Diplomatic Breakthrough: Trump-Zelenskyy Call Details (19:28, Zelenskiy / Official, HIGH): President Zelenskyy confirmed a comprehensive call with Donald Trump, including advisors Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Discussion focused on the "PURL" air defense missile program and a multi-stage negotiation roadmap involving Geneva talks and a trilateral summit in March.
Heavy Munition Strike: Oleksiyevo-Druzhkivka Dam (19:10, Шеф Hayabusa, HIGH): Russian forces deployed a FAB-3000 (three-ton guided aerial bomb) against a dam near Oleksiyevo-Druzhkivka. Visual drone reconnaissance confirms the strike, intended to sever logistics to the Kostiantynivka sector.
Negotiation Timeline: Trilateral Meeting Postponed (19:11, TASS, MEDIUM): Sources indicate the planned trilateral meeting on Ukraine has been moved to early March, with the location still under negotiation.
Legislative Action: Military Social Protection (19:35, ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦, HIGH): The Verkhovna Rada has passed a new bill enhancing social protection frameworks for UAF personnel.
Energy Geopolitics: "Druzhba" Pipeline Alternative (19:25, RBC-Ukraine, MEDIUM): The EU has reportedly identified Croatia as a primary transit alternative to the "Druzhba" oil pipeline to circumvent Hungarian vetoes on energy policy.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Donetsk / Kostiantynivka Sector:
Current Conditions (19:30 UTC): 0.2°C, active snow, wind 2.7 m/s, 100% cloud cover. Snow accumulation is increasing, further restricting off-road maneuver.
Tactical Situation: The strike on the Oleksiyevo-Druzhkivka dam, following the earlier destruction of the Osykovo dam, indicates a Russian operational effort to flood terrain and destroy bridges, aiming to isolate UAF forces in Kostiantynivka from western supply lines.
High humidity and precipitation are degrading optical ISR and thermal signature detection.
3. Kharkiv / Northern Sector:
Current Conditions (19:30 UTC): 0.6°C, overcast, wind 1.2 m/s.
Stability in temperature near freezing suggests continued "Rasputitsa" (mud) conditions as light snow is forecast for the next 24 hours.
4. Zaporizhzhia / Orikhiv Sector:
Current Conditions (19:30 UTC): 1.9°C, drizzle, wind 3.5 m/s.
Tactical drone operations (32nd Brigade) continue despite marginal weather, with confirmed neutralization of Russian infantry (19:13, Оперативний ЗСУ).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Infrastructure Attrition: The transition to using FAB-3000 munitions against hydraulic structures (dams) marks an escalation in Russian attempts to use environmental engineering as a force multiplier. By creating localized flooding, Russia seeks to fix UAF units in place while logistical routes are impassable due to weather.
Internal Friction: Reports of the dismissal of Russian military blogger Kirill Fedorov from SolovyovLive (19:33, Два майора) suggest ongoing purges or tightening of the Russian information space regarding frontline reporting.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Strategic Diplomacy: The UAF leadership is securing commitments for the PURL air defense program, which is critical given the current strategic aviation threat identified in the previous sitrep.
Tactical Defense: The 32nd Brigade continues to demonstrate proficiency in drone-led attrition, successfully engaging Russian personnel near transit corridors (19:13, Оперативний ЗСУ).
Information environment / disinformation
Historical Revisionism: Valeriy Fadeev (Russian Human Rights Council) has called for a campaign against "fakes" regarding Stalin (19:35, Colonelcassad). This is assessed as a move to reinforce authoritarian sentiment and prepare the Russian public for prolonged, high-casualty warfare.
Diplomatic Mockery: Ukrainian channels are leveraging footage of Russian UN Rep Nebenzya’s Ukrainian ancestry to undermine his credibility as a regime spokesperson (19:07, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued Russian strikes on tactical bridges and dams in the Donbas to exploit the current snow/mud conditions and isolate UAF defensive pockets.
MDCOA: A coordinated strategic missile strike targeting the Ukrainian power grid or airfields, timed to coincide with the logistical friction caused by dam destructions and heavy snow in the East.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[BATTLE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT]: Verify the structural integrity of remaining bridges over the Kryvyi Torets river following the Oleksiyevo-Druzhkivka dam strike.
[LOGISTICS]: Identify alternative GLOCs (Ground Lines of Communication) into Kostiantynivka that are viable for heavy vehicles under 100% snow/cloud conditions.
[DIPLOMATIC]: Monitor for the specific location and attendee list of the early March trilateral summit to determine the level of Russian/US engagement.
[TECHNICAL]: Obtain specifications for the "PURL" air defense program to assess integration timelines with existing UAF air defense architecture.
