High-Level Internal Security Operation (13:46, Шеф Hayabusa, HIGH): The SBU has reportedly detained the Commander of Logistics for the AFU Air Force and the head of the Zhytomyr SBU for a $320,000 bribery scheme involving airfield protection construction.
Deep Strike on Russian Strategic Industry (13:38, WarGonzo; 13:48, TASS, HIGH): A Ukrainian strike on the "Dorogobuzh" plant in Smolensk Oblast resulted in at least seven fatalities; Russian authorities confirm the fire has been liquidated.
Attrition of Russian Strategic Air Defense (13:48, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, MEDIUM): Ukrainian SSO claims to have successfully struck Russian S-400 "Triumph" and Pantsir-S1 systems in Sofiivka, Crimea, using thermal-guided munitions.
Logistics Hub Destruction in Kursk (14:02, 80th Air Assault Bde, MEDIUM): Ukrainian 80th Air Assault Brigade confirmed the destruction of a large Russian logistics warehouse in Kursk Oblast containing ammunition, drones, and light vehicles via attack UAVs.
Kyiv Infrastructure Recovery (13:37, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): Partial restoration of electric transport (trolleybuses/trams) is scheduled for Kyiv’s Right Bank on Feb 26 after a 45-day suspension due to energy grid instability.
Escalated Combat Intensity (14:06, GenStaff UA, MEDIUM): Ukrainian General Staff reports 115 combat engagements over the current reporting period across all operational sectors.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kursk/Smolensk/Rear):
Kinetic Activity: Significant Ukrainian deep-strike activity targeting Russian logistics and industrial production. The strike on the "Dorogobuzh" plant (13:38) and the Kursk logistics warehouse (14:02) indicates a coordinated effort to disrupt the Russian "Sustenance" phase of operations.
Weather (Kharkiv/Vovchansk): 1.1°C, fog (Code 45), 98% cloud cover. Visibility is minimal, which continues to mask low-altitude UAV ingress but hinders optical ISR for both sides.
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Intensity: Positional fighting remains high with 115 total frontline clashes reported (14:06). Footage from snowy combat zones indicates high-casualty close-quarters engagements (13:43).
Weather (Svatove/Pokrovsk): 2.3°C to 3.5°C, fog/overcast. Ground remains saturated; light snow/rain forecast (95-100% probability) will further degrade off-road mobility.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson/Crimea):
Air Activity: Russian forces have launched a new wave of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) targeting the Zaporizhzhia region (13:54).
Strategic Attrition: The SSO strike on S-400 and Pantsir systems in Crimea (13:48) indicates a continued effort to degrade the Russian A2/AD (Anti-Access/Area Denial) bubble over the Black Sea.
Weather (Orikhiv/Kherson): 4.6°C to 6.4°C, overcast. Wind speeds reaching 3.5 m/s. High humidity and forecasted rain (75%) maintain "Rasputitsa" conditions.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Course of Action: Continued reliance on KAB strikes to compensate for slowed ground maneuver. Russia is increasingly targeting civilian/industrial sites in its own rear to frame UA strikes as "terrorism" (13:38).
Logistics Status: Russian energy revenues have reportedly declined by 27% year-on-year (13:45), potentially impacting long-term sustainment of high-intensity operations.
Propaganda Adaptations: Russian channels are recirculating claims of neutralized foreign mercenaries (e.g., French national Jean-Baptiste Silles) from late 2025 to bolster the "foreign fighter" narrative (14:01, UNCONFIRMED/LOW).
Friendly activity (UAF)
C2 & Logistics Integrity: The arrest of the Air Force Logistics Commander (13:46) represents a significant disruption to the command structure but may lead to a necessary audit of airfield fortification projects.
Technical Success: Effective use of attack UAVs by the 80th Air Assault Brigade and SSO thermal-guided strikes demonstrates high proficiency in precision deep-rear operations.
Infrastructure: Gradual restoration of Kyiv's electric transport (13:37) indicates an improvement in the stability of the national power grid despite ongoing strikes.
Information environment / disinformation
Economic Narratives: Pro-Russian channels are weaponizing the World Bank RDNA5 report, framing the $587.7bn reconstruction cost as a catalyst for Western corruption (13:56).
Normalization Efforts: TASS is highlighting the registration of US trademarks (Victoria's Secret) in Russia (13:44) to project a sense of economic "business as usual" despite sanctions.
Hybrid Pressure: Continued amplification of PM Orbán's troop deployments near energy sites (13:52) aims to maintain friction between Ukraine and its western neighbors.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued KAB bombardment of Zaporizhzhia and Sumy. Deteriorating weather (snow/rain/fog) will favor static defensive positions and short-range drone operations over mechanized movement.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): Rapid Russian exploitation of any C2 gaps caused by the detention of Air Force logistics leadership, specifically targeting airfield infrastructure while command structures are in flux.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[C2 IMPACT]: Assess the immediate impact of the arrest of the Air Force Logistics Commander on the ongoing construction of hardened airfield shelters.
[BDA]: Obtain satellite or secondary confirmation of the S-400/Pantsir-S1 strikes in Sofiivka to verify the level of degradation to the Crimean air defense network.
[LOGISTICS]: Monitor for signs of ammunition shortages in the Kursk sector following the 80th Brigade's successful warehouse strike.
[WEATHER]: Track river levels in the Northern/Eastern sectors as "rising water" warnings (13:54) suggest potential for localized flooding, which would further restrict logistics to primary road networks.
