Destruction of Iranian Supreme Leader’s Residence (1124Z-1136Z, Multi-source, HIGH): Satellite imagery and local footage confirm the destruction of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's residence in Tehran following an air strike. Iranian media claims leadership figures are safe (1130Z).
Clearing of Air Alerts in Kyiv/Zaporizhzhia (1127Z-1130Z, UAF/KMVA, HIGH): Air defense alerts for ballistic threats have been lifted for Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia city, though missile threats remain for the broader Zaporizhzhia region.
IDF Strikes on Iranian Missile Infrastructure (1138Z-1149Z, TASS/ASTRA/UAF, MEDIUM): The IDF claims to have struck hundreds of military targets, specifically targeting ballistic missile launchers in Western Iran.
Forced Mobilization of Students in Russia (1125Z-1129Z, Astra/Dozhd/Tsaplienko, MEDIUM): Reports from Kazan and Samara indicate college students, particularly those with academic debt, are being coerced into military contracts under threat of expulsion.
Lipetsk UAV Threat (1138Z, Igor Artamonov, HIGH): A region-wide UAV attack threat has been declared for the Lipetsk Oblast.
Strike on US/Coalition Bases in Jordan and Kuwait (1132Z-1143Z, Colonelcassad, LOW): Unconfirmed reports and video footage suggest strikes on the Muwaffaq Salti Base (Jordan) and damage to a runway at a US facility in Kuwait.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Sumy):
Status: Explosions reported in Kharkiv region (1122Z) following the earlier ballistic threat. Localized combat continues; no major territorial changes since the consolidation of Neskuchne.
Weather (1145Z): 0.9°C, 99% cloud cover (overcast), wind 1.6 m/s. High cloud cover continues to limit optical ISR.
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Status: In the Dobropillya direction, the Russian 177th Marine Regiment (Tsentr Group) is actively using mortar systems to target UAF artillery positions (1137Z).
Status: Russian 114th Motorized Rifle Regiment (5th Army) reported conducting drone-corrected thermal strikes on UAF personnel near Verkhnya Tersa (1150Z). While the city alert in Zaporizhzhia is cleared, the oblast remains under missile threat (1137Z).
Weather (1145Z): Orikhiv (5.0°C, 3% cloud); Kherson (5.4°C, 10% cloud). Optimal conditions for FPV and ISR operations.
4. Rear Areas/International:
Russia: Full UAV alert in Lipetsk.
Middle East: Kinetic intensity is at a peak. Aeroflot has cancelled all flights to Dubai and Abu Dhabi (1147Z). Qatar reported intercepting a "third wave" of Iranian missiles (1135Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Coerced Manpower Generation: The expansion of forced mobilization efforts to students in Kazan and Samara indicates a localized push to fill personnel gaps without a formal second wave of mobilization. This suggests sustained high attrition rates on the frontline.
Tactical Artillery/Mortar Focus: Russian "Tsentr" and "Vostok" groups are prioritizing the destruction of UAF "Unmanned Systems" assets and supporting artillery through rapid-response mortar and FPV strikes (1137Z, 1150Z).
Civilian Attrition (Information Component): Iranian sources (Mehr, IRNA) claim 40 dead in a school strike in Minab (1142Z). This is likely being leveraged to justify ongoing Iranian missile waves.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: Successfully managed the morning ballistic threat, clearing alerts for major population centers (Kyiv) by 1130Z.
Defensive Posture: UAF units in the Eastern sector are currently mitigating high-intensity Russian mortar and drone activity aimed at degrading Ukrainian artillery and EW nodes.
Information environment / disinformation
Saudi/UAE Involvement (FALSE/SENSATIONALIZED): Reports claiming Saudi Arabia and the UAE have officially joined the kinetic conflict against Iran (1122Z, 1126Z) are UNCONFIRMED and likely false. Official Saudi MFA statements only confirm diplomatic condemnation and regional solidarity (1131Z).
Regime Stability Narrative: Russian and Iranian sources are emphasizing that the Iranian leadership remains in control despite the strike on the Supreme Leader's residence, aiming to project resilience (1130Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): Russia will maintain a high tempo of localized strikes in the Kharkiv and Donetsk sectors while the international community remains focused on the Middle East. Continued UAV activity over Russian border regions (Lipetsk) is expected.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): Iran launches a fourth, more heavy-missile wave targeting US regional hubs (Kuwait/Jordan), prompting a full-scale regional war that further complicates Western logistics and military aid to Ukraine.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[BDA]: Verify the operational status of the Muwaffaq Salti Base (Jordan) and US assets in Kuwait following reported strikes.
[RUS MOBILIZATION]: Monitor for similar student mobilization reports in other Russian regions (beyond Kazan/Samara) to determine if this is a systemic new policy.
[TACTICAL LOSSES]: Confirm the extent of UAF artillery losses in the Dobropillya direction following Russian 177th Regiment mortar claims.
