Large-Scale IDF Aerial Offensive (1801Z, ASTRA, HIGH): The IDF reports approximately 200 fighter jets struck nearly 500 targets across Iran, specifically targeting air defense (IADS) and missile launch sites near Tabriz and other strategic hubs.
Kinetic Strikes on US Facilities in Iraq (1812Z-1814Z, Rybar/Colonelcassad, HIGH): Iranian-linked forces targeted the US Consulate and a military base in Erbil with UAVs. Significant ground-level fires and damage to residential structures are confirmed.
Confirmed Urban Damage in Dubai (1813Z-1817Z, TASS/ASTRA, HIGH): Visual evidence confirms kinetic impacts near Fairmont The Palm, Dubai. Footage shows multiple burned-out vehicles and a "streaking object" over the skyline. Reports indicate Dubai airports are closed, potentially stranding international officials, including the Italian Defense Minister (MEDIUM).
Maritime Exclusion & Insurance Withdrawal (1753Z-1820Z, Multiple, HIGH): The US Department of Transportation has ordered all US-flagged vessels to exit the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea until March 7. Maritime insurers have begun withdrawing coverage for vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
Regional Escalation & Coalition Building (1800Z, Alex Parker Returns, MEDIUM): The United Kingdom and Germany have officially announced their intent to join the coalition for the defense of Israel.
Narrative Push on Security Guarantees (1754Z-1818Z, Operatsiya Z/Kotenok, MEDIUM): Russian and Ukrainian channels are amplifying statements from GUR Chief Budanov claiming Russia is prepared to accept US security guarantees for Ukraine (Article 5 model) as part of a demilitarized zone (DMZ) negotiation.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Sumy):
Air Activity: A "high-speed target" (likely a cruise missile or high-performance aircraft) was detected transiting toward Chuhuiv at 1754Z (Air Force UA).
UAV Ingress: Shahed-type UAVs are currently entering Ukrainian airspace from the north, targeting Sumy (1805Z).
Weather: Kharkiv/Vovchansk is currently 0.4°C with 38% cloud cover. The clearing skies relative to earlier overcast conditions may increase the effectiveness of Russian optical ISR and glide bomb (KAB) strikes over the next 6 hours.
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Combat Technology: The UAF 100th Separate Mechanized Brigade successfully neutralized a Russian fiber-optic-guided FPV drone, a significant technical adaptation designed to bypass electronic warfare (EW) (1803Z, Sternenko).
Force Sustainment: Russian internal communications highlight a "patriotic festival" in Kamyshin for the families of the 33rd Guards Motor Rifle Regiment (20th GMRD), likely a morale-boosting effort for units deployed in the SVO zone (1803Z).
UAV Operations: New UAV threats are identified in the Mykolaiv region moving toward Snihurivka (1809Z).
Weather: Conditions in Kherson (3.0°C, 15% cloud) and Orikhiv (2.2°C, 47% cloud) remain favorable for persistent aerial surveillance and drone operations.
4. Strategic Theater (Middle East/Global):
C2 Status: Conflicting reports regarding the Iranian leadership. While the Iranian MFA declined to comment on Supreme Leader Khamenei's health (1752Z), subsequent reports claim he is directing operations from a situational headquarters (1808Z).
Collateral Damage: Iranian Ministry of Education claims approximately 90 fatalities following strikes hitting three school buildings across the country (1805Z, TASS).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Iranian Course of Action (COA): Iran has transitioned from "pulse" launches to broader regional targeting of US diplomatic and commercial hubs (Dubai/Erbil). The use of UAVs against power stations in Erbil suggests a strategy of infrastructure degradation to match US/Israeli strikes on Iranian assets.
Russian Course of Action (COA): Russia is leveraging the "Budanov narrative" to project an image of diplomatic flexibility while maintaining kinetic pressure on Kharkiv and Sumy. The deployment of fiber-optic FPVs indicates a tactical shift to circumvent UAF EW dominance at the tactical level.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: Territorial air defense units in Chuhuiv and Sumy are on high alert following the 1754Z-1805Z ingress of high-speed targets and UAVs.
Counter-FPV: Successful engagement of fiber-optic drones indicates UAF units are adapting to non-standard Russian guidance systems.
Information environment / disinformation
"Epic Wrath" (1816Z): Use of the term "Epic Wrath" by CENTCOM-linked sources is appearing in Ukrainian channels; status as an official operation name is UNCONFIRMED (LOW confidence).
Dubai Fabrications (1806Z): Some Russian channels (Alex Parker) are using AI-generated or sensationalized imagery (including Hasbulla) to exaggerate the scale of destruction in Dubai.
Budanov Negotiations: The sudden, synchronized push of "Russia accepts US security guarantees" across pro-Russian "Z-channels" suggests an organized information operation intended to sow confusion regarding Russian war aims or to frame Ukraine as the party refusing a "viable" peace.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely COA: Continued UAV/missile strikes on Sumy and Kharkiv. In the Middle East, a high probability of further strikes on commercial shipping in the Arabian Sea as vessels attempt to comply with US DOT exit orders.
Most Dangerous COA: A direct Iranian kinetic strike on high-density Western military or diplomatic housing in Bahrain or the UAE, potentially triggering a wider UK/German kinetic intervention.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TACTICAL]: Confirm the specific nature of the "high-speed target" near Chuhuiv (ballistic vs. cruise missile).
[LOGISTICS]: Verify the status of Italian and other EU diplomatic personnel in Dubai to assess potential political constraints on future coalition actions.
[TECHNICAL]: Obtain wreckage/data on the Russian fiber-optic FPV to determine the range and spool capacity of the guidance system.
[BATTLE DAMAGE]: Confirm the operational status of the US Consulate in Erbil following the reported UAV impact.
