Sitrep 2026-07-18 05:53:55.770429+00

Situation Update (UTC)

Key updates since last sitrep

UAF drone strikes hit Wildberries logistics centers in Kotovsk (Tambov Oblast) and Elektrostal (Moscow Oblast), with RF authorities reporting 7 killed and 25 injured in Kotovsk, and 24 injured in Elektrostal (05:39:24Z, ASTRA; 05:43:01Z, Colonelcassad, confidence HIGH for strikes, MEDIUM for exact casualty counts).
A drone strike caused a fire at an oil depot in Noginsk (Moscow Oblast), prompting the evacuation of a nearby maternity hospital and an apartment building, with 2 reported injuries (05:22:54Z, ASTRA, confidence HIGH).
UAF Special Operations Forces (SBS) claim strikes on 13 RF "shadow fleet" vessels in the Black and Azov Seas (8 dry cargo, 1 tanker, 1 gas tanker, 1 tug, 2 floating cranes) as part of Operation "Molochka" (05:46:06Z, Exilenova+; 05:49:48Z, РБК-Україна, confidence MEDIUM).
RF forces conducted intense airstrikes on Kharkiv Oblast using 2 missiles, 7 KABs, and multiple drone types, killing 2 civilians and injuring 18 (including 5 children) across Kharkiv city and 29 settlements (05:43:47Z, Олег Синєгубов, confidence HIGH).
Finland restricted flights over the eastern Gulf of Finland, and Leningrad Oblast re-declared a UAV danger mode following overnight aerial activity (05:42:55Z, ТАСС, confidence HIGH).
RF MoD claims to have shot down 379 UAF drones overnight, a figure assessed as highly exaggerated for propaganda purposes (05:23:03Z, Треш Ульяновск 😱, confidence LOW).

Operational picture (by sector)

Kupiansk: No significant change. Weather: 18.2C, clear, wind 2.0 m/s.
Lyman / Siversk / Sloviansk: RF "BARS" group reported active in the Siversk direction. UAF repelled RF assaults in the Lyman direction. Weather: 18.7C, mainly clear, wind 2.2 m/s.
Chasiv Yar / Kostiantynivka / Toretsk: No significant change. Weather: 18.1C, mainly clear, wind 2.3 m/s.
Pokrovsk / Dobropillya: No significant change. Weather: 18.1C, mainly clear, wind 2.3 m/s.
Novopavlivka / Huliaipole / Orikhiv (Zaporizhzhia): RF 57th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (5th Army, Vostok group) drone operators reported active. RF "Rubicon" center claims mining of UAF logistics routes. Weather: 19.0C, clear, wind 1.9 m/s.
Sumy / Kharkiv / Border areas: UAF repelled 17 RF assaults in the South-Slobozhansky direction (Vilcha, Kozacha Lopan, Lyman, Izbytske, Synelnykove). RF struck Kharkiv city and 29 settlements with missiles, KABs, and drones, causing 2 civilian deaths and 18 injuries. Weather: 18.2C, clear, wind 2.0 m/s.
Zaporizhzhia / Kherson: No significant change. Weather: 21.6C, mainly clear, wind 3.1 m/s.
Mykolaiv / Odesa (Southern Maritime): RF MoD claims strikes on Odesa port infrastructure (fuel/lubricants) and two ships near Chornomorsk. UAF SBS claims strikes on 13 RF shadow fleet vessels in the Black and Azov Seas. Weather: 21.6C, mainly clear, wind 3.1 m/s.
Dnipropetrovsk / Zhytomyr (Rear): No significant change.
Kursk Direction: No significant change.
Crimea / Southern Rear: No significant change.
RF Rear / Occupied Areas: No significant change.

Deep strikes & air defense

UAF Deep Strikes: Wildberries logistics centers in Kotovsk (Tambov Oblast) and Elektrostal (Moscow Oblast) struck. Kotovsk: 7 killed, 25 injured (ASTRA, Colonelcassad). Elektrostal: 24 injured (ASTRA). Noginsk (Moscow Oblast) oil depot struck, causing a fire and evacuation of a maternity hospital; 2 injured (ASTRA). RF claims UAF drones in Tambov were equipped with fragmentation elements (ТАСС). Smoke from Kotovsk fire reportedly reached Moscow (ЦАПЛІЄНКО).
UAF Maritime Strikes: UAF SBS claims destruction/damage to 13 RF shadow fleet vessels (8 dry cargo, 1 tanker, 1 gas tanker, 1 tug, 2 floating cranes) in the Black and Azov Seas. Operation "Molochka" total: 172 ships attacked over 13 days (РБК-Україна, Exilenova+).
RF Aerospace Campaign: RF struck Kharkiv Oblast with 2 missiles, 7 KABs, 3 Geran-2, 6 Molniya, 9 FPV, and 33 unidentified UAVs. RF MoD claims strikes on Odesa port fuel infrastructure and two ships near Chornomorsk (Олег Синєгубов, Два майора).
Air Defense / Threats: UAF Air Force tracked UAVs moving towards northern Chernihiv Oblast in a south-eastern direction (Повітряні Сили ЗСУ). RF claims 379 UAF drones shot down overnight (Треш Ульяновск 😱), and 48 in Moscow Oblast (ASTRA). Finland restricted flights over the eastern Gulf of Finland; Leningrad Oblast re-declared UAV danger mode (ТАСС).

