Sitrep 2026-07-23 05:49:43.572817+00

Situation Update (UTC)

Key updates since last sitrep

UAF struck the NS-Oil refinery in Novospasskoye (Ulyanovsk Oblast), causing a fire at the 30,000-ton/year facility, marking continued deep strikes on RF energy infrastructure (05:35 UTC, ASTRA, confidence HIGH).
UAF strikes targeted energy infrastructure in Crimea, hitting substations in Feodosia and areas near the Balaklava TPP, resulting in 1 dead, 4 injured, and localized power outages (05:20 UTC, SOTA, confidence MEDIUM).
RF forces claimed the capture of Blahodatne (Zaporizhzhia Oblast) and entering the center of Mykolaivka (Donetsk Oblast), alongside continued assaults in Sumy and Kharkiv border regions (05:08 UTC, WarGonzo, confidence LOW).
US Senator Marco Rubio met with RF Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in the Philippines; Lavrov reportedly demanded an end to Western arms supplies to Ukraine, aligning with assessed RF diplomatic initiatives to restrict UAF resupply (05:38-05:45 UTC, Оперативний ЗСУ / TASS, confidence HIGH).
RF drones struck two gas stations in Sumy city; Presidential Advisor Flesch warned of a new RF tactic controlling "Molniya" drones via "Shahed/Herbera" systems to bypass technical limitations (05:11 UTC, РБК-Україна, confidence MEDIUM).
ISW assesses the Kremlin is preparing for a new mobilization wave, noting the State Duma is allowing the conscription of individuals with unexpunged criminal convictions to sustain force generation (05:11 UTC, РБК-Україна / ISW, confidence MEDIUM).

Operational picture (by sector)

Current weather (05:45 UTC): Kharkiv/Vovchansk 18.5C overcast; Luhansk/Svatove 20.7C overcast; Donetsk/Pokrovsk 19.3C light rain; Zaporizhzhia/Orikhiv 21.6C overcast; Kherson 18.7C light rain. Forecast indicates light rain across Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson sectors.

Kupiansk / Lyman / Kharkiv: Assessed state: RF exploiting the Vovchansk/Burluk axis to stretch UAF defenses. Change: RF claims attacks from Volokhivske towards Baksheevka and fighting near Bilyi Kolodiaz. Kupiansk sector remains static. RF claims advances along the Chereshchyna-Druzhelyubovka line, south of Dibrova, and west of Ozerne (Lyman/Krasno-Lyman direction) (05:08 UTC, WarGonzo, confidence LOW).
Siversk / Sloviansk / Kramatorsk: Assessed state: High-tempo RF attritional assaults. Change: No significant change reported this cycle beyond ongoing RF claims of localized advances in the Krasno-Lyman direction.
Chasiv Yar / Kostiantynivka / Toretsk: Assessed state: Sustained RF pressure. Change: RF claims to have entered the center of Mykolaivka (south of Chasiv Yar). Fighting continues in Chasiv Yar (05:08 UTC, WarGonzo, confidence LOW).
Pokrovsk / Dobropillia: Assessed state: RF actively concentrating assault infantry and armor. Change: RF claims fighting near Belitske, Shevchenko, and advances near Hulevo (Dobropillia direction) (05:08 UTC, WarGonzo, confidence LOW).
Novopavlivka / Velyka Novosilka / Huliaipole / Orikhiv: Assessed state: RF conducting localized assaults and drone warfare. Change: RF claims capture of Blahodatne (Huliaipole direction) and fighting near Piddubne. RF 60th GMRB (Vostok group) conducted FPV strikes on UAF assault groups in Zaporizhzhia (05:08 UTC, WarGonzo; 05:30 UTC, Voin DV, confidence LOW/MEDIUM).
Sumy / Chernihiv / Northern Border areas: Assessed state: RF cross-border strikes and localized ground pressure. Change: RF claims fighting in Ryzhivka, Pysarivka, Morytsia, Nova Sich, Khoten, Ulanovo, and Mala Slobodka. RF drones struck two gas stations in Sumy city. UAF Air Force tracking KABs and UAVs towards Sumy (05:08 UTC, WarGonzo; 05:11 UTC, РБК-Україна; 05:34-05:43 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗСУ, confidence MEDIUM).
Dnipropetrovsk / Central Rear: Assessed state: Persistent RF aerospace threats. Change: UAF Air Force tracking UAVs towards Kremenchuk and Putyvl (05:23-05:25 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗСУ, confidence HIGH).
Zaporizhzhia: Assessed state: RF aerospace targeting and ground pressure. Change: No significant change in frontline disposition beyond unverified RF claims of capturing Blahodatne.
Odesa / Mykolaiv / Black Sea: Assessed state: RF maritime and port interdiction. Change: No significant change reported this cycle.
Kherson / Southern Rear: Assessed state: Dnieper River cross-fire and persistent RF drone threats. Change: No significant change reported this cycle.
Crimea / Southern Rear: Assessed state: UAF deep strike targeting. Change: UAF struck substations in Feodosia and areas near the Balaklava TPP; power outage reported in Alushta. 1 dead, 4 injured (05:20 UTC, SOTA, confidence MEDIUM).
RF Interior (Ulyanovsk / Voronezh / Bashkortostan / Tula / Belgorod): Assessed state: UAF deep strikes, RF info control. Change: Confirmed UAF strike on NS-Oil refinery in Novospasskoye (Ulyanovsk Oblast). Drones targeted a Wildberries warehouse in Voronezh (4th attack in a week). Smoke continues from Subhankulovo (Bashkortostan) (05:11 UTC, РБК-Україна; 05:29 UTC, Exilenova+; 05:35 UTC, ASTRA, confidence HIGH).
Kursk / Bryansk Sectors (RF Territory): Assessed state: UAF cross-border strikes. Change: No significant change reported this cycle.

