Sitrep 2026-07-24 01:26:52.614493+00

Situation Update (UTC)

Key updates since last sitrep

Wildberries logistics hub in Simferopol (Crimea) confirmed on fire with official evacuation of the sorting center, corroborating earlier UAF claims (00:58 UTC, ASTRA, confidence HIGH).
Multiple fires and explosions reported at logistics and industrial facilities in St. Petersburg, Tver, and Belgorod Oblast, with OSINT and local channels attributing them to drone strikes on Wildberries and other warehouses (01:02-01:23 UTC, ASTRA, Exilenova+, RBC-Ukraine, confidence MEDIUM).
RF forces launched KAB (guided aerial bomb) strikes on the Izium area in Kharkiv Oblast, accompanied by an air raid alert across Zaporizhzhia Oblast (01:02-01:09 UTC, Запорізька ОВА, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence HIGH).
RF state media (TASS) released psychological operation (PSYOP) videos featuring captured UAF soldiers making unsubstantiated claims about Ukrainian internal attacks and blaming Kyiv (01:05-01:13 UTC, ТАСС, confidence LOW for claims, HIGH for PSYOP activity).
Power supply restored in Abkhazia following an accident at the IngurHES hydroelectric station (01:03 UTC, ASTRA, confidence HIGH).

Operational picture (by sector)

Weather Context: Light rain and overcast conditions across the northern and eastern frontline (Kharkiv 15.9C, Luhansk 16.6C, Donetsk 16.1C), with light rain forecasted in Kharkiv and Luhansk. Partly cloudy in the south (Zaporizhzhia 17.2C), light rain in Kherson (17.4C). Precipitation and cloud cover continue to degrade optical ISR.

Kupiansk / Lyman / Kharkiv: Assessed state: RF exploiting the Vovchansk/Burluk axis; heavy positional fighting. Change: RF launched KAB strikes on the Izium area, Kharkiv Oblast (01:09 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence HIGH).
Siversk / Sloviansk / Kramatorsk: Assessed state: High-tempo RF attritional assaults. Change: No significant change.
Chasiv Yar / Kostiantynivka / Toretsk: Assessed state: Sustained RF pressure. Change: No significant change.
Pokrovsk / Dobropillia / Druzhkivka: Assessed state: RF actively concentrating assault infantry and armor. Change: No significant change.
Novopavlivka / Velyka Novosilka / Huliaipole / Orikhiv / Primorsky: Assessed state: RF conducting localized assaults and drone warfare. Change: Air raid alert declared across Zaporizhzhia Oblast, excluding Zaporizhzhia city, indicating incoming aerospace threats (01:02 UTC, Запорізька ОВА, confidence HIGH).
Sumy / Chernihiv / Northern Border areas: Assessed state: RF cross-border strikes and localized ground pressure. Change: No significant change.
Dnipropetrovsk / Central Rear: Assessed state: Persistent RF aerospace threats. Change: No significant change.
Zaporizhzhia: Assessed state: RF aerospace targeting and ground pressure. Change: See Novopavlivka/Orikhiv sector for air raid details.
Odesa / Mykolaiv / Black Sea: Assessed state: RF maritime and port interdiction. Change: No significant change.
Kherson / Southern Rear: Assessed state: Dnieper River cross-fire and persistent RF drone threats. Change: No significant change.
Crimea / Southern Rear / Land Bridge: Assessed state: UAF deep strike targeting and RF logistical vulnerability. Change: Wildberries sorting center in Simferopol confirmed on fire with official evacuation (00:58 UTC, ASTRA, confidence HIGH).
RF Interior (Belgorod / Krasnodar / Tver / Leningrad / St. Petersburg / etc.): Assessed state: UAF deep strikes on energy and logistics. Change: Fires reported at industrial and logistics facilities in St. Petersburg, Tver, and Belgorod Oblast, attributed by OSINT to drone strikes on Wildberries warehouses (01:02-01:23 UTC, ASTRA, Exilenova+, RBC-Ukraine, confidence MEDIUM). RF court seeks 24-year sentence for Varazh Manukyan, founder of the "Arbat" battalion, on terrorism/extremism charges (01:21 UTC, ТАСС, confidence HIGH).
Kursk / Bryansk / Belgorod Sectors (RF Territory): Assessed state: UAF cross-border strikes and RF defensive posturing. Change: See RF Interior for Belgorod logistics fire.
South Caucasus (Abkhazia/Georgia): Assessed state: Regional infrastructure vulnerability. Change: Power restored in Abkhazia following IngurHES accident (01:03 UTC, ASTRA, confidence HIGH).

