Sitrep 2026-07-18 04:04:34.197103+00

Situation Update (UTC)

Key updates since last sitrep

In Elektrostal (Moscow Oblast), visual evidence and OSINT confirm massive fires at the Wildberries logistics center, identified as the second-largest facility of its kind in RF, following the UAF night drone swarm (03:34:50Z, Exilenova+; 03:53:40Z, ASTRA, confidence HIGH).
In Kotovsk (Tambov Oblast), the RF Governor officially confirmed 7 killed and 24 injured among night shift workers following the UAF drone strike on the Wildberries sorting center, noting that open burning has been extinguished (03:41:32Z, ASTRA, confidence HIGH).
The Wildberries corporate entity officially confirmed that its logistics complexes in both Kotovsk (Tambov Oblast) and Elektrostal (Moscow Oblast) were attacked (03:53:51Z, ТАСС, confidence HIGH).
In the Zaporizhzhia direction, RF milbloggers report that the "Vostok" grouping captured outposts west of Novoselivka and is attempting to advance towards Orikhiv via Kosivtseve and Verkhnia Tersa to cut the Orikhiv-Novomykolaivka highway (03:35:07Z, Colonelcassad, confidence MEDIUM).
In the Sumy direction, RF "Sever" grouping is engaged in street-level fighting in Ulanovo and Malaya Slobodka, and reportedly repelled a counterattack by the UAF 158th Separate Assault Brigade (03:57:46Z, Два майора, confidence MEDIUM).
RF sources updated the drone attack toll on the Moscow region, claiming 64 UAVs destroyed on approach to the capital and 6 UAVs shot down over Leningrad Oblast (an increase from the previously reported 5) (03:57:46Z, Два майора, confidence MEDIUM).

Operational picture (by sector)

Kupiansk: No significant change. Fighting continues in and near Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi. Weather: 14.2C, clear, wind 0.7 m/s.
Lyman / Siversk / Sloviansk: RF forces are conducting attacks on a wide front to approach Sloviansk, facing prepared defenses. Weather: 15.1C (Luhansk) / 14.7C (Donetsk), clear/partly cloudy, wind 0.7 m/s.
Chasiv Yar / Kostiantynivka / Toretsk: No significant change. Weather: 14.7C, clear, wind 0.7 m/s.
Pokrovsk / Dobropillya: RF "Center" grouping continues assaults near Pokrovsk, specifically in Hryshyne, Novooleksandrivka, Rodynske, and Dorozhne, supported by tactical UAVs. Weather: 14.7C, clear, wind 0.7 m/s.
Novopavlivka / Huliaipole / Orikhiv (Zaporizhzhia): RF "Vostok" grouping captured outposts west of Novoselivka and is pushing towards Orikhiv via Kosivtseve, Verkhnia Tersa, and Tsvetkove, aiming to cut the Orikhiv-Novomykolaivka highway. RF "Dnepr" grouping is fighting near Stepnohirsk against UAF reinforcements. Weather: 14.1C, clear, wind 0.5 m/s.
Sumy / Kharkiv / Border areas: RF "Sever" grouping is engaged in street fighting in Ulanovo and Malaya Slobodka (Sumy Oblast) and attacking in Kazacha Lopan, Vovchansk sector (Volokhove, Zakharivka, Yurchenkove), and Velykyi Burluk sector. Weather: 14.2C, clear, wind 0.7 m/s.
Zaporizhzhia / Kherson: RF UAV strike hit an apartment building in Vasilivka (Zaporizhzhia Oblast), hospitalizing two women. In Kherson Oblast, RF UAV attacks over the previous 24h killed 3 and wounded 7 civilians. Weather: 18.8C, partly cloudy, wind 2.4 m/s.
Mykolaiv / Odesa (Southern Maritime): RF MoD claims continued strikes on port infrastructure and commercial shipping in Odesa Oblast. Weather: 18.8C, partly cloudy, wind 2.4 m/s.
Dnipropetrovsk / Zhytomyr (Rear): RF "Center" grouping UAVs reportedly striking targets in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Kursk Direction: No significant change.
Crimea / Southern Rear: RF sources report UAF used reactive drones overnight; 2 killed and 1 wounded in the northern part of the peninsula during the day.
RF Rear / Occupied Areas: Massive UAF drone swarm targeted Moscow, Tambov, and Leningrad oblasts. Wildberries facilities in Elektrostal and Kotovsk confirmed hit and burning. Belgorod Oblast experienced FPV drone attacks in Nikolskoye and Shebekino, causing civilian casualties.

