Intensified Strike Profile in Zaporizhzhia (0513Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): Regional authorities confirmed 729 Russian strikes across 37 settlements within the last 24 hours, resulting in 17 civilian injuries and significant residential damage.
Active UAV Incursions (0452Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Hostile UAVs (likely Shahed-type) are currently active over the Zaporizhzhia region and the southern districts of Odesa, indicating a multi-vector loitering munition threat.
Advanced Drone Interdiction (0510Z, Voin DV, MEDIUM): Russian 35th Army (Vostok Group) is utilizing UAV-on-UAV engagement tactics in the Polozhskoe direction, reportedly using overhead drops to neutralize Ukrainian drones.
Combat in Forested Terrain (0501Z, Rybar, MEDIUM): Engagement reported in the forest belts near Ivanivka; tactical control remains contested as both sides utilize dense cover to mask movements.
Claims of Tactical Gains near Kostiantynivka (0503Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Pro-Russian sources report localized successes in the Kostiantynivka sector, potentially linked to the interdiction of Ukrainian UGV logistics noted in previous reports.
NATO-Partner Contingency Training (0518Z, RBK-Ukraine, UNCONFIRMED): Reports indicate British and French paratroopers conducted training in Brittany on February 24th focused on potential deployment scenarios for Ukraine, though no active deployment has been authorized.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Sumy):
Current Conditions: Vovchansk is -1.6°C with 95% cloud cover; wind 2.1 m/s.
Activity: Battles are focused on the forest massifs near Ivanivka (0501Z). The high cloud cover continues to complicate medium-to-high altitude ISR, favoring localized, low-altitude drone operations and small-unit infantry maneuvers.
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Svatove/Pokrovsk: Svatove is -3.2°C (clear); Pokrovsk is -2.9°C (25% cloud).
Kostiantynivka Vector: Russian forces are attempting to build on reported successes (0503Z). Following the targeting of Ukrainian "SKELE" unit UGVs, Russian forces are likely attempting to exploit disrupted Ukrainian last-mile logistics in this sector.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Current Conditions: Orikhiv is -0.8°C (70% cloud); Kherson is 1.0°C (96% cloud).
Zaporizhzhia/Polozhskoe: The sector is experiencing high-intensity kinetic activity. The 35th Army's use of thermal/night-vision equipped UAVs for counter-drone operations (0510Z) suggests an adaptation to Ukrainian nocturnal drone dominance. The 729 strikes reported (0513Z) indicate a massive use of tactical aviation, MLRS, and tube artillery to suppress Ukrainian defenses.
Odesa: New UAV threats are emerging from the south (0452Z), likely targeting port infrastructure or grain corridor logistics.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation and Missile Strikes: Russia has shifted to a high-volume saturation strategy in the Zaporizhzhia sector (729 strikes/24h). This level of expenditure suggests a concerted effort to degrade Ukrainian defensive lines and civilian resilience simultaneously.
Technical Adaptation: The deployment of "drone-vs-drone" tactics in the Polozhskoe direction and the previously reported fiber-optic drones in Kharkiv demonstrate a rapid pivot toward EW-immune and active-interdiction technologies.
Sustainment: Internal Russian reporting (TASS, 0509Z) continues to focus on "moral training" and domestic stability, potentially masking the personnel requirements of sustained high-attrition warfare.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Innovative Air Defense: Visual evidence (0518Z) suggests the deployment of "flying mobile fire groups"—likely drones equipped with kinetic or electronic countermeasures to intercept Russian loitering munitions at low altitudes.
Logistical Resilience: Despite Russian strikes on UGV units near Kostiantynivka, UAF continues to operate in contested forest belts, suggesting decentralized command and control of unmanned systems.
International Integration: The reported training of British and French paratroopers (0518Z) signals continued Western preparation for contingency operations, reinforcing long-term security guarantees.
Information environment / disinformation
Geopolitical Diversion: Russian channels are amplifying WSJ reports on Iran rejecting US nuclear deal demands (0508Z) to frame the Ukraine conflict as part of a broader, inevitable global confrontation with the West.
Normalization Narratives: Russian state media (TASS) is blending military interviews with mundane scientific/lifestyle reporting (astronomy, holiday gift preferences) to project a sense of normalcy and societal stability despite the ongoing "Special Military Operation."
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): Continued UAV strikes on Zaporizhzhia and Odesa; Russian forces will attempt to consolidate gains in the Kostiantynivka sector following their reported "successes."
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): Russian forces utilize the data from their 729-strike saturation of Zaporizhzhia to launch a localized mechanized breakthrough in the Polohivskyi or Zaporizhzhia districts while Ukrainian forces are focused on casualty evacuation and damage control.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[BATTLE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT]: Determine the specific targets of the 729 strikes in Zaporizhzhia to identify if Russian focus has shifted from frontline positions to energy/logistics hubs.
[COUNTER-UAV TACTICS]: Obtain technical specifications of the "flying mobile fire groups" to assess their scalability against massed Shahed/Geran swarms.
[KOSTIANTYNIVKA STATUS]: Verify the extent of Russian "successes" near Kostiantynivka; specifically, determine if the frontline has shifted or if the claim refers to the destruction of equipment (UGVs).