Deep strikes & air defense

UAF Deep/Maritime Strikes:
- Confirmed UAF strike on the NS-Oil refinery in Novospasskoye (Ulyanovsk Oblast), causing a fire at the 30,000-ton/year facility (05:35 UTC, ASTRA, confidence HIGH).
- UAF struck energy infrastructure in Crimea, including substations in Feodosia and near the Balaklava TPP, causing power outages in Alushta and 1 death, 4 injuries (05:20 UTC, SOTA, confidence MEDIUM).
- Drones targeted a Wildberries warehouse in Voronezh, marking the fourth such attack in a week (05:11 UTC, РБК-Україна, confidence MEDIUM).
RF Aerospace & Drone Campaign:
- RF drones struck two gas stations in Sumy city (Kovpakivskyi and Zariachnyi districts), causing fires (05:11 UTC, РБК-Україна, confidence HIGH).
- UAF Air Force tracking multiple UAV and KAB threats towards Sumy, Kremenchuk, and Putyvl (05:23-05:43 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗСУ, confidence HIGH).
- RF PMC "Rubicon" claims to have intercepted multiple UAF long-range drones (FP-2, Anubis, Rubaka, Zozulya, R-15) targeting deep RF territory, showcasing various EW and air defense systems (05:39 UTC, Центр «РУБИКОН», confidence LOW - unverified propaganda).

Enemy activity / threat assessment

RF Ground Operations: RF continues multi-axis attritional assaults. Unverified claims of capturing Blahodatne (Zaporizhzhia) and entering Mykolaivka (Donetsk). Intense fighting reported in Sumy and Kharkiv border regions to stretch UAF defenses.
RF Aerospace & Drone Tactics: RF is employing a mixed munition strategy, including a newly reported tactic of controlling "Molniya" drones via "Shahed/Herbera" systems to bypass technical limitations (05:11 UTC, РБК-Україна, confidence MEDIUM). High volume of FPV and Lancet drones used in Kharkiv Oblast.
RF Mobilization & Internal Posture: ISW assesses the Kremlin is preparing for a new mobilization wave, evidenced by State Duma legislation allowing the conscription of individuals with unexpunged criminal convictions and expanded Rosgvardia civil defense powers (05:11 UTC, РБК-Україна / ISW, confidence MEDIUM).
Most Likely COA: RF will maintain intense aerospace pressure and attritional ground assaults in the east while continuing localized cross-border incursions in Sumy/Kharkiv. Mobilization preparations will continue quietly to sustain force generation.
Most Dangerous COA: Successful integration of new drone control tactics (Molniya/Shahed) overwhelms UAF air defenses, combined with a major RF breakthrough in the Sumy/Kharkiv or Zaporizhzhia sectors.

Friendly activity (UAF)

Air Defense & EW: UAF Air Defense actively tracking and intercepting incoming RF UAVs and KABs targeting Sumy, Kremenchuk, and Putyvl.
Deep Strikes: UAF successfully struck the NS-Oil refinery in Ulyanovsk Oblast and energy infrastructure in Crimea. Continued targeting of RF logistics (Wildberries in Voronezh).
Ground Operations: UAF defending against intense RF assaults across all active fronts, particularly in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk sectors.

Information environment / disinformation

Diplomatic Narratives: RF state media (TASS) is highlighting the Rubio-Lavrov meeting to project diplomatic relevance and push the narrative that Western arms supplies are the primary obstacle to peace, aligning with assessed RF diplomatic initiatives to restrict UAF resupply.
RF PMC Propaganda: The "Rubicon" PMC is running a heavy recruitment and propaganda campaign, posting highly produced videos claiming extensive drone intercepts and showcasing EW equipment. These claims lack independent verification and are designed for morale and recruitment (Центр «РУБИКОН», multiple timestamps, confidence LOW).
Climate/Weather Narratives: RF state media (TASS) is highlighting anomalous heatwaves in Europe, noting they may eventually reach Russia, likely to contextualize environmental shifts or distract from domestic issues (05:42 UTC, TASS, confidence HIGH).
Historical Propaganda: RF milbloggers (e.g., Basurin) are posting historical commemorations (e.g., Vladimir Klimov) to evoke Soviet-era technological pride and nationalistic sentiment.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

Monitor the aftermath of the UAF strike on the NS-Oil refinery in Ulyanovsk Oblast for secondary explosions and environmental impact.
Track the implementation of the reported new RF drone control tactic (Molniya via Shahed) and its effectiveness against UAF air defenses.
Observe RF ground operations in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia to verify claims of territorial gains (Blahodatne, Mykolaivka).
Watch for official US and RF statements regarding the Rubio-Lavrov meeting in the Philippines to gauge any shifts in diplomatic posture.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

Novospasskoye (Ulyanovsk) Damage Assessment: Obtain satellite or thermal imagery to assess the extent of damage to the NS-Oil refinery and confirm operational disruption.
Mykolaivka & Blahodatne Verification: Collect high-fidelity geospatial imagery to verify RF claims of entering the center of Mykolaivka (Donetsk) and capturing Blahodatne (Zaporizhzhia).
Molniya/Shahed Integration: Monitor SIGINT and electronic warfare reports to verify the technical integration of "Molniya" drones controlled via "Shahed" systems and assess the threat level.
Rubio-Lavrov Meeting Outcomes: Gather official readouts from the US State Department and RF MFA regarding the substance of the 30-minute meeting in the Philippines.
RF Mobilization Legislation: Track the progress of the State Duma bill allowing conscription of individuals with unexpunged convictions to assess its impact on RF force generation.