New Russian Munition Deployment (17:21, MoD Russia, MEDIUM): Russian "Tsentr" Group of Forces has operationalized "Molniya-2" fixed-wing FPV drones, utilizing 3D-printing for rapid production, targeting Ukrainian positions in the Dnepropetrovsk direction.
UAF Tactical Success in Lyman (17:08, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, HIGH): The "FATUM" unit of the 60th OMBR (Third Army Corps) destroyed Russian infantry, a mortar, and a supply shelter using FPV strikes in snowy conditions.
US Diplomatic Signaling (17:29, РБК-Україна, MEDIUM): Reports indicate US Vice President Vance has stated the Trump administration is instructing teams to negotiate an end to the conflict, based on recent US media interviews.
Strategic Pipeline Allegations (17:35, ТАСС, LOW): Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjártó claimed that the actors responsible for the Nord Stream sabotage are currently blocking the Druzhba pipeline in Ukraine. [UNCONFIRMED]
Internal Security Action (17:11, ASTRA, HIGH): German authorities detained a suspect in the 2025 murder of former Yanukovych-era official Andriy Portnov.
Rosgvardia Expansion (17:17, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Rosgvardia Head Viktor Zolotov reported a 1.5x increase in weapons and equipment orders during 2025, signaling long-term militarization of internal security forces.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Battlefield Geometry & Environment:
Lyman Sector: UAF 60th OMBR is maintaining active defense through precision drone strikes despite snow cover. Visibility is degrading, but loitering munitions remain the primary tool for interdicting Russian "last-mile" logistics and mortar positions.
Dnepropetrovsk / Southern Sector: Russian forces are intensifying the use of fixed-wing loitering munitions (Molniya-2). This suggests an attempt to extend the range of tactical FPV strikes beyond the immediate line of contact (FLOT).
Analysis: Fog in the Svatove/Lyman sector and rain/snow in Pokrovsk are creating sub-optimal conditions for standard optical ISR. Russian use of "Molniya-2" drones may be an adaptation to maintain pressure despite these ceilings.
2. Control Measures:
Domestic Russian infrastructure is showing signs of strain; a "collapse" of the Paveletsky rail line in Moscow has caused multi-hour delays (17:11, Новости Москвы).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action (COA): Russia is leaning into industrial-scale tactical drone production (3D-printed "Molniya-2") to offset Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) and weather-related sensor degradation.
Internal Security: The significant increase in Rosgvardia procurement (1.5x) suggests the Kremlin is prioritizing domestic stability and the policing of occupied territories as much as frontline combat.
Technical Threat: M-class solar flares reported by IKI RAS (17:14) are currently assessed as a non-threat to Earth-based communications or satellite GPS, though monitoring of HF radio interference continues.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Precision Attrition: UAF units (specifically 60th OMBR) are successfully utilizing snowy terrain to identify and strike Russian heat signatures (shelters and motorized equipment) via FPV.
Institutional Development: Molfar Intelligence Institute is preparing a comprehensive intelligence methodology release, indicating a continued push for professionalization within the Ukrainian OSINT/Intelligence community (17:30).
Information environment / disinformation
"Busification" Narratives: Russian channels (Colonelcassad, 17:33) are amplifying footage of forced mobilization in Kyiv to undermine domestic morale and fuel civil unrest.
Diplomatic Friction: Hungarian claims regarding the Druzhba pipeline (17:35) are likely intended to complicate EU-Ukraine energy cooperation and frame Ukraine as an unreliable transit partner.
Mockery of Leadership: Coordinated Russian efforts to discredit former Commander Zaluzhnyi continue, using Chatham House footage to portray him as "disgraced" (17:23).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued Russian FPV and loitering munition pressure in the Dnepropetrovsk and Pokrovsk sectors. Expect increased use of fixed-wing drones to bypass localized EW.
MDCOA: Russian forces may attempt localized "probing" attacks in the Svatove/Lyman fog (visibility <1km) to exploit gaps in UAF's thermal-enabled drone orbits.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TECHNICAL SPECIFICATIONS]: Need data on the "Molniya-2" drone's frequency hopping capabilities and resistance to current UAF EW jamming profiles.
[LOGISTICS]: Monitor for disruptions in Russian rail logistics following the Paveletsky line "collapse" to see if this affects military throughput to the southern front.
[ENERGY SECURITY]: Verify the operational status of the Druzhba pipeline following Szijjártó’s claims to determine if physical blockages or technical issues exist.
[ROBOTIC THREAT]: Assess the scale of 3D-printing facilities within the Russian "Tsentr" Group to estimate the monthly production capacity of fixed-wing loitering munitions.
