Intensified Kinetic Activity in Kharkiv (0854Z, 0859Z, Kharkiv ODA, HIGH): A Russian UAV strike hit the Novobavarskyi district, and a separate strike impacted an educational institution in Kharkiv.
Critical Air Defense Shortfall (0908Z, RBK-UA, HIGH): Ukrainian officials report a critical shortage of PAC-3 missiles necessary to intercept Russian ballistic threats.
Massive Assault Volumes in Kostiantynivka (0913Z, GenStaff UA, HIGH): Ukrainian forces repelled 24 Russian assaults in the Kostiantynivka direction over the last 24 hours, marking it as a primary focus of enemy effort.
Aviation Surge in Southern Sectors (0913Z, GenStaff UA, HIGH): Russian aviation conducted a wide-scale bombing campaign across 16+ settlements in the Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia regions.
Grid Instability in Occupied Donetsk (0859Z, Operatsiya Z, MEDIUM): Reports of a series of explosions in Donetsk have resulted in partial power outages across the city.
Unconfirmed Ukrainian Maneuver (0919Z, Colonelcassad, LOW): Pro-Russian sources claim a Ukrainian "mini-counteroffensive" in the open fields of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast was repelled with heavy losses. This remains UNCONFIRMED and likely constitutes part of a Russian information operation.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Sumy/Kursk):
Battlefield Geometry: High-intensity tactical engagements in the South Slobozhanskyi direction.
Weather (0915Z): Kharkiv/Vovchansk (0.4°C, 67% cloud, wind 2.1 m/s). Conditions are deteriorating toward overcast, which may degrade optical ISR later today.
Activity: UAF repelled 13 assaults near Starytsya and Pischane (0913Z). Sumy/Kursk border remains under heavy pressure with 11 KABs reported in the last reporting period.
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Kostiantynivka/Pokrovsk Vector: This remains the most contested axis. 24 assaults were repelled near Rusyn Yar and Ivanopillya. Pokrovsk continues to see high-tempo clashes (0913Z).
Weather (0915Z): Pokrovsk (0.4°C, 0% cloud, wind 4.8 m/s). Currently clear, providing optimal conditions for Russian tactical aviation and "Rubikon Centre" drone specialists.
Logistics/Infrastructure: Power outages reported in Donetsk following explosions (0859Z). Residual smoke in Luhansk suggests successful hits on Russian rear nodes overnight (0910Z).
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson/Odesa):
Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk: Massive Russian aviation activity targeting Orikhiv, Preobrazhenka, and several settlements in southern Dnipropetrovsk (Ivanivka, Lisne).
Odesa: Confirmed "series of strikes" on unidentified objects (0857Z).
UAV Incursions: New UAV detected moving toward Zaporizhzhia from the south (0911Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Precision Strike Capability: The Russian "Rubikon Centre" is actively publicizing the use of advanced FPV and thermal-equipped drones against UAF positions, indicating a refined C2 structure for unmanned systems (0903Z).
Aviation Dominance: Russia is exploiting the current lack of PAC-3 interceptors to conduct high-volume KAB and ballistic strikes across the southern and eastern frontlines.
Kursk/Sumy Pressure: Shift toward heavy use of guided bombs (11 KABs) to suppress Ukrainian bridgeheads/logistics rather than high-intensity ground assaults (only 1 repelled).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Posture: Successfully repelled high-volume assaults across all major axes (Kostiantynivka, Kupyansk, Sloviansk).
Law Enforcement: Significant internal security operation in Kyiv seized 50 tons of counterfeit alcohol, targeting the shadow economy and potential funding for illicit activities (0900Z).
Resource Constraints: Urgent requirement for PAC-3 missiles to maintain the integrity of the Integrated Air Defense System (IADS) against ballistic strikes.
Information environment / disinformation
Defeatist Narratives: Russian channels are circulating edited/context-stripped videos of former high-ranking UAF officials to criticize the 2023 counteroffensive, aiming to degrade current morale (0857Z).
Counter-Offensive Claims: Pro-Russian milbloggers are attempting to frame localized tactical movements in Dnipropetrovsk as a "failed strategic counteroffensive" to project an image of UAF exhaustion.
Digital Access: Promotion of specialized VPNs to allow Russians abroad access to restricted state portals suggests ongoing efforts to maintain administrative control over the diaspora.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): Continued exploitation of clear weather in the East for KAB strikes. Persistent UAV pressure on Zaporizhzhia and Odesa.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): A concentrated ballistic strike targeting Dnipropetrovsk or Kharkiv, leveraging the confirmed PAC-3 shortage to maximize damage to critical infrastructure or C2 nodes.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[DNIPROPETROVSK MANEUVER]: Verify the scale and intent of any UAF movements in Dnipropetrovsk; confirm or deny the Russian claims of a "failed mini-counteroffensive."
[PAC-3 STATUS]: Assess the remaining operational depth of PAC-3 stocks and identify priority sectors for immediate AD redistribution.
[RUBIKON CENTRE]: Determine the geographical basing of "Rubikon Centre" specialists to target their localized C2 and drone pilot hubs.
