Active KAB Strikes in Kharkiv (0651Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation has launched a fresh wave of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) targeting the Kharkiv region.
Attribution of Luhansk Oil Depot Strike (0704Z, Operativnyi ZSU, MEDIUM): The overnight precision strike on the occupied Luhansk oil depot is now attributed to operators from the 1st Separate Center for Unmanned Systems (SBS).
Reported UAF SSO Movement to Sumy (0653Z, TASS, LOW): Russian state media claims the UAF has redeployed groups from the 140th Special Operations Forces (SSO) Center to the Sumy sector. UNCONFIRMED; likely Russian information operation to justify increased targeting of the border region.
Overnight Port Infrastructure Targeting (0701Z, Poddubny, MEDIUM): Footage confirms Russian strikes overnight specifically targeted port infrastructure in the Odesa Oblast, correlating with earlier UAV flight path detections toward Vylkove.
Strategic Signaling on UK/French Deployments (0659Z, Operation Z/Daily Telegraph, LOW): Russian channels are amplifying Western reports regarding British and French paratroopers allegedly training for post-conflict peacekeeping missions in Ukraine.
Domestic Russian Militarization (0715Z, ASTRA, HIGH): Russia has formalized the introduction of a specialized UAV textbook for high school students, indicating long-term integration of unmanned systems training into the national curriculum.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Sumy):
Battlefield Geometry: No reported changes to the FLOC.
Threat Update: Active KAB launches (0651Z) pose an immediate threat to UAF defensive positions and civilian infrastructure. The alleged arrival of the 140th SSO Center in Sumy (0653Z) suggests a Russian expectation of increased UAF cross-border activity or sabotage operations.
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Luhansk Vector: Weather is -1.2°C and clear (0% cloud cover). Optimal visibility for high-altitude ISR and continued BDA of the oil depot strike.
Kostiantynivka Vector: Russian volunteer channels (Dva Mayora, 0700Z) are aggressively fundraising for this sector, reporting a 500,000 RUB donation for unspecified combat equipment, likely electronic warfare or drone components to counter UAF UGVs.
Kherson: 2.1°C, overcast (95% cloud cover). Visibility is significantly degraded, likely limiting tactical aviation and optical drone reconnaissance in the Dnipro River delta.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Aviation: Sustained use of KABs in the Kharkiv sector remains the primary threat to tactical stability.
Logistics Interdiction: Focus on Odesa port infrastructure (0701Z) indicates a continued Russian effort to disrupt Ukrainian maritime export capacity and maritime-based logistics.
Domestic Stress: Significant inflation in the Russian rear (8,000-10,000 RUB per person for catering; 650% increase in decor costs over 4 years) is forcing a shift in social behaviors (0659Z), though it has yet to impact military funding/volunteering significantly.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Unmanned Capabilities: The successful interdiction in Luhansk by the 1st Separate Center for Unmanned Systems (SBS) highlights the growing role of dedicated unmanned units in conducting deep-rear interdiction (0704Z).
Rear Area Management: The Specialized Prosecutor's Office reports the legal recovery of military real estate and border defense lands (0720Z), ensuring these resources are returned to state defense use.
Personnel/Family Support: Coordination HQ conducted meetings with families of the 107th TDF Brigade (0712Z) to address missing/captured personnel, essential for maintaining domestic morale.
Information environment / disinformation
"Peacekeeper" Narrative: Russian channels are using reports of UK/French paratrooper training (0659Z) to reinforce the narrative of "NATO intervention" and to preemptively frame any potential diplomatic settlement as a Western military occupation.
Inflexibility Messaging: Attribution of "total control" demands to Putin via Western press (The Independent) serves to signal Russian resolve and high tolerance for attrition (claiming 1.3M losses) to both domestic and international audiences (0704Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): Continued KAB strikes on Kharkiv Oblast throughout the morning. High visibility in the Luhansk and Donetsk sectors will likely result in increased Russian ISR and FPV activity.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): Russian forces may leverage the alleged SSO presence in Sumy as a pretext for a localized cross-border "preventative" strike or intensified artillery/missile bombardment of the Sumy city center and border hubs.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[SUMY SSO DEPLOYMENT]: Cross-reference TASS claims (0653Z) with SIGINT or friendly force tracking to confirm if the 140th SSO Center has actually redeployed or if this is a Russian deception.
[ODESA PORT BDA]: Identify specific berths or facilities damaged in the overnight Odesa strikes (0701Z) to assess impact on grain/cargo flow.
[HULYIAIPOLE STATUS]: Re-tasking required to verify the status of the 95th Air Assault Brigade units following previous (uncorroborated) Russian claims of surrender.