Deep strikes & air defense

UAF Deep/Maritime Strikes:
- St. Petersburg, Tver, Belgorod Oblast: Multiple fires reported at industrial and logistics facilities, including Wildberries warehouses. Visual evidence shows large explosions, fireballs, and thick smoke plumes over urban and industrial zones. OSINT channels attribute these to drone strikes, though official confirmation of the cause is pending (01:02-01:23 UTC, ASTRA, Exilenova+, RBC-Ukraine, confidence MEDIUM).
- Simferopol (Crimea): Wildberries sorting center fire confirmed by official corporate statement noting employee evacuation (00:58 UTC, ASTRA, confidence HIGH).
RF Aerospace & Drone Campaign:
- Kharkiv Oblast: RF launched KAB (guided aerial bomb) strikes targeting the Izium area (01:09 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence HIGH).
- Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Air raid alert issued across the oblast, indicating incoming aerospace threats (01:02 UTC, Запорізька ОВА, confidence HIGH).
Air Defense Activity:
- Nothing significant to report this cycle.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

RF Ground Operations: No significant changes in ground maneuver reported this cycle.
RF Aerospace: Continued use of KABs in Kharkiv Oblast (Izium area) and aerospace threats prompting air raid alerts in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, demonstrating sustained pressure on frontline and near-frontline urban centers.
RF Information Warfare: TASS released PSYOP videos featuring captured UAF soldiers making claims of internal Ukrainian fratricide and blaming the Kyiv government. These are standard coercion-based narratives designed to degrade UAF morale (01:05-01:13 UTC, ТАСС, confidence HIGH for PSYOP activity, LOW for claim validity).
Most Likely COA: RF will continue leveraging KABs and aerospace assets to degrade frontline logistics and urban infrastructure in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. UAF will maintain its deep strike campaign targeting RF rear-area logistics (Wildberries) and energy nodes.
Most Dangerous COA: A coordinated RF aerospace strike combining tactical aviation, ballistic missiles, and UAVs could overwhelm UAF air defenses in the eastern or southern sectors, causing severe degradation of frontline defenses.

Friendly activity (UAF)

Deep Strike Campaign: UAF successfully targeted logistics infrastructure across RF interior, including confirmed strikes on Wildberries facilities in Simferopol, and reported strikes on warehouses in St. Petersburg, Tver, and Belgorod Oblast, disrupting rear-area supply chains (00:58-01:23 UTC, ASTRA, Exilenova+, RBC-Ukraine, confidence MEDIUM to HIGH).
Tactical Operations: UAF Air Force tracking and warning of RF KAB strikes in Kharkiv Oblast and aerospace threats in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (01:02-01:09 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, Запорізька ОВА, confidence HIGH).

Information environment / disinformation

UAF Fratricide Claims: TASS released a video of a captured UAF soldier claiming Ukrainian border guards attacked their own comrades during an evacuation. This is an unverified, coercion-based PSYOP narrative lacking independent corroboration, intended to sow discord (01:13 UTC, ТАСС, confidence LOW for claim, HIGH for PSYOP).
Kyiv Blame Narrative: TASS also released a video of a captured UAF soldier blaming the "Kyiv regime" for broken families. Standard psychological operation to demoralize enemy forces (01:05 UTC, ТАСС, confidence LOW for operational utility, HIGH for propaganda intent).
St. Petersburg Fire Attribution: While OSINT channels (RBC-Ukraine, Exilenova+) attribute the St. Petersburg industrial fire to a drone strike on a Wildberries warehouse, the exact cause remains unverified by official RF sources, leaving room for alternative explanations (e.g., industrial accident) until confirmed (01:06-01:23 UTC, ASTRA, RBC-Ukraine, confidence MEDIUM).

Outlook (next 6-12h)

Monitor UAF Air Force updates for actualization of the warned RF aerospace strikes in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and further KAB usage in Kharkiv Oblast.
Track satellite imagery and local RF emergency reports for damage assessment at the claimed Wildberries and industrial facilities in St. Petersburg, Tver, Belgorod, and Simferopol.
Watch for RF official statements regarding the fires in St. Petersburg and Tver to determine if they acknowledge drone strikes or attribute them to technical failures.
Monitor Abkhazia/Georgia for any secondary infrastructure failures following the IngurHES incident.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

St. Petersburg & Tver Strike BDA: Acquire satellite imagery or frontline OSINT to confirm the exact locations, targets, and extent of damage at the industrial and logistics facilities in St. Petersburg and Tver.
Belgorod Logistics Fire: Geolocate the burning facility in Belgorod Oblast and assess its strategic value to RF military logistics.
RF Aerospace Posture: Identify specific RF tactical aviation units and airfields generating the KAB and aerospace sorties targeting Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
PSYOP Verification: Cross-reference the identities of the captured UAF soldiers featured in TASS videos with official UAF POW lists to verify their status and assess the reach of the RF coercion campaign.