Sitrep 2026-07-25 04:06:38.519013+00

Situation Update (UTC)

Key updates since last sitrep

Massive UAF UAV Campaign on RF Interior: RF authorities reported intercepting over 250 UAF UAVs targeting the Moscow region overnight, with 16 destroyed near the capital and 210 claimed destroyed overall by the RF MoD. Power outages were reported in Simferopol and Bakhchysarai districts in Crimea, and 5 individuals were wounded in Rostov Oblast (03:45 UTC, Два майора; 04:00 UTC, ТАСС, confidence HIGH for attacks, MEDIUM for specific intercept counts).
RF Ground Advances in Kharkiv & Sumy: RF forces (126th MSP, 34th Gv OMSBr) claimed the capture of Zakharivka and Ivashkine in the Kharkiv direction, while continuing ground assaults in the Sumy direction, including Ulanove, Mohrytsia, and Prokhody. UAF reportedly conducted local counterattacks near Mohrytsia (03:45 UTC, Два майора, confidence MEDIUM for territorial changes, HIGH for ongoing combat).
Logistics Infrastructure Damage in Crimea: OSINT imagery confirms the Wildberries distribution center in Simferopol was completely destroyed by fire following a UAF strike the previous day, with structural collapse and ongoing smoke observed (04:02 UTC, РБК-Україна, confidence HIGH for damage).
Internal Security Incident in Chernihiv: A woman reportedly handed a package containing explosives to TCC (mobilization center) personnel at a checkpoint in Chernihiv Oblast (03:54 UTC, ТАСС, confidence LOW for details, MEDIUM for incident occurrence).
UAF Daily Loss Claims: The Ukrainian General Staff reported destroying 1,450 RF personnel, 78 artillery systems, and 1,596 UAVs over the past 24 hours, bringing cumulative RF personnel losses to approximately 1.43 million (03:53 UTC, РБК-Україна; 03:55 UTC, Оперативний ЗСУ, confidence MEDIUM as it reflects UAF official claims).

Operational picture (by sector)

Frontline weather as of 04:00 UTC: Kharkiv 17.4C (overcast), Luhansk 18.0C (overcast), Donetsk 18.0C (overcast), Zaporizhzhia 18.8C (overcast), Kherson 17.6C (overcast). Forecast: Heavy rain in Luhansk (31.2 mm), light rain showers in Donetsk (42.8 mm), light rain in Kharkiv (5.8 mm) and Zaporizhzhia (4.7 mm) over the next 24h. Kherson remains dry (0.0 mm).

Kupiansk / Lyman / Kharkiv: Assessed state: RF attempting to encircle UAF forces and expand buffer zone. Change: RF milbloggers claim 126th MSP and 34th Gv OMSBr captured Zakharivka and Ivashkine in Vovchansk direction. Fighting continues in western Kupiansk south of the Oskil River (03:45 UTC, Два майора).
Siversk / Sloviansk / Kramatorsk / Kostiantynivka: Assessed state: High-tempo RF attritional assaults. Change: Active combat reported near Nikolaypolle (Konstantinovka direction), with RF forces claiming to clear buildings in Konstantinovka (03:45 UTC, Два майора).
Chasiv Yar / Toretsk: Assessed state: Sustained RF pressure. Change: No significant change reported this cycle.
Pokrovsk / Dobropillia / Druzhkivka: Assessed state: RF actively concentrating assault infantry. Change: No significant change reported this cycle.
Novopavlivka / Velyka Novosilka / Huliaipole / Orikhiv / Zaporizhzhia: Assessed state: RF conducting localized assaults and drone warfare. Change: RF "Vostok" group claimed to capture strongpoints west of Oleksandrivka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) and advance towards Zelene. UAF counterattacked near Stepnohirsk (Zaporizhzhia Oblast) (03:45 UTC, Два майора).
Sumy / Chernihiv / Northern Border areas: Assessed state: RF cross-border strikes and ground incursions. Change: RF "Sever" group continuing infantry assaults in Shostka and Sumy districts (Ulanove, Mohrytsia, Prokhody). UAF conducted two counterattacks near Mohrytsia. Internal security incident: explosives handed to TCC in Chernihiv (03:45 UTC, Два майора; 03:54 UTC, ТАСС).
Odesa / Mykolaiv / Black Sea: Assessed state: RF maritime and aerospace threats. Change: RF continued strikes on Odesa and Mykolaiv ports and Black Sea merchant fleet (03:45 UTC, Два майора).
Kherson / Southern Rear: Assessed state: Dnieper River cross-fire and localized RF maneuvering. Change: RF sources report 3 civilian deaths and 12 wounded in Kherson Oblast (Oleshky, Radensk, Rodne) due to UAF shelling over the previous 24 hours (03:45 UTC, Два майора).
Crimea / Southern Rear / Land Bridge: Assessed state: UAF deep strike targeting. Change: Wildberries logistics center in Simferopol completely burned out following previous day's strike. Power outages reported in Simferopol and Bakhchysarai districts (03:45 UTC, Два майора; 04:02 UTC, РБК-Україна).
RF Interior (Rostov / Moscow / Saratov / Kirov): Assessed state: UAF deep strikes on energy, logistics, and defense industry. Change: Massive UAF UAV wave targeted Moscow region (>250 UAVs). 3-day mourning declared in Kirov Oblast for Aviatek plant attack. 5 wounded in Rostov Oblast (03:45 UTC, Два майора; 03:59 UTC, ТАСС; 04:00 UTC, ТАСС).
Kursk / Belgorod / Bryansk Sectors (RF Territory): Assessed state: UAF cross-border strikes. Change: Ongoing drone and rocket strikes causing civilian casualties in Belgorod (Kazachya Lisitsa, Shebekino, Dubove) and Kursk (Shchekino). 40 wounded and 1 dead reported in Belgorod over the previous 24h (03:45 UTC, Два майора).
Kyiv / Central Ukraine / Poltava: Assessed state: RF aerospace threats targeting rear infrastructure. Change: RF confirmed striking a facility near Kyiv on 24 July where a drone exhibition was held (corroborates previous daily report) (03:45 UTC, Два майора).

