Sitrep 2026-07-23 01:09:59.449154+00

Situation Update (UTC)

Key updates since last sitrep

RF launched a second wave of Kh-59 cruise missiles and KABs from the Black Sea targeting Odesa; local sources claim at least 2 missiles were successfully intercepted (00:38-00:43 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України & Николаевский Ванёк, confidence MEDIUM).
RF launched a new salvo of KABs targeting Donetsk Oblast (00:46 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, confidence HIGH).
Multiple RF UAVs were tracked towards Lozova and Bohodukhiv in Kharkiv Oblast, over the NE outskirts of Kherson, and towards Sanzhivka/Chornomorsk in Odesa Oblast (00:46-01:04 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, confidence HIGH).
A large fire continues at a Wildberries distribution center in Nevinnomyssk, Stavropol Krai (RF), following earlier UAF deep strikes (00:56 UTC, Exilenova+, confidence MEDIUM).
RF IO released a video of a captured UAF 103rd Territorial Defense Brigade member, allegedly deported from Czechia, to highlight mobilization abuses and discredit Ukrainian authorities (01:03 UTC, Colonelcassad, confidence MEDIUM for IO intent).

Operational picture (by sector)

Current weather (01:00 UTC): Kharkiv 13.8C overcast; Luhansk 16.2C overcast; Donetsk 17.8C overcast; Zaporizhzhia 19.6C overcast; Kherson 18.8C light rain.

Kupiansk / Lyman / Kharkiv: Assessed state: RF exploiting the Vovchansk/Burluk axis to stretch UAF defenses. Change: UAVs tracked past Sakhnovshcha towards Lozova, and reactive UAVs tracked past Bohodukhiv heading south/southeast.
Siversk / Sloviansk / Kramatorsk: Assessed state: High-tempo RF attritional assaults. Change: No significant change.
Chasiv Yar / Kostiantynivka / Toretsk: Assessed state: Sustained RF pressure. Change: No significant change.
Pokrovsk / Dobropillia: Assessed state: RF actively concentrating assault infantry and armor for a push towards Dobropillia. Change: No significant change.
Novopavlivka / Velyka Novosilka / Huliaipole / Orikhiv: Assessed state: RF conducting localized assaults and drone warfare. Change: No significant change.
Sumy / Kharkiv / Border areas: Assessed state: RF cross-border strikes and localized ground pressure. Change: UAVs tracked towards Lozova and Bohodukhiv in Kharkiv Oblast.
Dnipropetrovsk / Central Rear: Assessed state: Persistent RF aerospace threats. Change: No significant change.
RF Rear (Krasnodar / Bryansk / Stavropol / Belgorod / Tambov / Voronezh / Moscow): Assessed state: UAF deep strike campaign, RF counter-terrorism. Change: Wildberries distribution center in Nevinnomyssk continues to burn overnight.
Kherson / Southern Rear: Assessed state: Dnieper River cross-fire and persistent RF drone threats. Change: UAVs tracked over NE outskirts of Kherson city heading west.
Odesa / Mykolaiv / Black Sea: Assessed state: RF maritime and port interdiction. Change: Second wave of Kh-59 cruise missiles and KABs launched from the Black Sea towards Odesa; UAV tracked towards Sanzhivka/Chornomorsk.
Crimea / Southern Rear: Assessed state: UAF deep strike targeting. Change: No significant change.
RF Interior (St. Petersburg / Moscow / YNAO): Assessed state: UAF deep strikes, RF info control. Change: No significant change.
Chernihiv / Northern Rear: Assessed state: RF aerospace targeting. Change: No significant change.
Zaporizhzhia: Assessed state: RF aerospace targeting and ground pressure. Change: No significant change.
Kursk Sector (RF Territory): Assessed state: UAF defensive operations and localized counter-attacks. Change: No significant change.
Occupied Luhansk: Assessed state: UAF deep strike targeting. Change: No significant change.

Deep strikes & air defense

UAF Deep/Maritime Strikes:
- Wildberries distribution center in Nevinnomyssk, Stavropol Krai, continues to burn overnight following earlier strikes (00:56 UTC, Exilenova+, confidence MEDIUM).
RF Aerospace & Drone Campaign:
- RF launched a second wave of Kh-59 cruise missiles and KABs from the Black Sea towards Odesa (00:38-00:39 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України & Николаевский Ванёк, confidence HIGH).
- Local sources claim successful interception of at least 2 Kh-59 missiles targeting Odesa (00:43 UTC, Николаевский Ванёк, confidence MEDIUM).
- RF launched a new salvo of KABs targeting Donetsk Oblast (00:46 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, confidence HIGH).
- UAVs tracked towards Lozova and Bohodukhiv (Kharkiv Oblast), NE Kherson, and Sanzhivka/Chornomorsk (Odesa Oblast) (00:46-01:04 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, confidence HIGH).

Enemy activity / threat assessment

RF Aerospace Posture: RF is executing a sustained, multi-wave aerospace campaign. The deployment of a second wave of Kh-59s and KABs against Odesa indicates a deliberate effort to overwhelm air defenses and maximize port infrastructure degradation, compounding the operational impact of the recent Maersk suspension.
Most Likely COA: RF will continue multi-wave stand-off strikes against southern ports and eastern industrial nodes, utilizing UAVs for deep rear surveillance and precision strikes to stretch UAF air defense assets.
Most Dangerous COA: Successful saturation of Odesa air defenses by the second wave of Kh-59s/KABs, causing critical damage to remaining maritime logistics nodes and forcing a complete halt to Black Sea commercial routing.

Friendly activity (UAF)

Air Defense: UAF Air Force is actively tracking and engaging the second wave of Kh-59s and KABs. Local sources report successful interception of at least 2 Kh-59 missiles targeting Odesa (00:43 UTC, Николаевский Ванёк, confidence MEDIUM).

Information environment / disinformation

RF IO - POW Exploitation: Video released of a captured UAF 103rd Territorial Defense Brigade member (identified as V.I. Tabunshchikov). The narrative focuses on his alleged deportation from Czechia, beating by TCC staff, and capture in a rear area to discredit Ukrainian mobilization processes and amplify domestic dissent (01:03 UTC, Colonelcassad, confidence MEDIUM for IO intent).
Clickbait/Unverified: Article claiming the US (Trump administration) may clash with Russian mercenaries (Wagner/Africa Corps) in Mali. Assessed as LOW reliability; relies on unverified political predictions and generic imagery to sensationalize regional tensions without evidentiary backing (00:51 UTC, РБК-Україна, confidence LOW for factual accuracy).

Outlook (next 6-12h)

Monitor damage assessment in Odesa following the second wave of Kh-59 and KAB strikes to evaluate the resilience of remaining port infrastructure.
Track the operational impact of the ongoing Wildberries fire in Nevinnomyssk on RF rear-area logistics and e-commerce supply chains.
Await visual confirmation and BDA for UAV strike locations in Kharkiv (Lozova/Bohodukhiv) and Odesa (Sanzhivka/Chornomorsk).

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

Odesa Strike Impact: Obtain visual confirmation and damage assessment for the second wave of Kh-59 and KAB strikes targeting Odesa port and city infrastructure.
UAV Targets: Identify the specific targets and impact of the UAVs tracked towards Lozova, Bohodukhiv, and Sanzhivka/Chornomorsk.
Nevinnomyssk Fire: Verify the extent of the damage to the Wildberries distribution center via satellite imagery or independent regional sources to confirm logistical disruption.
POW Verification: Cross-reference the identity of the captured UAF soldier (Tabunshchikov, 103rd Brigade) with official missing persons lists to verify the circumstances of his capture and deportation.