Situation Report

Situation Update (1337Z JUN 25 2026)

Key updates since last sitrep

• STRATEGIC REFINERY STRIKES (1034Z, Operatyvnyi ZSU, MEDIUM): SBU "Alpha" units conducted OWA-UAV strikes on the "Bashneft-Novoyil" and "Bashneft-Ufaneftekhim" refineries in Ufa (~1500km from UA border). Fires confirmed at primary processing units (AVT).
• KINBURN SPIT WITHDRAWAL (1013Z, Alex Parker Returns, HIGH): Russian mil-bloggers have confirmed the evacuation of RF personnel from the Kinburn Spit following the UAF landing, corroborating earlier UAF reports.
• SHADOW FLEET INTERDICTION (1015Z, ASTRA, HIGH): The French Navy seized the tanker Deliver near Sicily for violating maritime law. The vessel was reportedly transiting from Primorsk to Singapore as part of the RF "shadow fleet" (OperativnoZSU, 1020Z).
• CRIMEAN ENERGY CRISIS (1016Z, Alex Parker Returns, HIGH): Peninsula-wide electricity restrictions implemented in Crimea; Sevastopol reporting 40% of base stations offline and water supply disruptions due to hydro-node power failures (Colonelcassad, 1025Z).
• ZAPORIZHZHIA SECTOR ADVANCE (1017Z, Dnevnik Desantnika, MEDIUM): RF forces claim to have seized UAF strongpoints west of Verkhnia Tersa and are attempting to "flatten" the line between Huliaipole and Ternovate.
• SBU COUNTER-INTELLIGENCE SUCCESS (1021Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH): SBU detained a Russian artillery spotter in Zaporizhzhia city responsible for directing strikes on civilian and military infrastructure.
• DEEP REAR LOGISTICS STRIKE (1034Z, Operatyvnyi ZSU, MEDIUM): UAF OWA-UAVs struck the "Poltavskaya" oil depot in Krasnodar Krai, a major hub with 28 storage tanks.

Operational picture (by sector)

1. Northeastern Sector (Sumy/Kharkiv):

• Air Activity: RF OWA-UAVs (Geran type) detected moving toward Bohodukhiv (1011Z). Multiple missile launches detected over Sumy moving southwest, passing Putyvl (1031Z, 1034Z).
• Ground Operations: Clashes continue near Krasnyi Lyman (Kommuna) with RF forces claiming to have taken 9 strongpoints and 38 buildings (1025Z, 1034Z).
• Weather: Kharkiv is 22.8°C, overcast (86% cloud). Luhansk is 20.6°C, 90% cloud. High cloud cover persists, aiding UAV concealment but limiting thermal visibility.

2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Luhansk):

• Kostiantynivka: High-intensity urban combat reported. RF claims control of 127 buildings and killing 90 UAF personnel in the last 24 hours (1025Z). UNCONFIRMED; LOW confidence.
• Lyman Axis: Geolocation confirms RF strikes on UAF positions near the railway station in Krasnyi Lyman (1034Z).
• Weather: Pokrovsk is 21.6°C, partly cloudy (77% cloud). Conditions are stable for tactical drone operations.

3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):

• Zaporizhzhia Axis: RF Group "Vostok" claims destruction of UAF robotic platforms (UGVs) near Barvinovka and Liubytske (1013Z). Intense RF artillery and drone pressure reported on the Velyka Mykhailivka—Oleksandrivka line aimed at severing the Orikhiv-bound logistics route (1017Z).
• Kinburn Spit: UAF is currently consolidating positions. No heavy RF counter-attacks reported yet, though secondary lines are likely being established on the mainland.
• Weather: Orikhiv is 29.4°C, overcast. Kherson is 31.5°C, partly cloudy. Heat stress remains a concern for dismounted infantry.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

• Fuel Logistics: The fuel crisis is cascading. Beyond earlier rationing in Dagestan, "preventative" limits have been introduced in Sakhalin (20L/person) due to "unjustified panic" (1030Z). The Ufa refinery strikes will significantly degrade RF's ability to maintain fuel reserves for the summer offensive.
• Counter-Drone Adaptation: RF is utilizing shotguns (e.g., Bekas-12M Aero) for short-range drone defense at the tactical level (1030Z).
• Internal Security: FSB claims to have prevented a "terrorist attack" on a court building in Mariupol, detaining a local resident (1035Z).

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Deep Strike Capability: The strike on Ufa (1,500 km) demonstrates a significant expansion of the UAF's operational reach and the vulnerability of the RF's strategic rear (1034Z).
• Interdiction: UAF continues "logistics lockdown" operations using new-generation FPV drones to strike RF transport and self-propelled artillery (SAU) in rear transit zones (1018Z).
• International Support: European Commission President confirmed the transfer of a €3.2 billion tranche (part of €90 billion total) to Ukraine today (1024Z).

Information environment / disinformation

• Demoralization Campaign (LOW CONFIDENCE): Russian Telegram channels are circulating a "leaked" casualty report claiming 2.4 million UAF losses. DEBUNKED: The report cites data for "August 2025" and "December 2026," identifying it as a poorly constructed fabrication (1029Z).
• Narrative Contradiction: Internal friction noted between RF units; Group "West" channels have openly debunked Russian MoD claims of an "encirclement" of Svyatogorsk, calling the claims "lies" by senior command (1035Z).
• Tech Sovereignty: RF Ministry of Digital Development is framing Apple's removal of VK apps as "unfair competition" and "politically motivated," while pro-RF bloggers are criticizing the Kremlin for failing to provide viable domestic alternatives (1029Z, 1033Z).

Outlook (next 6-12h)

• MLCOA: RF will intensify missile and OWA-UAV strikes on Sumy and Kharkiv energy infrastructure in retaliation for the Ufa refinery strikes.
• MDCOA: RF may attempt a breakthrough in the Orikhiv direction to capitalize on claimed tactical gains near Verkhnia Tersa before UAF reinforcements arrive.
• Crimea: Expect continued degradation of civilian services (water/telecom) as the grid fails to stabilize.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. UFA BDA (HIGH): Satellite imagery required to confirm the extent of damage to AVT (distillation) units at the Bashneft refineries.
2. KINBURN POSURE (MEDIUM): Determine if UAF is moving heavy EW or AD systems onto the Kinburn Spit to protect the Ochakiv corridor.
3. ZAPORIZHZHIA GROUND TRUTH (HIGH): Verify RF claims of capturing strongpoints near Verkhnia Tersa via OSINT/deep-state mapping.
4. FRENCH NAVY SEIZURE (MEDIUM): Monitor for RF retaliatory actions against French commercial shipping or diplomatic assets in the Mediterranean.