Sitrep 2026-07-25 01:32:47.988121+00

Situation Update (UTC)

Key updates since last sitrep

Kyiv Ballistic Threat Cleared: UAF Air Force and Kyiv City Military Administration announced the cancellation of the ballistic missile threat and the subsequent air raid alert for Kyiv, indicating the threat was neutralized or diverted (01:06-01:07 UTC, КМВА / Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence HIGH).
RF Claims Advances near Kostiantynivka: Russian milbloggers and TASS report RF forces pushed UAF out of Osykove and commenced fighting for Oleksiivo-Druzhkivka near Kostiantynivka (Donetsk Oblast) (01:03 UTC, ТАСС / Colonelcassad, confidence LOW for territorial change, HIGH for RF claim).
Escalating Strikes on Rostov-on-Don: Multiple sources report a massive combined attack (UAVs and cruise missiles) on Rostov-on-Don, with active air defense engagements and confirmed fires in industrial areas; specific targets remain unverified (01:06-01:28 UTC, Операция Z / Exilenova+ / РБК-Україна, confidence MEDIUM).
Expanded RF Aerospace Campaign: UAF Air Force reported RF dropping KABs on Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Sumy oblasts, alongside launching strike UAVs towards Mykolaiv, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Sumy regions (01:02-01:16 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence HIGH).
RF FPV Strike in Zaporizhzhia: RF 63rd Separate Special Forces Company (Vostok grouping) claimed a successful FPV drone strike on a camouflaged UAF UAV command post in the Zaporizhzhia direction (01:00 UTC, Воин DV, confidence MEDIUM).

Operational picture (by sector)

Frontline weather as of 01:30 UTC: Kharkiv 15.7C (overcast), Luhansk 15.2C (overcast), Donetsk 16.9C (overcast), Zaporizhzhia 16.7C (overcast), Kherson 17.2C (overcast). Forecast: Heavy rain in Luhansk (51.3 mm) and light rain showers in Donetsk (38.1 mm) over the next 24h.

Kupiansk / Lyman / Kharkiv: Assessed state: RF attempting to encircle UAF forces. Change: RF dropped KABs on Kharkiv Oblast and launched strike UAVs towards Slobozhanske (01:03-01:07 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence HIGH).
Siversk / Sloviansk / Kramatorsk / Kostiantynivka: Assessed state: High-tempo RF attritional assaults. Change: RF claims to have captured Osykove and initiated assaults on Oleksiivo-Druzhkivka near Kostiantynivka (01:03 UTC, ТАСС, confidence LOW).
Chasiv Yar / Toretsk: Assessed state: Sustained RF pressure. Change: No significant change reported this cycle.
Pokrovsk / Dobropillia / Druzhkivka: Assessed state: RF actively concentrating assault infantry. Change: No significant change reported this cycle.
Novopavlivka / Velyka Novosilka / Huliaipole / Orikhiv / Zaporizhzhia: Assessed state: RF conducting localized assaults and drone warfare. Change: RF 63rd Separate Special Forces Company claimed an FPV strike on a UAF UAV command post in the Zaporizhzhia direction (01:00 UTC, Воин DV, confidence MEDIUM).
Sumy / Chernihiv / Northern Border areas: Assessed state: RF cross-border strikes. Change: RF launched strike UAVs towards Ichnia (Chernihiv) and northern Sumy, and dropped KABs on Sumy Oblast (01:07-01:16 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence HIGH).
Odesa / Mykolaiv / Black Sea: Assessed state: RF maritime and port interdiction. Change: RF launched strike UAVs towards Snihurivka in Mykolaiv Oblast (01:02 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence HIGH).
Kherson / Southern Rear: Assessed state: Dnieper River cross-fire. Change: No significant change.
Crimea / Southern Rear / Land Bridge: Assessed state: UAF deep strike targeting. Change: No significant change reported this cycle.
RF Interior (Rostov): Assessed state: UAF deep strikes on energy, logistics, and defense industry. Change: Massive combined attack (UAVs/cruise missiles) reported on Rostov-on-Don with active air defense and industrial fires (01:06-01:28 UTC, Операция Z / Exilenova+, confidence MEDIUM).
Kursk / Belgorod / Bryansk Sectors (RF Territory): Assessed state: UAF cross-border strikes. Change: Missile danger reported in Kursk, Bryansk, and Belgorod regions (01:06 UTC, Операция Z, confidence MEDIUM).
Kyiv / Central Ukraine: Assessed state: RF aerospace threats. Change: Ballistic missile threat and air raid alert cancelled for Kyiv (01:06-01:07 UTC, КМВА / Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence HIGH).

