Sitrep 2026-07-24 18:54:24.852272+00

Situation Update (UTC)

Key updates since last sitrep

RF Ground Advances in Zaporizhzhia & Sloviansk: RF forces claimed advances in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (capturing strongpoints near Barvynka, reaching the Verkhnia Tersa riverbed near Dolynka) and the Sloviansk direction (enveloping Mykolaivka from the north, clearing territory towards Piskunivka) (18:31 UTC, Дневник Десантника, confidence MEDIUM).
UAF Deep Strike on Ulyanovsk Refinery: Visual evidence confirms a UAF strike on the NS OIL refinery in Novospasskoye (Ulyanovsk Oblast), causing significant fires, despite the facility deploying extensive multi-level anti-drone netting (18:44 UTC, Exilenova+, confidence HIGH).
Wildberries Logistics Disruption in Crimea: Wildberries restricted deliveries of most goods to Crimea and Sevastopol, with items appearing as out of stock in the app, indicating ongoing logistical degradation in the annexed peninsula (18:50 UTC, Alex Parker Returns, confidence MEDIUM).
RF Aerospace & Drone Campaign: RF MoD claimed the destruction of 210 Ukrainian UAVs across multiple regions over a 12-hour period, while RF forces launched KABs targeting Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv Oblasts, and a drone strike damaged residential infrastructure in Kharkiv's Saltivskyi district (18:41 UTC, ASTRA / Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Олег Синєгубов, confidence MEDIUM).
UAF Humanitarian & Tactical Adaptation: Elements of the 93rd Brigade's "Corvus" company successfully utilized a ground robot (NRK) to evacuate an elderly civilian injured by an RF FPV drone in Druzhkivka (Donetsk Oblast) to medical facilities (18:26 UTC, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, confidence HIGH).
International Diplomatic Movements: The US and UK are planning a high-level meeting in London next week to discuss forming an international coalition to protect shipping in the Strait of Hormuz (18:31 UTC, Оперативний ЗСУ, confidence MEDIUM).

Operational picture (by sector)

Frontline weather as of 18:45 UTC: Overcast conditions across all sectors (99-100% cloud cover), temperatures ranging from 18.2C in Kharkiv to 20.9C in Kherson, with light winds (0.5-1.4 m/s) and no current precipitation. Light rain is forecast for Kharkiv, Luhansk, and Kherson later today.