Deep strikes & air defense

UAF Deep/Maritime Strikes:
- Moscow Region: RF authorities (Sobyanin) reported >250 UAF UAVs directed at the Moscow region overnight; 16 destroyed near Moscow, 210 claimed destroyed overall by RF MoD (03:45 UTC, Два майора, confidence MEDIUM for intercept counts).
- Kirov Oblast: 3-day mourning declared due to UAF strike on an enterprise (Aviatek plant) (03:59 UTC, ТАСС, confidence HIGH for mourning, MEDIUM for attribution).
- Rostov Oblast: 5 wounded in massive overnight air attack; UAVs and missiles intercepted (04:00 UTC, ТАСС, confidence HIGH for attack, MEDIUM for intercepts).
- Crimea: Power outages in Simferopol and Bakhchysarai districts. Wildberries distribution center in Simferopol completely destroyed by fire (03:45 UTC, Два майора; 04:02 UTC, РБК-Україна, confidence HIGH for damage).
RF Aerospace & Drone Campaign:
- Kyiv Oblast: RF confirmed striking a facility near Kyiv on 24 July hosting a drone exhibition (03:45 UTC, Два майора, confidence HIGH for strike occurrence).
- Odesa / Mykolaiv: Continued RF strikes on ports and Black Sea merchant fleet (03:45 UTC, Два майора, confidence MEDIUM).
- Multi-axis UAVs: Ongoing strikes across frontline regions, including FPV drone strikes on UAF command nodes by the 263rd Separate Reconnaissance Battalion (04:00 UTC, Воин DV, confidence MEDIUM).

Enemy activity / threat assessment

RF Ground Operations: RF "Sever" group maintaining pressure in Sumy and Kharkiv directions, claiming captures of Zakharivka and Ivashkine. "Vostok" group advancing in Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia. Attritional assaults continue in Konstantinovka (Nikolaypolle).
RF Aerospace & Strategic: Executing precision strikes on high-value UAF nodes (drone exhibition near Kyiv) and maintaining pressure on southern ports. Utilizing FPV drones to target UAF electronic and command infrastructure.
Most Likely COA: RF will continue localized ground advances in Kharkiv/Sumy and attritional assaults in the east, while utilizing aerospace assets to target UAF logistics and drone infrastructure.
Most Dangerous COA: RF exploits the heavy rain forecast in Luhansk/Donetsk to mask mechanized movements or artillery repositioning, while launching coordinated missile/drone strikes on UAF rear assembly areas.

Friendly activity (UAF)

Air Defense & Deep Strikes: UAF executed a massive UAV campaign targeting RF interior, specifically the Moscow region, Kirov, Rostov, and Crimea, causing significant infrastructure damage (Wildberries Simferopol) and civilian casualties.
Ground Operations: UAF conducted local counterattacks near Mohrytsia (Sumy direction) and Stepnohirsk (Zaporizhzhia direction) to hinder RF advances.
Internal Security: TCC personnel in Chernihiv Oblast intercepted an explosive package handed over by a civilian (03:54 UTC, ТАСС, confidence LOW for details).

Information environment / disinformation

UAF Loss Infographic: The UAF General Staff released a cumulative loss infographic for 25 July 2026, claiming ~1.43M RF personnel losses. This is standard UAF official reporting; independent verification of daily increments (e.g., +1,450 personnel, +1,596 UAVs) remains MEDIUM (03:53 UTC, РБК-Україна; 03:55 UTC, Оперативний ЗСУ).
RF Propaganda Narratives: RF milbloggers emphasizing civilian casualties in Belgorod/Kursk and framing UAF strikes as terrorism, while highlighting RF tactical successes (Zakharivka, Ivashkine) to maintain domestic morale (03:45 UTC, Два майора).

Outlook (next 6-12h)

Weather Impact: Heavy rain forecast in Luhansk (31.2mm) and Donetsk (42.8mm) will likely degrade FPV drone and optical ISR operations, shifting tactical focus to artillery, KABs, and ground maneuvers under reduced visibility.
UAV Strike BDA: Monitor for further damage assessments in Moscow, Rostov, and Crimea following the massive overnight UAF UAV wave.
Sumy/Kharkiv Frontline: Watch for independent geospatial verification of RF claims regarding the capture of Zakharivka and Ivashkine, and assess the outcome of UAF counterattacks near Mohrytsia.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

Moscow/Rostov BDA: Task SIGINT/GEOINT to assess actual damage to infrastructure in the Moscow and Rostov regions following the >250 UAV wave.
Kharkiv/Sumy Geolocation: Verify RF claims of capturing Zakharivka and Ivashkine via satellite imagery and OSINT geolocation.
Chernihiv TCC Incident: Gather local law enforcement or military reports to verify the details of the explosive package incident at the TCC checkpoint.
Weather-Adjusted ISR: Prioritize SAR and signals intelligence over optical ISR in the eastern sector due to forecasted heavy precipitation.