Finalized National Air Strike Data (08:15, Air Force ZSU, HIGH): The UAF Air Force confirmed neutralizing 406 out of 459 total aerial targets during the overnight offensive. The strike package included 2 Zircon (from Crimea), 11 Iskander-M/S-400, 24 Kh-101, 2 Kh-69, and 420 UAVs (comprising Shahed, Gerbera, Italmas, and other types).
Major Energy Infrastructure Damage in Odesa (08:11, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): A critical electrical substation in Odesa Oblast sustained significant damage. This marks the 34th DTEK facility incident in the region, with officials warning of an extended repair timeline.
Zaporizhzhia Heating Disruption (08:28, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): Russian strikes have localized impact on the heating grid in parts of Zaporizhzhia, leaving sections of the city without thermal energy during sub-zero temperatures.
Kostiantynivka Evacuation Crisis (08:40, Anatoliy Shtirlitz, MEDIUM): Video evidence confirms elderly civilians are evacuating Kostiantynivka on foot via the Kostiantynivka-Druzhkivka route under continuous enemy fire.
Sustained UAV Ingress (08:14, Air Force ZSU, MEDIUM): A group of UAVs is currently tracked moving toward Zlatopol in the Kharkiv region.
UAF Tactical Strike (08:11, Butusov Plus, MEDIUM): The 68th Jaeger Brigade (Hornets of Dovbush) successfully conducted aerial strikes on Russian positions; specific location not disclosed, but likely in the Donetsk sector based on unit disposition.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern / Kharkiv Sector:
Weather (08:30 UTC): 0.9°C, light rain, 94% cloud cover, wind 2.3 m/s. High moisture and low ceilings persist.
Tactical Activity: Active UAV ingress continues toward Zlatopol. The persistence of "Gerbera" and "Italmas" drone variants suggests an attempt to identify and saturate local AD gaps while visibility for optical intercepts is low.
Tactical Activity: The Kostiantynivka-Druzhkivka GLOC is under active fire control, complicating civilian evacuation and likely UAF logistics. Mechanized maneuver remains restricted by "snow grains" and ground saturation.
Infrastructure Impact: The destruction of the Odesa substation and the loss of heat in Zaporizhzhia indicate a prioritized effort to degrade the Southern command's rear-area sustainability. Wind speeds of 5.4 m/s are within operational limits for UAV and KAB deployment.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Capabilities/Tactics: The enemy is utilizing a "munition mix" (Zircon/Iskander/Kh-101/UAVs) to overwhelm interception logic. The introduction of "Gerbera" and "Italmas" UAVs (Air Force ZSU, 08:15) indicates the use of cheaper, decoy-capable or specialized drones to facilitate the penetration of high-value ballistic munitions.
COA (Course of Action): Systematic targeting of the energy sector (34th hit in Odesa) suggests a strategic intent to trigger a "cascading failure" of the regional grid during the current cold weather window.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: Successfully achieved an ~88% interception rate (406/459) against a massive multi-domain attack. However, the 53 munitions that penetrated caused disproportionate damage to high-value energy nodes.
Counter-Tactical: The 68th Jaeger Brigade remains combat-effective, conducting precision aerial strikes against Russian frontline personnel.
Information environment / disinformation
Hungarian Hybrid Pressure (08:20, Tsaplienko, HIGH): PM Viktor Orbán has issued a direct demand to President Zelenskyy to reopen the Druzhba oil pipeline. This timing aligns with the massive infrastructure damage, likely intended to increase political pressure during a period of peak energy vulnerability.
Domestic Narrative (08:20, Colonelcassad, LOW): Russian channels are circulating "confession" videos of alleged activists supporting Ukrainian groups (Atesh) to reinforce domestic security narratives and justify crackdowns.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued UAV "probing" in the Kharkiv and Sumy sectors to identify AD relocations following the overnight massive strike. Further KAB strikes on Zaporizhzhia targeting the remaining utility infrastructure.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A secondary wave of ballistic missiles (Iskander/Zircon) targeting the already damaged Odesa substation and Zaporizhzhia heating plants while repair crews are exposed and AD magazines are depleted.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[BATTLE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT]: Confirm the specific impact point of the UAVs currently heading toward Zlatopol (08:14 update).
[TECHNICAL ISR]: Identify the specific technical signatures and electronic warfare (EW) resistance of "Italmas" and "Gerbera" drones to update AD jamming profiles.
[LOGISTICS]: Determine the viability of the Kostiantynivka-Druzhkivka route for military logistics given the reports of fire control over civilian evacuations.
[ENERGY]: Assess the specific "long repair time" requirements for the Odesa substation to determine the length of the blackout risk for the region.
