Proposed Trilateral Negotiations (1925, RBC-UA, MEDIUM): President Zelenskyy announced plans for a potential meeting in Abu Dhabi (early March) involving Ukraine, the US, and Russia to discuss security guarantees and a leaders' meeting.
Drone Swarm Targeting Moscow (1937, Dva Mayora, LOW): Russian sources claim 19 Ukrainian UAVs were interdicted over the Moscow region today. UNCONFIRMED; pending official corroboration from independent sources.
Personnel Discrepancies and Domestic Unrest (1917, Tsaplienko, MEDIUM): Demonstrations occurred in Kyiv demanding the return of personnel missing/captured in Kherson (Krynky), coinciding with official data indicating over 90,000 Ukrainians are missing under special circumstances.
Legislative Shield for Foreign Personnel (1922, ASTRA, HIGH): The Russian State Duma passed a law prohibiting the extradition of foreign nationals serving under contract with the Russian Armed Forces (VS RF), formalizing legal protection for foreign recruits.
Tactical Electronic Warfare Adaptation (1922, Colonelcassad, LOW): Russian "Center" group forces claim to have successfully rammed/intercepted UAF drones reportedly equipped with "Starlink" terminals on the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiysk) axis. UNCONFIRMED.
Significant Enemy Attrition (1933, Operatyvniy ZSU, MEDIUM): Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces (USBS) claim to have inflicted over 7,400 casualties on Russian forces during the first 25 days of February using drone systems.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Sumy):
Sumy Region: Hostile tactical aviation launched Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) at targets in the region (1927).
Kharkiv Region: A group of Russian UAVs was detected moving west across the region (1928).
Weather: Kharkiv/Vovchansk is 0.0°C, 100% overcast, wind 2.3 m/s. Forecast indicates light rain (68% probability), which will continue to limit optical ISR and degrade unpaved transit routes.
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiysk) Axis: High-intensity drone warfare continues. Russian units are reporting successful interceptions of high-end UAF UAV assets (1922).
Luhansk/Svatove: Currently -0.5°C, 84% cloud cover. Forecast for Svatove and Pokrovsk indicates snow grains (98% probability) and saturated ground conditions (precipSum 3.7-6.8mm), maintaining significant "rasputitsa" (mud) constraints on heavy armor.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Zaporizhzhia Axis: A Russian strike in the Zaporizhzhia district resulted in at least one civilian casualty (1926). Russian "Dnepr" group reports utilizing mobile AD teams (heavy machine guns/small arms) to interdict UAF reconnaissance and heavy attack drones at night (1936).
Kherson Axis: Video evidence indicates continued combat operations near Ponyatovka (1920). Protests in Kyiv (1917) highlight the high casualty/missing rate associated with previous operations in the Krynky bridgehead.
Weather: Orikhiv is 1.4°C, 100% overcast. Forecast indicates light rain. Kherson is 0.6°C, wind 4.3 m/s.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action: Russia is maintaining a multi-vector strike posture (KABs in Sumy, UAVs in Kharkiv/Zaporizhzhia) while adapting its air defense to counter UAF drone dominance through mobile, small-arms-based AD teams.
Force Generation: The new non-extradition law for foreign contract soldiers suggests a strategic intent to stabilize and expand the "international legion" components of the VS RF by offering legal immunity to recruits from the Global South (e.g., Nigeria).
Technical Adaptation: Claims of intercepting Starlink-equipped drones suggest a focus on neutralizing UAF's long-range command-and-control capabilities at the tactical level.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Strategic Posture: Shift toward high-level diplomacy with the proposed Abu Dhabi trilateral format, though internal pressure regarding missing personnel (90,000+) poses a growing domestic political challenge.
Deep Strikes: Sustained UAV pressure on the Russian interior, specifically targeting the Moscow region, likely intended to force the redeployment of AD assets from the front.
Operational Interdiction: Continued high-efficiency use of Unmanned Systems Forces to attrit Russian personnel during the winter offensive phase.
Information environment / disinformation
Diplomatic Friction: The Ukrainian MFA has summoned the Hungarian diplomat for a second time today, citing "false statements" by FM Szijjártó (1936). This indicates a significant breakdown in bilateral communication regarding ongoing negotiations.
Negotiation Narratives: Russian sources are amplifying the Abu Dhabi meeting news, likely to frame Russia as an amenable partner for peace while maintaining tactical pressure.
Shift in US-Iran Context: Contrary to earlier reports of stalled talks, Iranian officials now claim "serious progress" in Geneva (1939), which may alter the timeline for potential Iranian ballistic missile transfers to Russia.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): Continued Russian KAB strikes in the Sumy sector and UAV incursions toward central Ukraine. Positional fighting in the Pokrovsk sector will remain dominated by FPV and EW engagements.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): Coordinated Russian missile/UAV strike on Zaporizhzhia or Kharkiv urban centers to exploit the current weather-induced degradation of UAF mobile AD visibility.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TECHNICAL]: Obtain imagery or SIGINT confirmation of "Starlink-equipped" UAF drones to verify Russian claims of ramming/interception.
[OPERATIONAL]: Confirm the specific impact locations and effectiveness of the reported 19-UAV strike on the Moscow region.
[STRATEGIC]: Assess the validity of the "90,000 missing" figure—determine the ratio of military vs. civilian and the impact of this disclosure on frontline morale.
[TACTICAL]: Monitor for the deployment of foreign contract units (VS RF) protected by the new non-extradition law to identify specific sectors of deployment.