Kupiansk / Lyman / Kharkiv: Assessed state: Positional fighting and RF cross-border pressure. Change: RF drone strike damaged a residential building in Saltivskyi district, Kharkiv, injuring one civilian. RF also launched KABs targeting Kharkiv Oblast (18:28-18:44 UTC, Ігор Терехов / Олег Синєгубов / Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence HIGH).
Siversk / Sloviansk / Kramatorsk: Assessed state: High-tempo RF attritional assaults. Change: RF milbloggers claim advances from Kryva Luka along the Siverskyi Donets towards Starodubivka (enveloping Mykolaivka from the north), and clearing territory from Rai-Oleksandrivka to Piskunivka, pressing towards Orikhuvatka (18:31 UTC, Дневник Десантника, confidence MEDIUM).
Chasiv Yar / Kostiantynivka / Toretsk: Assessed state: Sustained RF pressure. Change: No significant change.
Pokrovsk / Dobropillia / Druzhkivka: Assessed state: RF actively concentrating assault infantry and armor. Change: RF claims capture of Belitskoye involving the 5th Brigade and 90th Tank Division. UAF 152nd Jäger Brigade reported using BM-21 Grad to disrupt RF assault preparations, noting RF reliance on small infantry groups without armor. In Druzhkivka, UAF 93rd Brigade used a ground robot to evacuate a civilian injured by an FPV drone (18:25-18:44 UTC, Colonelcassad / ЦАПЛІЄНКО / БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, confidence MEDIUM for RF claims, HIGH for UAF actions).
Novopavlivka / Velyka Novosilka / Huliaipole / Orikhiv / Primorsky: Assessed state: RF conducting localized assaults. Change: RF claims advances in Zaporizhzhia direction, capturing strongpoints near Barvynka, reaching the Verkhnia Tersa riverbed near Dolynka/Kopani, and expanding control west of Aleksandrivka (18:31 UTC, Дневник Десантника, confidence MEDIUM).
Sumy / Chernihiv / Northern Border areas: Assessed state: RF cross-border strikes and localized ground pressure. Change: No significant change.
Dnipropetrovsk / Central Rear: Assessed state: Persistent RF aerospace threats and artillery pressure. Change: RF launched KABs targeting the oblast (18:23 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence HIGH).
Zaporizhzhia: Assessed state: RF aerospace targeting and ground pressure. Change: RF claimed a strike on a bridge connecting Gagarin St and Pushkin Sq in Zaporizhzhia city (18:31 UTC, Дневник Десантник, confidence MEDIUM).
Odesa / Mykolaiv / Black Sea: Assessed state: RF maritime and port interdiction. Change: RF claimed night strikes on Odesa, Izmail, and Mykolaiv ports, hitting warehouses and a dry cargo ship. An explosion was reported on the bulk carrier Christiana B near the Romanian coast (UNCONFIRMED) (18:31 UTC, Дневник Десантника, confidence MEDIUM for port strikes, LOW for maritime incident).
Kherson / Southern Rear: Assessed state: Dnieper River cross-fire. Change: No significant change.
Crimea / Southern Rear / Land Bridge: Assessed state: UAF deep strike targeting. Change: Wildberries restricted deliveries of most goods to Crimea and Sevastopol, indicating logistical strain (18:50 UTC, Alex Parker Returns, confidence MEDIUM).
RF Interior: Assessed state: UAF deep strikes on energy, logistics, and defense industry. Change: Strike confirmed on NS OIL refinery in Novospasskoye (Ulyanovsk Oblast), causing fires despite extensive anti-drone netting. RF MoD claimed 210 UAVs shot down over 12 hours. RF Ministry of Justice expanded the "foreign agents" registry (18:35-18:44 UTC, Exilenova+ / ASTRA / Colonelcassad, confidence HIGH for strike, MEDIUM for RF claims).
Kursk / Belgorod / Bryansk Sectors (RF Territory): Assessed state: UAF cross-border strikes and active defense. Change: RF claimed FSB prevented a terrorist attack in Moscow. RF air defense claimed to have shot down 13 "Flamingo" cruise missiles overnight (UNCONFIRMED) (18:31 UTC, Дневник Десантника, confidence MEDIUM for FSB claim, LOW for missile intercepts).
Romania / NATO Flank: Assessed state: Border security. Change: Explosion reported on the bulk carrier Christiana B near the Romanian coast (UNCONFIRMED) (18:31 UTC, Дневник Десантника, confidence LOW).
Kyiv / Central Ukraine: Assessed state: RF aerospace threats. Change: No significant change.
Middle East / Global: Assessed state: Regional escalation. Change: US and UK planning high-level meeting in London next week to form a coalition to protect shipping in the Strait of Hormuz (18:31 UTC, Оперативний ЗСУ, confidence MEDIUM).

Deep strikes & air defense

UAF Deep/Maritime Strikes:
- RF Energy/Logistics: Strike confirmed on the NS OIL refinery in Novospasskoye (Ulyanovsk Oblast). Visuals show thick black smoke and fires. The facility is protected by extensive multi-level anti-drone netting, which reportedly caused some UAVs to detonate over reservoirs without igniting them (18:44 UTC, Exilenova+, confidence HIGH for strike/fire, MEDIUM for netting effectiveness).
RF Aerospace & Drone Campaign:
- Frontline & Rear Strikes: RF launched KABs targeting Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. A drone strike damaged a residential building in Saltivskyi district, Kharkiv, injuring one civilian (18:23-18:44 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Ігор Терехов / Олег Синєгубов, confidence HIGH).
- Port Infrastructure: RF claimed night strikes on Odesa, Izmail, and Mykolaiv ports, targeting warehouses, fuel tanks, and a dry cargo ship (18:31 UTC, Дневник Десантника, confidence MEDIUM).
- RF MoD Claims: Claimed destruction of 210 Ukrainian UAVs across 15+ regions, Crimea, and maritime areas over a 12-hour period. Also claimed interception of 13 "Flamingo" cruise missiles overnight (UNCONFIRMED) (18:31-18:41 UTC, Дневник Десантника / ASTRA, confidence MEDIUM for drone claims, LOW for missile claims).
Air Defense Activity: RF claims high interception rates for UAF drone swarms. UAF Air Force actively tracking multi-axis KAB and drone threats.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

