Sitrep 2026-07-23 03:40:55.906699+00

Situation Update (UTC)

Key updates since last sitrep

RF directed KABs (guided aerial bombs) towards eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and Zaporizhzhia Oblast (03:21-03:22 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence HIGH).
RF UAVs tracked towards Ichnia in Chernihiv Oblast, and near Hlukhiv and Shalyhyne in Sumy Oblast (03:21 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence HIGH).
RF reactive UAV tracked along the Buh Estuary towards Mykolaiv city in Mykolaiv Oblast (03:37 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence HIGH).
UNCONFIRMED reports indicate UAF UAVs struck an energy facility in Ulyanovsk Oblast, RF (03:17 UTC, ТАСС, confidence LOW).
UNCONFIRMED RF MoD claims state 28 vessels carrying military cargo and fuel were struck in Ukrainian ports and the Black Sea since 11 July (03:23 UTC, ТАСС, confidence LOW).

Operational picture (by sector)

Current weather (03:30 UTC): Kharkiv/Vovchansk 14.9C overcast; Luhansk/Svatove 16.7C overcast; Donetsk/Pokrovsk 18.4C overcast; Zaporizhzhia/Orikhiv 19.0C overcast; Kherson 18.1C light rain. Daily forecast indicates light rain expected across Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson sectors.

Kupiansk / Lyman / Kharkiv: Assessed state: RF exploiting the Vovchansk/Burluk axis to stretch UAF defenses. Change: No significant change.
Siversk / Sloviansk / Kramatorsk: Assessed state: High-tempo RF attritional assaults. Change: No significant change.
Chasiv Yar / Kostiantynivka / Toretsk: Assessed state: Sustained RF pressure. Change: No significant change.
Pokrovsk / Dobropillia: Assessed state: RF actively concentrating assault infantry and armor for a push towards Dobropillia. Change: No significant change.
Novopavlivka / Velyka Novosilka / Huliaipole / Orikhiv: Assessed state: RF conducting localized assaults and drone warfare. Change: No significant change.
Sumy / Chernihiv / Northern Border areas: Assessed state: RF cross-border strikes and localized ground pressure. Change: RF UAVs tracked towards Ichnia in Chernihiv Oblast, and near Hlukhiv and Shalyhyne in Sumy Oblast.
Dnipropetrovsk / Central Rear: Assessed state: Persistent RF aerospace threats. Change: RF KABs directed towards eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Zaporizhzhia: Assessed state: RF aerospace targeting and ground pressure. Change: RF KABs directed towards Zaporizhzhia Oblast; air raid alert declared in Zaporizhzhia city.
Odesa / Mykolaiv / Black Sea: Assessed state: RF maritime and port interdiction. Change: RF reactive UAV tracked along the Buh Estuary towards Mykolaiv city; UNCONFIRMED RF MoD claims of striking 28 vessels in Ukrainian ports and the sea since 11 July.
Kherson / Southern Rear: Assessed state: Dnieper River cross-fire and persistent RF drone threats. Change: No significant change.
Crimea / Southern Rear: Assessed state: UAF deep strike targeting. Change: No significant change.
RF Interior (Ulyanovsk / St. Petersburg / Moscow / YNAO): Assessed state: UAF deep strikes, RF info control. Change: UNCONFIRMED reports of a UAV strike on an energy facility in Ulyanovsk Oblast.
Kursk Sector (RF Territory): Assessed state: UAF defensive operations and localized counter-attacks. Change: No significant change.
Occupied Luhansk: Assessed state: UAF deep strike targeting. Change: No significant change.

