UNCONFIRMED: Deep Strike on Yekaterinburg (1355Z, Alex Parker Returns, LOW): Reports allege Ukrainian "Flamingo" missiles targeted the Sverdlovsk region (Ural Mountains). Claims suggest four missiles launched, two intercepted, and two active near Yekaterinburg. If confirmed, this represents a significant expansion of strike range.
KAB Strikes on Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk (1354Z-1420Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation has launched Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) targeting Zaporizhzhia city and the border area between Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk, with trajectories heading toward southern Dnipropetrovsk.
Offensive Friction West of Huliaipole (1353Z, Zvizdets Mangustu, MEDIUM): The Russian 5th Combined Arms Army (CAA) is attempting to advance west of Huliaipole, but is reportedly facing operational difficulties due to "events" on its northern flank involving the 36th CAA.
Manipulation of Mobilization Registry (1400Z, Prosecutor General UA, HIGH): A mobilization center (RTC/TCK) operator in Eastern Ukraine was charged for illegally removing 15 individuals from the "Oberih" state registry.
US-Ukraine Security Agreement Parameters (1405Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): Official Serhiy Kyslytsia clarified that the forthcoming security agreement must include US Congressional ratification and a clear definition of "guarantees" to be effective.
Russian "Foreign Agent" Expansion (1417Z, TASS, HIGH): The Russian Ministry of Justice has updated its "foreign agent" registry, continuing the systematic suppression of civil society and independent media.
Deep Rear: Air raid sirens reported in the Ural Mountains (1355Z). This follows earlier reports of "Flamingo" missile interceptions in Chuvashia. The potential targeting of Yekaterinburg suggests a UAF capability to strike over 1,500km from the border, though damage assessment remains a critical gap.
Weather (Kharkiv/Vovchansk): 2.0°C, partly cloudy (38% cover), wind 1.6 m/s. Conditions remain favorable for tactical aviation and ISR.
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Kostiantynivka: A Russian soldier from the 72nd Brigade (reportedly suffering from frostbite) was captured by the Ukrainian 49th OSHB "Carpathian Sich" (1407Z).
Rear Operations (DPR): Russian EOD units from the 12th Separate Guards Engineer Brigade are conducting demining operations in liberated school buildings (1406Z).
Weather (Svatove/Pokrovsk): 0.7°C to 0.9°C, clear to mainly clear. Optimal conditions for drone operations and thermal observation.
Huliaipole: Increased Russian ground activity by the 5th CAA, though coordination issues with the 36th CAA are noted (1353Z).
Aerial Pressure: High-intensity KAB strikes are currently transitioning from Zaporizhzhia toward southern Dnipropetrovsk (1420Z). Air raid alerts remain active for the oblast.
Weather (Orikhiv/Kherson): 4.2°C to 6.0°C, clear to mainly clear. High visibility supports the reported Russian aerial bombardment.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Personnel and Recruitment: In Tomsk alone, over 500 criminals reportedly avoided prosecution in 2023 by signing military contracts (1416Z). This corroborates the sustained reliance on "Storm-Z" style recruitment to maintain frontline mass.
Tactical Course of Action (COA): Russia is increasingly utilizing KABs as a primary tool for interdicting the Zaporizhzhia-Dnipropetrovsk axis, likely attempting to soften defenses ahead of a broader push west of Huliaipole.
Bio-Technology Interest: Russian channels are closely monitoring Western developments in "bioelectronic insect swarms" for military use (1354Z), indicating an interest in next-generation autonomous ISR.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Counter-UAS: Demonstration of the "Typhoon" C-UAS system (1417Z) highlights ongoing efforts to mitigate the Russian FPV and Orlan-series drone threat.
Institutional Integrity: The prosecution of the TCK operator (1400Z) signals an active internal effort to maintain the integrity of the mobilization process amid high manpower demands.
Infrastructure Resilience: Zaporizhzhia hospital is converting shelters into professional medical training centers with UNICEF support (1405Z), enhancing medical readiness for urban combat scenarios.
Information environment / disinformation
Cognitive Operations: Russian sources are circulating manipulated quotes from Lviv Mayor Sadovyi to exaggerate Ukrainian combat losses and blame "incompetent command" (1414Z).
Internal Dissent Suppression: Irkutsk authorities banned a pro-Telegram rally scheduled for March 1st, citing "public safety" due to high expected turnout (1420Z), indicating Kremlin sensitivity to tech-related civil unrest.
Propaganda: Viktor Medvedchuk is promoting narratives of SBU-Telegram collaboration to delegitimize Ukrainian security services (1351Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): Continued KAB strikes on Zaporizhzhia and southern Dnipropetrovsk. Expect Russian forces to attempt to consolidate gains west of Huliaipole if the 5th/36th CAA coordination issues are resolved.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): If the "Flamingo" strikes in the Urals are confirmed, Russia may respond with a high-intensity "retaliation" strike package using ballistic or cruise missiles against Ukrainian C2 or energy hubs within the next 12 hours.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[FLAMINGO MISSILE BDA]: Confirm the presence and impact of Ukrainian strikes in the Sverdlovsk/Yekaterinburg region.
[36th CAA STATUS]: Identify the specific "events" on the 36th CAA's northern flank that are disrupting the 5th CAA's advance near Huliaipole.
[FIBER-OPTIC UAVs]: Monitor for further deployments of fiber-optic guided drones following the Kharkiv impact, as these render standard EW countermeasures ineffective.
[US-UA AGREEMENT]: Monitor for official US responses regarding the "Congressional ratification" requirement mentioned by Serhiy Kyslytsia.