RF Ground Operations: RF continues to assert momentum in the Zaporizhzhia and Sloviansk directions, claiming localized advances and envelopment maneuvers. In the Pokrovsk direction, RF claims the capture of Belitskoye involving the 90th Tank Division, though UAF reports indicate RF is relying heavily on small infantry assault groups with minimal armor support.
RF Aerospace & Maritime: Sustained high-tempo aerospace campaign utilizing KABs against Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv Oblasts, and drones against Kharkiv city. Continued targeting of Black Sea/Azov port infrastructure.
RF Internal / Manpower & Logistics: RF Ministry of Justice expanded the "foreign agents" registry, indicating continued internal political tightening. Logistical disruptions in Crimea are evidenced by Wildberries restricting deliveries to the peninsula.
Most Likely COA: RF will continue attritional ground assaults in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia using small infantry groups, while maintaining a high-tempo aerospace campaign targeting Ukrainian energy, logistics, and port infrastructure.
Most Dangerous COA: A successful breakthrough in the Pokrovsk or Zaporizhzhia sectors exploiting UAF defensive vulnerabilities, coupled with a saturation aerospace strike that degrades UAF air defense and critical infrastructure.

Friendly activity (UAF)

Command & Strategic Posture: Dnipropetrovsk OVA reported significant progress in regional energy resilience, with 1.3 GW of decentralized generation capacity (wind, solar, cogeneration) added in H1 2026 (18:30 UTC, Олександр Ганжа, confidence HIGH).
Tactical Adaptations: 93rd Brigade "Corvus" company successfully utilized a ground robot (NRK) for medical evacuation of a civilian under FPV drone threat in Druzhkivka. 152nd Jäger Brigade used BM-21 Grad MLRS to preemptively disrupt RF assault preparations in the Pokrovsk direction (18:26-18:44 UTC, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС / ЦАПЛІЄНКО, confidence HIGH/MEDIUM).
Deep Strikes: Continued disruption of RF energy and logistics infrastructure, evidenced by the strike on the NS OIL refinery in Ulyanovsk Oblast and ongoing logistical degradation in Crimea (18:44-18:50 UTC, Exilenova+ / Alex Parker Returns, confidence HIGH/MEDIUM).

Information environment / disinformation

RF Foreign Agent Registry: RF channels highlight the Ministry of Justice's expansion of the "foreign agents" list, framing it as a routine internal security measure, though it serves to suppress domestic opposition (18:35 UTC, Colonelcassad, confidence HIGH for IO effort).
RF Casualty/Success Inflation: RF milbloggers continue to claim high interception rates for UAF drones (210 UAVs, 13 "Flamingo" missiles) and promote territorial gains (Belitskoye, Zaporizhzhia advances) to project operational momentum, though independent verification remains pending (18:25-18:41 UTC, Дневник Десантника / ASTRA, confidence MEDIUM for IO effort).
Strait of Hormuz Coalition: Reports of a US-UK meeting in London to protect shipping in the Strait of Hormuz are circulating. While plausible given regional tensions, the agenda and date are not finalized, and it should not be conflated with direct Ukraine-related security guarantees (18:31 UTC, Оперативний ЗСУ, confidence MEDIUM for report).

Outlook (next 6-12h)

Aerospace Threat: Monitor for the anticipated massed RF missile and drone strike within the 48-hour window warned by Ukrainian intelligence, targeting energy and defense nodes.
Ground Operations: Track independent geospatial verification of RF claims in Belitskoye (Donetsk) and the Zaporizhzhia/Sloviansk directions to assess actual territorial changes.
Logistics: Monitor the extent of Wildberries' delivery restrictions in Crimea and their impact on local supply chains and RF logistical planning.
Diplomatic: Await further details on the proposed US-UK meeting regarding the Strait of Hormuz coalition.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

Belitskoye & Zaporizhzhia Advances: Obtain high-resolution satellite imagery to verify RF claims of territorial control in Belitskoye (Donetsk Oblast) and the reported advances near Barvynka, Dolynka, and Mykolaivka (Zaporizhzhia/Sloviansk).
NS OIL Refinery Damage: Task SATINT collection on the NS OIL facility in Novospasskoye (Ulyanovsk Oblast) to assess the extent of structural damage and the operational status of the refinery following the drone strike.
RF Aerospace Posture: Continue SIGINT and SATINT monitoring of RF strategic bomber bases and missile launch sites to identify the assembly and targeting of the threatened massed strike.
Black Sea Maritime Incident: Cross-reference the unconfirmed report of an explosion on the bulk carrier Christiana B near the Romanian coast with maritime tracking data and official Romanian/NATO reports to determine the cause and implications for maritime security.
Wildberries Crimea Restrictions: Monitor RF economic and logistical channels to determine if the delivery restrictions to Crimea are a temporary logistical failure or a systemic policy shift.