Diplomatic Engagement: Trump-Zelenskyy Communication (18:12-18:25, Axios/Multiple, HIGH): Multiple sources confirm a telephonic conversation is currently underway between President Zelenskyy and Donald Trump regarding peace negotiations.
Precision Strike: FAB-3000 on Osykovo Dam (18:18-18:33, Two Majors/Colonelcassad, HIGH): Russian forces utilized a high-yield FAB-3000 bomb with a UMPK guidance kit to strike a dam structure near Osykovo (Druzhkivka/Kostiantynivka axis), specifically targeting Ukrainian logistics.
Territorial Claim: Grafskoye, Kharkiv (18:25, RU MoD, MEDIUM): The Russian Ministry of Defence officially claims the 82nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (Sever Group) has captured Grafskoye. This remains UNCONFIRMED by UAF but has increased credibility following unit-specific identification.
Rear Area Strike: Dnipropetrovsk Lancet Attack (18:17, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Video evidence indicates a Russian "Lancet" loitering munition strike on a Ukrainian BM-21 Grad MLRS launcher in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Tactical Engagement: Zaporizhzhia Stronghold (18:21, RU MoD, MEDIUM): Russian Vostok Group scouts reportedly seized a UAF stronghold using FPV drone suppression, resulting in 2 UAF fatalities and 3 personnel surrendering.
Air Threat: Strategic Aviation Alert (18:35, Tsaplienko, MEDIUM): Active communication on Russian strategic aviation command channels suggests a high probability of impending combat sorties.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Kharkiv / Northern Sector:
Russian offensive operations are reportedly focused on the border areas. The 82nd Motorized Rifle Regiment is the primary actor in the claimed seizure of Grafskoye.
Russian forces are transitioning to high-yield standoff munitions (FAB-3000) to degrade Ukrainian infrastructure (dams) near Osykovo to disrupt ground lines of communication (GLOCs).
Weather (18:30 UTC): 0.1°C, active snow (0.4mm precip), wind 2.1 m/s. Snow accumulation is likely further restricting heavy vehicle movement and obscuring thermal signatures.
3. Zaporizhzhia Sector:
Increased activity by Russian scout units (Vostok Group) indicates a focus on local stronghold reduction through FPV-heavy assault tactics.
Weather (18:30 UTC): 2.1°C, light rain, wind 3.1 m/s. High humidity and precipitation (0.1mm) continue to degrade optical ISR.
4. Rear Areas / Dnipropetrovsk:
Expansion of Russian loitering munition (Lancet) range or deployment of mobile launch teams is evidenced by the strike on MLRS assets in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action (COA): Russia is intensifying "interdiction of the rear" by targeting infrastructure (dams) and mobile artillery (MLRS) using a combination of heavy aerial bombs and loitering munitions.
Tactical Adaptation: Russian "Vostok" units are demonstrating a high reliance on FPV drones to suppress strongholds before infantry entry, reducing Russian assault casualties.
Strategic Intent: Rhetoric from UN Representative Nebenzya and Peskov suggests a protracted conflict posture ("as long as it takes") while maintaining an invitation for Ukraine to negotiate only on Russian terms in Moscow.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Technological Innovation: UAF is successfully deploying ground robotic complexes (UGVs) for lethal engagements, as evidenced by the elimination of two Russian personnel via remote-operated machine gun fire (Butusov, 18:22).
Internal Security & Legal: The SBU "cleansing" continues with new detentions. Legally, the MoD is tightening regulations regarding unauthorized absence (SZCh) while preparing for a 12.1% pension indexation on March 1st to maintain social stability.
Accountability: The General Inspectorate (OGP) has intervened in a high-profile fatal DUI case involving a prosecutor in Lviv, signaling an effort to maintain public trust in the rule of law.
Information environment / disinformation
Hybrid Narratives: Pro-Russian channels (Two Majors) are circulating claims that the Verkhovna Rada (Draft Law № 13646) is cutting payments to families of missing soldiers. This is assessed as a targeted psychological operation to undermine military morale.
Global Posturing: Russian state media is promoting a "business as usual" narrative (e.g., TASS reporting on a soldier-actor attending a movie premiere) to project domestic stability.
Border Friction: Reports of tunnels on the Polish-Belarusian border (via The Telegraph) are being amplified to highlight regional insecurity.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued tactical pressure in the Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv sectors. High probability of a multi-vector missile/UAV strike if strategic aviation sorties are confirmed.
MDCOA: Large-scale infrastructure damage from high-yield munitions (FAB-3000) leading to localized flooding or logistics collapse on the Kostiantynivka axis.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[BATTLE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT]: Urgent need for satellite or drone imagery of the Osykovo dam to assess if the FAB-3000 strike caused structural failure or flooding.
[FORCE POSTURE]: Verify the presence and strength of the Russian 82nd Motorized Rifle Regiment in Grafskoye (Kharkiv).
[STRAT-AIR]: Monitor Olenya and Engels airbases for Tu-95MS/Tu-160 take-offs following the intercept of command channel communications.
[ELECTRONIC WARFARE]: Assess the effectiveness of current UAF EW against the Lancets operating deep in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
