Ballistic Threat Rescinded (1248, UAF Air Force, HIGH): The nationwide threat of ballistic missile strikes has been declared over; air raid alerts for this specific threat are cancelled.
New UAV Incursion – Kharkiv (1250, UAF Air Force, HIGH): A new group of Russian UAVs is active over Kharkiv Oblast, specifically near Staryi Saltiv, Nova Vodolaha, and Krasnokutsk.
SSO Infiltration Ambush (1241, Operatyvnyi ZSU, MEDIUM): Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) successfully mined Russian infiltration routes in the North-Slobozhansky direction, destroying two enemy groups in a snowy/wooded environment.
Geneva Talks Commenced (1250, Operatyvnyi ZSU, HIGH): NSDC Secretary Umerov has confirmed the start of bilateral meetings in Geneva with US representatives Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
Kostiantynivka Sector Escalation (1305, WarGonzo, MEDIUM): Russian sources claim to have established positions on the outskirts of Kostiantynivka (DPR) and are attempting a wider encirclement of the Kostiantynivka–Kramatorsk–Sloviansk agglomeration.
Strategic Industrial Degradation (1242, Tsaplienko, UNCONFIRMED/LOW): Reports suggest Russia's only optical fiber plant has ceased operations for nearly a year following a Ukrainian drone strike, allegedly forcing domestic cable manufacturers to rely on Chinese imports.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern / North-Slobozhansky Sector:
Tactical Action: UAF SSO conducted successful deep reconnaissance and direct action missions. Use of prepared explosives on "infiltration routes" indicates a high level of situational awareness regarding Russian squad-level movements in wooded terrain.
Weather (1300 UTC): Overcast in Vovchansk (1.3°C). Ground remains saturated with light rain forecast (68% probability), continuing to restrict heavy mechanized movement to paved GLOCs.
Kostiantynivka Axis: High intensity. Russian forces are utilizing state media (Channel One) to amplify claims of positional gains on the city's outskirts (1305, WarGonzo). Concurrently, UAF "Phoenix" drone units are striking Russian logistics in this sector to disrupt the build-up for encirclement attempts (1251, Sternenko).
Pokrovsk Axis: Russian forces are reportedly attempting to sever UAF logistics (1259, Operatsiya Z).
Weather (1300 UTC): Light drizzle in Pokrovsk (1.0°C). High probability of snow grains (98%) and wind gusts up to 5.0 m/s will likely degrade tactical UAV efficiency over the next 6-12 hours.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia / Kherson):
Air Defense: Air raid alerts cleared as of 1252 (Zaporizhzhia OVA).
Weather (1300 UTC): Light rain in Orikhiv (3.4°C). In Kherson, wind speeds (5.9 m/s) remain at the threshold where small tactical UAV stability and flight times are compromised.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Tactical Adaptation: The Russian Duma has reportedly passed a law banning the extradition of foreign nationals serving in the Russian military (1258, Alex Parker Returns). This is a clear effort to stabilize recruitment pipelines for foreign "volunteer" units and prevent desertion to home countries for prosecution.
Recruitment Pressure: Observed advertising of military contracts (Unmanned Systems) within educational institutions in Cheboksary (1301) suggests an ongoing effort to recruit younger demographics, including potential targeting of minors for future enlistment.
Aviation Production: Russia claims to have launched serial production of the Tu-214 (1258, Basurin) to replace foreign airliners by 2026. If true, this indicates a shift in industrial priority toward civil-military aviation dual-use components to circumvent sanctions.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Standoff Operations: Continued reliance on drone-based interdiction (Phoenix unit) to offset Russian numerical advantages in the Kostiantynivka sector.
Internal Security: SBU is investigating a Lviv businessman/ex-MP (Ihor Kryvetskyi) for mobilization-related comments (1249, RBC-Ukraine), indicating a zero-tolerance policy toward public figures perceived as obstructing military readiness.
Logistics: Ongoing local government support from cities like Kryvyi Rih (1304) remains vital for unit-level resource replenishment.
Information environment / disinformation
"Terrorist Surge" Narrative (LOW/UNCONFIRMED): Russian mil-bloggers are claiming a massive spike in Ukrainian "terrorist attacks" across European Russia (1302, Arkhangel Spetsnaza). This is assessed as a coordinated messaging effort to frame Ukraine as an unreliable negotiator ahead of the Geneva talks.
Internal Ukrainian Friction: Reports of a shooting between TCC (recruitment) personnel in Odesa (1307, Tsaplienko) are being amplified to highlight internal social tensions regarding mobilization.
Georgian Policy: Georgia’s explicit refusal to join unilateral sanctions (1241, Colonelcassad) reinforces Russia's ability to maintain regional trade links despite Western pressure.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): Russian forces will continue localized probing attacks in the Kostiantynivka outskirts while leveraging the new UAV group over Kharkiv to identify gaps in northern Ukrainian air defenses.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): A coordinated offensive push on the Kostiantynivka–Kramatorsk line, exploiting current low-visibility weather that hinders UAF aerial surveillance and precision strikes.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TACTICAL]: Confirm the extent of Russian penetration on the outskirts of Kostiantynivka; verify if reported "encirclement tactics" are operational or aspirational.
[TECHNICAL]: Identify the specific drone type involved in the alleged strike on the Russian optical fiber plant to assess range and payload capabilities.
[HUMINT]: Verify the details of the shooting in Odesa TCC to determine if this indicates broader systemic instability within the mobilization command structure.
[STRATEGIC]: Monitor for first read-outs from the Geneva meeting to assess shift in US-Ukraine defense cooperation.