Enemy activity / threat assessment

RF Ground Offensive Posture: RF maintains steady assault tempo, with 17 attacks repelled in the South-Slobozhansky direction and 1 in Kupiansk over the past 24 hours. RF "BARS" and "Rubicon" units are actively employing drones and mining logistics routes in the Zaporizhzhia and Siversk directions.
RF Aerospace & Maritime Strategy: RF continues intensive KAB, missile, and drone campaigns against Kharkiv and Odesa, targeting both civilian infrastructure and port/logistics facilities. RF maritime forces are attempting to counter UAF drone campaigns in the Black Sea, though UAF claims significant attrition of the RF shadow fleet.
RF Rear Vulnerability: UAF deep strikes continue to successfully penetrate RF air defenses, targeting critical commercial logistics (Wildberries) and energy infrastructure (Noginsk oil depot) in Moscow and Tambov Oblasts, causing civilian casualties and disrupting supply chains.

Friendly activity (UAF)

Ground Operations: UAF successfully repelled 17 RF assaults in the South-Slobozhansky direction and 1 in Kupiansk. UAF FPV drone operators reportedly struck and destroyed/damaged an RF attack aircraft in Donetsk Oblast (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС).
Maritime Operations: UAF SBS executed a major strike package against the RF shadow fleet, claiming 13 vessels hit in a single day, severely disrupting RF maritime logistics in the Azov and Black Seas.
Deep Strikes: UAF successfully executed a coordinated drone campaign against deep-rear logistics and energy infrastructure in Moscow and Tambov Oblasts, inflicting casualties and structural damage.
Air Defense: UAF Air Force actively tracking incoming aerial threats, including a UAV track towards northern Chernihiv Oblast.

Information environment / disinformation

RF "Terrorism" Narrative: RF authorities, including Tambov Governor Pervyshov, are framing UAF strikes on Wildberries warehouses as "planned terrorist acts against civilians," claiming drones were equipped with fragmentation elements to maximize casualties (ТАСС, Colonelcassad).
Exaggerated Air Defense Claims: RF sources claim 379 UAF drones were shot down overnight, a figure assessed as highly inflated for domestic morale (Треш Ульяновск 😱).
UAF Psychological Operations: Ukrainian channels are mocking RF reactions, posting images of missile debris with "Vlad Boris Missed" and stating "Pandora's box is opened" regarding strikes on RF logistics hubs (Exilenova+).
RF SBU Attribution: RF state media (ТАСС) cites a former SBU officer claiming Acting Head of SBU Poklad is behind "terrorism and murders" in Russia.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

Monitor BDA for Wildberries facilities in Kotovsk and Elektrostal, and the Noginsk oil depot, to assess long-term logistics and fuel disruption in the RF rear.
Expect continued RF aerial and drone strikes against Kharkiv, Odesa, and other frontline/rear areas, given current threat tracks and favorable weather conditions.
Track RF maritime logistics and shadow fleet movements in the Kerch Strait and Novorossiysk approaches following UAF claims of significant vessel attrition.
Monitor airspace restrictions in the Baltic/Gulf of Finland region for potential impacts on RF aviation or drone routing.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

Wildberries & Noginsk BDA: Obtain satellite imagery for Kotovsk, Elektrostal, and Noginsk facilities to assess structural damage, fire extent, and operational downtime.
Maritime Shadow Fleet Attrition: Verify UAF SBS claims regarding the 13 struck vessels via AIS data, satellite imagery, and port arrival/departure logs in the Azov and Black Seas.
RF Aircraft Loss: Geolocate and verify the UAF claim of an RF attack aircraft being struck by an FPV drone in Donetsk Oblast.
Casualty Verification: Independently verify the exact casualty counts (7 killed, 25 injured) at the Kotovsk Wildberries facility, as RF sources may inflate or alter numbers for propaganda.