(15:10Z, South Defense Forces, HIGH): RF conducted 24 attacks across the Southern sector, with 15 concentrated in the Huliaipole direction and 10 aviation strikes utilizing 37 guided aerial bombs (KABs).
(15:25Z, Astra / Sobyanin, HIGH): UAF deep-strike UAV campaign penetrated Moscow airspace, with at least 7 drones downed over the capital region today.
(14:42Z, Rybar, HIGH): Massive UAF drone swarm struck multiple RF regions, including Orel, Tula (Novomoskovsk Azot), Smolensk (Vyazhma), and Yaroslavl (Rybinsk), causing industrial fires and localized "oil rain".
(14:28Z, Exilenova+ / Tsapliienko, HIGH): UAF drone strike confirmed on the OGIBDD (Traffic Police) headquarters in occupied Enerhodar, causing severe structural damage to the occupation administration node.
(14:15Z, Rybar, HIGH): GlobalSign began revoking SSL certificates for thousands of Russian domains due to international sanctions compliance, disrupting services like the MAX messenger and banking applications.
(14:05Z, RBC-Ukraine, MEDIUM): Zelenskyy and European allies are preparing three key requests for US President Trump at the upcoming G7 summit: Patriot missiles, financial aid, and stricter sanctions on the Russian oil shadow fleet.
(15:09Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): RF FPV drone struck a public transport stop in Zaporizhzhia raion, killing a 44-year-old civilian and wounding a 17-year-old.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern (Sumy / Kharkiv / Chernihiv): Overcast (13.0°C–13.5°C, 79–97% cloud cover, light winds 1.1-1.2 m/s). RF struck Putivl (Sumy Oblast), causing a residential building fire. UAVs targeted Kharkiv (Kholodnohirskyi and Kyivskyi districts), damaging a cultural center roof and warehouse fences; no casualties reported. UAF 113th TBri destroyed a camouflaged RF tank near Vovchansk. Multiple RF UAVs detected heading towards Kharkiv and Chernihiv.
Eastern (Donetsk / Luhansk / Kupiansk): Overcast (13.9°C, 94% cloud cover, 1.1 m/s wind). High-tempo attritional combat continues. RF forces attempted localized advances but face intense UAF FPV and artillery resistance.
Southern (Zaporizhzhia / Kherson): Overcast to mainly clear (16.9°C–17.3°C, 52-100% cloud cover, 2.2-2.4 m/s wind). RF executed 24 attacks across the Southern Defense Forces sector. The Huliaipole axis remains the primary effort with 15 assaults targeting Ribne, Dobropillya, and others. RF launched 37 KABs across frontline settlements. Civilian infrastructure was deliberately targeted: FPV strikes in Zaporizhzhia raion and Bilenke killed 2 and wounded 6.
Maritime / Deep Rear: UAF UAVs struck deep into RF territory (Moscow, Orel, Tula, Smolensk, Yaroslavl). Airspace danger declared in Lipetsk, and UAV threats triggered sirens in Gelendzhik and Sochi (Krasnodar). In occupied Enerhodar, UAF struck the OGIBDD building. UK forces seized the Russian shadow fleet tanker Smyrtos in the English Channel.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Ground Tactics: RF maintains a high assault tempo in the South (24 attacks), heavily relying on FAB/KAB drops (37 KABs in 24h) to degrade UAF fortifications. In the Huliaipole direction, RF is probing UAF defenses across multiple settlements.
Logistics & Sustainment: RF logistics face compounding pressure. The UK seizure of the Smyrtos tanker disrupts the shadow fleet. Internally, RF milbloggers (Kots) acknowledge fuel rationing (20L limits in DPR/LPR) but downplay it, claiming Sevastopol is lifting QR-code restrictions. RF units (e.g., Archangel Spetsnaz) are actively crowdfunding for Mavic drones, highlighting state supply shortfalls. RF is offering 1-year FPV operator contracts with 7M ruble sign-on bonuses to attract recruits without infantry reassignment.
Aerial & Missile Strikes: RF continues systematic KAB strikes and FPV terror attacks on civilian infrastructure (Zaporizhzhia bus stop). UAF deep strikes are overwhelming local RF air defenses, successfully hitting strategic nodes (Azot plant, Rybinsk fuel, Moscow).
C2 & Morale: RF information space is actively managing the narrative around fuel shortages and falling approval ratings, with milbloggers urging resilience. The GlobalSign certificate revocation introduces new cyber/tech friction for RF state and financial services.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Deep Strikes & Interdiction: Successful saturation strikes on RF rear areas (Moscow, Tula, Yaroslavl, Smolensk, Orel). Precision strike on OGIBDD in Enerhodar degrades occupation administration.
Air Defense & Counter-UAS: Zaporizhzhia OVA claims 590 RF aerial targets destroyed over the past week. UAF successfully defended Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia from multiple UAV swarms.
Tactical Operations: UAF repelled 24 RF attacks in the South, specifically halting advances in Orikhiv and Vorone directions. 113th TBri successfully engaged RF armor near Vovchansk.
Information Operations: Leveraging diplomatic coordination for the G7 summit to secure Patriots and shadow fleet sanctions. Highlighting RF tech degradation via the GlobalSign certificate revocations.
Information environment / disinformation
UAF Narrative - "Systemic RF Degradation & Diplomatic Unity": Emphasizing successful deep strikes, diplomatic coordination (G7 prep), and RF systemic vulnerabilities (tech isolation via GlobalSign, logistics strain).
RF Narrative - "Resilience & Western Piracy": Downplaying fuel shortages (Kots claims "roses are blooming" and fuel is available). Framing the UK seizure of the Smyrtos as "piracy". Pushing back against UAF psyops regarding domestic approval ratings.
Disinformation / Fake News: RF channels (Operation Z) circulated a fabricated story claiming Polish President "Nawrocki" gave Zelenskyy an ultimatum over UPA naming (Nawrocki is not president, date was 2026). RF also pushed a fake Trump statement regarding a Beirut attack and Iran deal (dated 2026).
Diplomatic Info Ops: Zelenskyy-Trump phone call confirmed, discussing negotiations and G7 prep, described as "normal" and substantive.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RF will continue high-tempo attritional assaults in the Huliaipole and Pokrovsk directions, utilizing KABs to degrade UAF fortifications. UAF will maintain active defense and continue deep-strike UAV operations targeting RF energy and logistics nodes.
MDCOA: RF attempts a localized breakthrough in the Huliaipole sector exploiting the high volume of assaults. RF executes retaliatory cyber or asymmetric attacks in response to the Smyrtos seizure and continued deep-strike campaign.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Huliaipole Defensive Line:CR: Task ISR to assess the integrity of UAF fortifications in Ribne and Dobropillya following 15 RF assaults and heavy KAB usage.
Rybinsk & Novomoskovsk BDA:CR: Obtain satellite imagery to confirm structural damage at the Rybinsk fuel depot and Novomoskovsk Azot plant, and assess the geographic extent of the "oil rain" contamination zone.
RF FPV Operator Recruitment:CR: Monitor the efficacy of the new 1-year FPV contract campaign (7M ruble bonus) on RF force generation and unit readiness.
GlobalSign Certificate Revocation Impact:CR: Assess the operational impact of SSL certificate revocations on RF military C2, logistics apps, and state services (e.g., MAX messenger).