Deep strikes & air defense

UAF Deep/Maritime Strikes:
- Rostov-on-Don: Massive combined attack involving UAVs and cruise missiles. Visual evidence confirms fires in industrial areas. RF claims air defense is actively intercepting threats. Specific targets and damage extent remain unverified (01:06-01:28 UTC, Операция Z / Exilenova+ / РБК-Україна, confidence MEDIUM).
RF Aerospace & Drone Campaign:
- Kyiv: Ballistic missile threat from the north was declared and subsequently cancelled, indicating successful interception or threat diversion (01:06-01:07 UTC, КМВА / Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence HIGH).
- Frontline Oblasts: RF dropped KABs on Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Sumy oblasts (01:03-01:16 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence HIGH).
- Rear Areas: RF launched strike UAVs towards Snihurivka (Mykolaiv), Ichnia (Chernihiv), Slobozhanske (Kharkiv), and northern Sumy (01:02-01:16 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence HIGH).
Air Defense Activity:
- RF air defense visually reported engaging targets over Rostov-on-Don (01:06-01:08 UTC, Операция Z / Exilenova+, confidence MEDIUM).

Enemy activity / threat assessment

RF Ground Operations: RF milbloggers claim tactical advances near Kostiantynivka (Osykove, Oleksiivo-Druzhkivka), continuing the attritional pressure in the Donetsk sector.
RF Aerospace & Strategic: RF is executing a widespread aerospace campaign, utilizing KABs across three frontline oblasts and launching strike UAVs deep into northern and southern Ukraine. Concurrently, RF air defense is heavily engaged in Rostov-on-Don against a complex UAF strike package.
RF Drone Operations: RF continues to integrate specialized drone units (e.g., VBS battalion) and utilize FPV drones to target high-value UAF command and control nodes, as evidenced by the claimed strike in Zaporizhzhia.
Most Likely COA: RF will maintain its multi-vector aerospace saturation strikes while continuing localized, high-tempo ground assaults in the east, leveraging FPV drones to degrade UAF tactical coordination.
Most Dangerous COA: RF successfully identifies and strikes a critical UAF command node or logistics hub in the rear using massed UAVs or KABs, causing significant operational disruption.

Friendly activity (UAF)

Tactical Operations: UAF Air Force successfully tracked and managed the ballistic missile threat to Kyiv, resulting in the cancellation of the alert. UAF units continue to defend against RF ground assaults near Kostiantynivka.
Deep Strikes: UAF launched a complex, multi-vector strike package (UAVs and cruise missiles) against Rostov-on-Don, successfully igniting fires in industrial areas and forcing widespread RF air defense activations.

Information environment / disinformation

Lviv Conscription Narrative: Pro-Russian channels (e.g., TRUKHA) are circulating a video depicting a physical altercation between TCC personnel and a civilian in Lviv, framing it as forced conscription. The video contains propaganda watermarks and lacks context, aiming to fuel disinformation regarding UAF mobilization practices (01:03 UTC, Colonelcassad, confidence HIGH for propaganda intent).
Rostov Strike Amplification: Russian milbloggers and OSINT channels are amplifying footage of fires in Rostov-on-Don. While the fires are visually confirmed, the specific targets and success of the "attack" are being exaggerated for psychological effect pending official verification (01:08-01:28 UTC, Exilenova+ / РБК-Україна, confidence MEDIUM).

Outlook (next 6-12h)

Rostov-on-Don Damage Assessment: Monitor for satellite imagery and official RF statements to identify the specific industrial facilities struck and quantify the logistical or production impact.
Kostiantynivka Frontline Verification: Task GEOINT to verify RF claims of capturing Osykove and advancing on Oleksiivo-Druzhkivka.
Weather Impact on Operations: Heavy rain forecasted for Luhansk (51.3 mm) and light rain showers for Donetsk (38.1 mm) will likely degrade FPV drone operations, optical surveillance, and ground mobility in the eastern sector over the next 24 hours.
UAV/KAB Impact Assessment: Await UAF General Staff reports on the impact of RF strike UAVs and KABs across Mykolaiv, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Sumy oblasts.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

Rostov-on-Don Target Identification: Task GEOINT to geolocate the industrial fires in Rostov-on-Don and assess damage to determine if military logistics, energy, or defense industry nodes were struck.
Kostiantynivka Territorial Changes: Verify RF claims of territorial gains near Osykove and Oleksiivo-Druzhkivka using recent satellite imagery and frontline geolocation data.
Kyiv Ballistic Intercept Details: Obtain details on the specific intercept system used or the trajectory of the ballistic missile threat directed at Kyiv to assess RF strike accuracy and UAF air defense coverage.
RF VBS Battalion Capabilities: Collect further intelligence on the "VBS" volunteer battalions and their drone production/deployment capabilities to assess the scale of RF's specialized drone warfare integration.