Deep strikes & air defense

UAF Deep Strikes (Moscow, Tambov, Leningrad Oblasts): The UAF drone swarm (claimed >370 UAVs) struck deep into the RF rear. Wildberries logistics centers in Elektrostal (Moscow Oblast) and Kotovsk (Tambov Oblast) were confirmed hit by both OSINT and the company itself. The Elektrostal facility is experiencing massive fires; it is noted as the second-largest WB hub in RF. The Kotovsk strike resulted in 7 killed and 24 injured. RF claims 64 UAVs destroyed near Moscow and 6 over Leningrad Oblast (03:34:50Z Exilenova+; 03:41:32Z ASTRA; 03:53:40Z ASTRA; 03:53:51Z ТАСС; 03:57:46Z Два майора, confidence HIGH for strikes/casualties, MEDIUM for intercept claims).
RF Air Defense / Claims: RF claims to have neutralized the majority of the >370 UAV swarm on distant approaches. In Crimea, RF claims UAF used reactive drones.
RF Strikes in Ukraine: RF MoD claims continued strikes on port infrastructure and ships in Odesa Oblast. FPV and UAV strikes continue in Belgorod, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

RF Rear-Area Vulnerability: The confirmed strikes on major commercial logistics hubs (Wildberries in Elektrostal and Kotovsk) demonstrate UAF's precision and intent to disrupt RF domestic supply chains and e-commerce/logistics infrastructure, causing significant civilian casualties and economic impact.
RF Ground Offensive Posture: RF is maintaining high-tempo, multi-axis ground assaults. In the Zaporizhzhia sector, the "Vostok" grouping's push towards Orikhiv via Novoselivka indicates an intent to fracture UAF defensive lines and threaten the key logistical node of Orikhiv. In the Sumy/Kharkiv border area, "Sever" grouping is conducting localized urban/semi-urban fighting.
RF Border Vulnerability: Continued UAF FPV and drone strikes in Belgorod Oblast (Nikolskoye, Shebekino) are causing ongoing civilian casualties and demonstrating persistent cross-border pressure.

Friendly activity (UAF)

Deep Strikes: Successfully executed a massive, multi-axis drone swarm striking deep RF rear, achieving confirmed hits on critical logistics infrastructure (Wildberries in Elektrostal and Kotovsk) and inflicting casualties.
Ground Operations: UAF 158th Separate Assault Brigade conducted a counterattack in the Sumy direction (reportedly repelled by RF). UAF forces are maintaining defensive positions against RF assaults in Sloviansk, Pokrovsk, and Orikhiv directions.
Tactical Strikes: UAF continues drone and FPV operations in Belgorod, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, targeting RF logistics and causing civilian/military casualties. The UAF General Staff published its daily cumulative loss estimate graphic for July 18, 2026.

Information environment / disinformation

Palantir / SBU Narrative: ТАСС claimed the SBU uses US company Palantir technologies under the guise of data collection to strike "peaceful targets" (03:53:01Z, ТАСС, confidence LOW - standard RF disinformation theme to link UAF to Western tech and frame strikes as targeting civilians).
VDV Morale: Pro-RF channel "Дневник Десантника" published sanitized morale-boosting content for VDV (Airborne Forces), emphasizing discipline and routine to counter combat stress (04:01:01Z, confidence HIGH as PSYOP).

Outlook (next 6-12h)

Monitor BDA for the Wildberries facility in Elektrostal to assess the extent of logistics disruption in Moscow Oblast.
Track RF "Vostok" grouping's advance towards Orikhiv; watch for UAF reinforcement of the Kosivtseve-Verkhnia Tersa line to prevent the highway cut.
Expect continued RF aerospace and drone strikes against Ukrainian energy, port, and logistics infrastructure, given the clear weather conditions across the front.
Monitor RF information operations attempting to frame the Wildberries strikes as "terrorist attacks" on civilian infrastructure.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

Elektrostal BDA: Obtain satellite or high-resolution OSINT imagery to confirm the exact extent of damage to the Wildberries facility in Elektrostal and assess secondary fires.
Orikhiv Axis: Verify the exact locations of RF advances west of Novoselivka and assess UAF defensive posture along the Kosivtseve-Verkhnia Tersa line.
Leningrad Oblast Targets: Identify the specific targets of the 6 UAVs reportedly shot down over Leningrad Oblast to determine if UAF is expanding its deep strike targeting to regional energy/military nodes.
UAF 158th OMBr Status: Verify the operational status and current positions of the UAF 158th Separate Assault Brigade following the repelled counterattack in the Sumy direction.