Deep strikes & air defense

UAF Deep/Maritime Strikes:
- UNCONFIRMED reports indicate UAF UAVs struck an energy facility in Ulyanovsk Oblast, RF, with special services responding on site (03:17 UTC, ТАСС, confidence LOW).
RF Aerospace & Drone Campaign:
- RF directed KABs towards eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and Zaporizhzhia Oblast (03:21-03:22 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence HIGH).
- RF UAVs tracked towards Ichnia (Chernihiv Oblast), and near Hlukhiv and Shalyhyne (Sumy Oblast) (03:21 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence HIGH).
- RF reactive UAV tracked along the Buh Estuary towards Mykolaiv city (03:37 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence HIGH).
- UNCONFIRMED RF MoD claims state 28 vessels in Ukrainian ports and the Black Sea were struck since 11 July (03:23 UTC, ТАСС, confidence LOW).

Enemy activity / threat assessment

RF Aerospace Targeting: RF continues to utilize KABs for deep strikes, expanding the current cycle's targets to include Zaporizhzhia Oblast in addition to eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. An air raid alert was declared in Zaporizhzhia city in response.
RF UAV Threats: RF is employing UAVs to threaten northern urban centers (Ichnia, Hlukhiv) and southern maritime/industrial hubs (Mykolaiv via the Buh Estuary).
Most Likely COA: RF will continue KAB strikes against Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, while utilizing reactive UAVs to interdict maritime and industrial targets in Mykolaiv and maintain harassment of northern border oblasts.
Most Dangerous COA: A successful strike on critical energy infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia or Dnipropetrovsk by KABs, or a successful maritime interdiction strike by reactive UAVs in the Buh Estuary, causing severe logistical or civilian infrastructure degradation.

Friendly activity (UAF)

Air Defense & EW: UAF Air Force actively tracking multiple RF UAV and KAB threats towards Chernihiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Mykolaiv oblasts (03:21-03:37 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence HIGH).
Deep Strikes: UAF reportedly struck an energy facility in Ulyanovsk Oblast, continuing the campaign against RF rear-area logistics and energy nodes (03:17 UTC, ТАСС, confidence LOW).

Information environment / disinformation

RF Maritime Claims: ТАСС reported UNCONFIRMED RF MoD claims of striking 28 vessels since 11 July. This aligns with the broader RF narrative of successfully interdicting Ukrainian maritime logistics following the Maersk suspension, but lacks independent verification (03:23 UTC, ТАСС, confidence LOW).
VDV Propaganda: Russian VDV-affiliated channels ("Дневник Десантника") are running engagement quizzes featuring military patches and historical monuments to boost morale and foster community among followers, normalizing military symbols in civilian spaces (03:31 UTC, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, confidence HIGH).
US Auto Legislation: Reports on US Senate hearings regarding restrictions on vehicles with Chinese passive investments (impacting Mercedes and Volvo) are circulating. While not directly related to the kinetic war, it reflects broader economic and supply chain vulnerabilities being monitored in the information space (03:11 UTC, РБК-Україна, confidence MEDIUM).

Outlook (next 6-12h)

Monitor for visual confirmation of KAB impacts in Zaporizhzhia and eastern Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, and assess damage to critical infrastructure.
Track the progression and interception of RF UAVs targeting Mykolaiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy oblasts.
Seek independent geospatial verification of the reported UAF strike on the energy facility in Ulyanovsk Oblast.
Monitor RF maritime strike claims for independent AIS or visual corroboration regarding the 28 vessels.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

Zaporizhzhia & Dnipropetrovsk KAB Impacts: Geolocate and assess damage from the reported RF KAB strikes in Zaporizhzhia and eastern Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, specifically looking for hits on critical infrastructure.
Ulyanovsk Energy Facility: Collect high-fidelity visual evidence or local reporting to verify the extent of damage to the energy facility in Ulyanovsk Oblast following the reported UAV strike.
RF Maritime Strike Claims: Verify the RF MoD claim of striking 28 vessels since 11 July through AIS tracking, port authority reports, or independent OSINT.
Mykolaiv UAV Trajectory: Track the final impact or interception point of the RF reactive UAV moving along the Buh Estuary towards Mykolaiv to assess current air defense coverage in the area.