Ballistic Threat Clearance (14:44, AFU Air Force, HIGH): The immediate threat of ballistic missile strikes against southern regions (Odesa/Mayaky) has been cleared; however, regional alerts persist in other sectors.
Persistent Missile Threat in Zaporizhzhia (14:50, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): While the air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia city has ended, a missile threat remains active for the broader Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
New Long-Range Russian Munition Claim (14:43, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Kalashnikov Concern has reportedly developed a tactical guided munition with a range exceeding 100km, citing "SVO experience." This potentially increases the depth of Russian precision strikes.
Academic Mobilization Quotas (14:45, ASTRA, MEDIUM): Far Eastern Federal University (FEFU) has allegedly established specific quotas (32 students) for male students to be pressured into Russian Ministry of Defense contracts by February 2026.
Psychological Operations Targeting POW Families (14:55, UA POW Coordination HQ, HIGH): Ukrainian authorities issued a formal warning that Russian special services are using manipulative "life-or-death" ultimatums to exploit the families of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs).
Social Unrest Regarding Missing Personnel (14:55, RBC-Ukraine, MEDIUM): Families of missing soldiers from the 35th Brigade held a public vigil as the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense updated financial compensation protocols for families of the missing.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Kostiantynivka Axis: Combat remains high-intensity. Elements of the Russian 78th Motorized Rifle Regiment ("Sever-AKHMAT") claim to have neutralized UAF trench positions and a two-story building using FPV drones (14:36, Kadyrov_95, LOW). This corroborates previous reports of heavy attrition-based fighting in the sector.
Bakhmut/Kharkiv Transition: The "Khartia" unit assessment emphasizes that stabilizing the front for "several months" is a prerequisite for any diplomatic leverage (14:37).
2. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson/Odesa):
Missile Defense: Following the ballistic strike on Mayaky (Odesa), the threat level has partially subsided, though the Zaporizhzhia region remains under high alert for potential incoming cruise or ballistic ordnance (14:50).
Rear Logistics: Clearance of ballistic threats allows for the resumption of local logistics, though "Rasputitsa" conditions (identified in the 14:37 sitrep) continue to limit movement to paved MSRs.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Technological Adaptation: The introduction of a purported 100km+ guided munition (14:43) suggests a Russian effort to bridge the gap between tactical KABs and theater-level ballistic missiles (Iskander-M).
Forced Recruitment: The use of university quotas (14:45) indicates a shift toward targeted, coercive mobilization within the Russian educational system to maintain force generation without a general mobilization decree.
Course of Action (COA): Russia is intensifying hybrid pressure by combining kinetic strikes with psychological operations (ultimatums to POW families) to degrade Ukrainian social cohesion (14:55).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Personnel & Welfare: The Ministry of Defense has issued clarifications regarding "combat pay" for January 2026 (14:51) and revised compensation for families of the missing (14:55). These moves are likely intended to address internal morale and grievances expressed by families of the 35th Brigade.
Operational Stance: Tactical units (e.g., Khartia) are signaling a long-term defensive posture, asserting that preventing any Russian territorial gain for several months is the current strategic priority (14:37).
Information environment / disinformation
Platform Sovereignty: The Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada's Committee on Freedom of Speech is discussing the creation of a "safe alternative" to Telegram integrated into the Diia state services app (14:52). This reflects growing security concerns over Russian influence on Telegram.
Propaganda: Russian state media continues to focus on Putin's "Forum of Future Technologies" appearances (14:42, 14:45) to project an image of scientific stability and biotech advancement, distracting from the ongoing security crackdown in Moscow.
Psychological Warfare: Confirmed use of "ultimatum-based" messaging by Russian services to terrorize Ukrainian non-combatant families (14:55).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued positional fighting in the Kostiantynivka sector with heavy use of FPV and KABs. Missile threats to Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro oblasts will likely trigger further air raid cycles.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): Deployment and combat testing of the new 100km+ Kalashnikov munition against high-value Ukrainian C2 or logistics hubs that were previously considered outside the tactical strike zone.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[NEW MUNITION VERIFICATION]: Obtain technical specifications or wreckage analysis of the purported 100km "Kalashnikov" munition to determine its guidance system and intercept profile.
[35TH BRIGADE STATUS]: Clarify the current operational status and location of the 35th Brigade to assess the validity of the families' grievances regarding "missing" personnel.
[RECRUITMENT QUOTAS]: Monitor other Russian regional universities (beyond FEFU) for similar military recruitment quotas to determine if this is a localized or federal-level policy.
[DIIA MESSAGING]: Assess the technical feasibility and timeline for the proposed Diia-based communication platform to mitigate Telegram-based intelligence leaks.
