Active Combat in Stepnohirsk (09:53, Operatyvnyi ZSU, HIGH): Ukraine's GUR Special Unit "Artan" confirmed ongoing offensive actions and armored maneuvers in the Stepnohirsk area (Zaporizhzhia). Video evidence shows active targeting of Russian positions.
Casualty Increase in Smolensk Strike (09:44, Basurin/Governor, HIGH): Fatalities at the "Dorogobuzh" mineral fertilizer plant strike have risen to 4 dead and 10 injured. Russian sources (09:56, Alex Parker) claim the strike involved a "Flamingo" missile (UNCONFIRMED; LOW CONFIDENCE).
Counter-Intelligence Successes (09:45/10:04, SBU/RBK-UA, HIGH): The SBU detained a 59-year-old entrepreneur in Kyiv acting as an FSB agent targeting defense plants. Separately, a Kharkiv woman was detained for a "bait" plot in Lviv where she allegedly lured police into remote-detonated explosive traps.
New UAV Ingress toward Kharkiv (09:41, AFU Air Force, HIGH): One or more "Shahed" type UAVs detected entering Kharkiv airspace from the northeast.
High-Level Diplomatic Engagement (09:52, Operatsiya Z, MEDIUM): Defense Minister Umerov is scheduled to meet with a US delegation (Witkoff, Kushner, Bessent) on February 26.
Russian Claims of Attrition in Dnipropetrovsk (09:43, Colonelcassad, LOW): Russian "Vostok" Grouping claims "massive destruction" of AFU units in Dnipropetrovsk region via drone-corrected strikes. UNCONFIRMED; LOW CONFIDENCE; likely Russian information operation to exaggerate KAB strike efficacy.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Sumy/Kursk):
Tactical Threat: A northeast-to-southwest UAV flight path is active, specifically targeting Kharkiv city.
Rear Security: SBU activity remains high following the detection of IED plots involving residents recruited from this sector.
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Donetsk Front: Evidence from Kostiantynivka shows widespread structural destruction in winter conditions (10:02). In the Shevchenko area, the Russian "Sparta" battalion documented the destruction of a UAF pickup truck (10:04), indicating persistent tactical FPV/ATGM threats against "last-mile" logistics.
Weather: Pokrovsk: 2.9°C, 100% cloud cover. Heavy rain (7.0mm) forecast today will rapidly accelerate the "Rasputitsa" (mud) phase.
Stepnohirsk: Ukrainian Special Forces (GUR) have transitioned from positional defense to "active combat work," including armored assaults. This suggests a localized effort to disrupt Russian lines of control near the Kakhovka Reservoir.
Zaporizhzhia City: Air raid sirens cleared as of 10:02, though missile threats persist for the wider oblast.
Weather: Orikhiv: 3.6°C, overcast. Wind 2.4 m/s. Soil saturation is reaching critical levels for heavy vehicle movement.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptation: Russian recruitment is utilizing deceptive advertisements on platforms like Avito, using the term "peacemaker" (09:57) to lure contract soldiers into frontline roles in the LNR/DNR.
Strike Capability: Russian "Vostok" Grouping is prioritizing the use of drone-corrected strikes against AFU vehicle concentrations in the Dnipropetrovsk rear, likely to support the expanded KAB bombardment reported earlier.
Industrial Vulnerability: The Smolensk strike highlights a persistent gap in Russian mid-range air defense for critical chemical/fertilizer infrastructure, which has direct dual-use applications for explosives and logistics.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Special Operations: GUR "Artan" unit demonstrated high proficiency in integrated armored/infantry maneuvers in the Stepnohirsk sector.
Internal Security: Successful neutralization of an FSB cell in Kyiv targeting defense enterprises indicates a robust domestic counter-intelligence posture.
Logistics/Fundraising: Heavy attrition of soft-skinned vehicles (pickups) continues to be a bottleneck, as evidenced by emergency fundraising for the 77th Air Assault Brigade (10:06).
Information environment / disinformation
Hardening of RU Information Space: Russian courts have fined Telegram (7M rubles) for failing to remove restricted content (09:40). This follows earlier fines against Google/VPNs, indicating a coordinated crackdown on non-state-controlled information channels.
Russian Counter-Narratives: Pro-Russian channels are amplifying claims of "massive AFU destruction" (09:43) and using labels like "foreign agent" against even pro-regime figures (Markov, 09:47) to enforce absolute ideological discipline.
Satirical Morale Ops: Ukrainian civil society (Sternenko/Dodo Socks) continues to utilize satirical "survival" narratives for military fundraising, maintaining high engagement despite the winter stalemate (10:00).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued UAV and KAB strikes on Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk. The onset of heavy rain (5-7mm) in the Donetsk/Luhansk sectors will likely stall mechanized movements, shifting the focus to localized infantry raids and FPV drone exchanges.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): Coordinated Russian missile/UAV strikes targeting the energy infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia or Kharkiv during the current high-cloud, low-visibility window.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TACTICAL]: Confirm the specific nature and intent of GUR "Artan" operations in Stepnohirsk—is this a reconnaissance-in-force or a sustained effort to seize ground?
[TECHNICAL]: Verify the existence and deployment of the "Flamingo" missile system mentioned in the Smolensk strike.
[OPERATIONAL]: Assess the scale of Russian "Vostok" Grouping operations in the Dnipropetrovsk direction; determine if "massive destruction" claims correspond to any significant loss of UAF reserve equipment.
[HUMINT]: Monitor Russian recruitment trends following the exposure of "peacemaker" contract deceptions to gauge impact on manpower replenishment.
