF MoD claims broad strikes on maritime logistics, including commercial vessels allegedly carrying military cargo.
RF Ground Tactics: RF milbloggers claim the elimination of a UAF Major near Kramatorsk. RF drone units (e.g., "Far Eastern Winds", "Archangel Special Forces") continue active FPV operations targeting UAF infantry, vehicles, and C4ISR nodes.
RF Information Operations: RF channels are amplifying claims of massive UAF drone losses (1060 shot down in a day) and attempting to minimize the impact of UAF deep strikes on domestic logistics (Yekaterinburg Wildberries).
Most Likely COA: RF will continue aerospace saturation against Ukrainian energy, port logistics, and urban centers, while maintaining attritional ground assaults and FPV drone dominance at the tactical level.
Most Dangerous COA: RF successfully degrades Odesa/Mykolaiv port logistics and energy grid, while leveraging stabilized domestic fuel supplies (despite refinery strikes) to sustain prolonged ground offensives.

Friendly activity (UAF)

Deep Strike Execution: Official sources claimed coordinated strikes on military, energy, and logistics infrastructure in Kirov, Tyumen, Yekaterinburg, Rostov, and the Caspian Sea. Visuals confirm fires at Tyumen refinery and Yekaterinburg Wildberries (11:30 UTC, Николаевский Ванёк; 11:20 UTC, Exilenova+; 11:16 UTC, ASTRA, confidence MEDIUM/HIGH).
Tactical Operations: 6th SOF Rangers Regiment conducted a coordinated raid using FPV drones and infantry assault in a wooded area (11:05 UTC, РБК-Україна, confidence MEDIUM). UAF drone operators (NACHTIGALL) struck RF infantry on a rural road (11:07 UTC, Оперативний ЗСУ, confidence HIGH).
Internal Security / Civil Defense: UAF Air Force tracking a group of UAVs heading towards Kryvyi Rih (11:14 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗСУ, confidence HIGH).

Information environment / disinformation

Caspian Sea Naval Strikes: UAF claims of striking Iranian cargo ships and a warship in the Caspian Sea remain highly suspect (LOW confidence) due to lack of AIS/maritime tracking corroboration (11:30 UTC, Николаевский Ванёк).
Bab-el-Mandeb Tanker Attack: RF channels are amplifying a fabricated claim that the Saudi tanker "NCC MASA" was attacked in the Bab-el-Mandeb strait. AIS data contradicts this, showing the ship in the Red Sea with a future timestamp (July 21, 2026), indicating disinformation (11:15 UTC, Colonelcassad, confidence HIGH for disinformation intent).
Ukrainian "Traitors" Sabotage: RF propagandists claim Ukrainian leadership intentionally delayed strikes on the "Armada" exhibition to kill civilians, using manipulated obituaries with future dates (24.07.26) to support the narrative (11:06 UTC, Alex Parker Returns, confidence HIGH for disinformation intent).
Yekaterinburg Wildberries Damage: RF milbloggers and corporate PR are claiming a "planned evacuation" and minimal damage at the Yekaterinburg Wildberries hub, directly contradicted by ASTRA video showing panicked staff and fires (11:16 UTC, ASTRA, confidence HIGH for propaganda intent).
RF MoD Daily Briefings: RF MoD released standard daily propaganda claims of massive UAF losses (1060 drones shot down) and territorial advances, lacking independent verification (11:25 UTC, Alex Parker Returns; 11:26 UTC, Операция Z, confidence LOW).

Outlook (next 6-12h)

Weather Impact: Forecasted rain in Luhansk (19.0mm) and Donetsk (16.9mm) will further degrade optical ISR and FPV drone effectiveness, likely shifting tactical emphasis to artillery and heavy aviation (FABs) where cloud cover permits.
Deep Strike BDA: Monitor satellite imagery to quantify the actual damage to the Tyumen Oil Refinery and assess the true impact on RF energy logistics, despite RF claims of minimal disruption.
Port Operations: Monitor the operational status of Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Izmail ports following RF claims of strikes on cargo ships and infrastructure, assessing the medium-term impact on Ukraine's maritime logistics.
Kyiv Protests: Monitor Franko Square in Kyiv around 19:00 UTC to assess the size and nature of the protests demanding the return of Fedorov as Defense Minister, evaluating potential internal political friction.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

Caspian Sea BDA: Task GEOINT/OSINT to verify the status of vessels and warships in the Caspian Sea via AIS data and satellite imagery to confirm or deny UAF strike claims.
Tyumen Refinery BDA: Obtain high-resolution satellite imagery of the Tyumen oil refinery to verify the extent of the fire and structural damage reported by Exilenova+.
Black Sea Maritime Strike BDA: Cross-reference RF claims of a Geran-4 strike on a bulk carrier with AIS tracking data and satellite imagery to identify the vessel and assess damage.
Mykolaiv/Odesa/Izmail Port Damage: Monitor satellite imagery to assess cumulative damage to port infrastructure and verify RF claims of striking a cargo ship and tugs in Mykolaiv.
Georgian Power Grid Sabotage: Task HUMINT/SIGINT to monitor the Georgian special service investigation into the July 24-25 power outages to determine if RF or internal actors were responsible.