New Russian Loitering Munition (07:38, Poddubny, MEDIUM): Kalashnikov Concern has reportedly developed the "KUB-10ME," a tactical loitering munition with a claimed range exceeding 100 km.
Lithuanian Military Aid (07:56, Дневник Десантника, HIGH): Lithuania committed a batch of 30 RBS-70 missiles and signed an agreement for joint weapons production with Ukraine, reserving €223 million in aid for 2026.
UAF Success in Pokrovsk Sector (07:53, 46th Airmobile Brigade, HIGH): The Ukrainian 46th Airmobile Brigade released footage confirming the destruction of a tank, vehicles, and infantry over the past week.
Maritime UAV Threat (07:52, Air Force AFU, HIGH): Russian UAVs were detected entering Ukrainian airspace from the Black Sea, heading toward Ochakiv.
Legal Action on Energy Infrastructure (08:00, General Prosecutor's Office, HIGH): Ukraine submitted materials to the ICC regarding Russian strikes on energy infrastructure (July 2025–Feb 2026), documenting 11 civilian deaths and 68 injuries.
Potential Radiation False-Flag (07:59, РБК-Україна, MEDIUM): ISW warns that Russia may be preparing a "radiation incident" to blame on Ukraine, following recent escalatory rhetoric.
Tactical Situation: Following earlier reports of Russian MLRS activity in Sumy, no new kinetic ground updates. Russian forces continue to exploit low-visibility weather for UAV ingress.
Tactical Status: Heavy fog in the Orikhiv sector severely limits visibility (less than 1km).
Force Disposition: Russian 49th Combined Arms Army (Dnepr Group) is utilizing the "Kurier" tracked ground robot for field communications, likely to mitigate signal interference or physical risk to signalmen (08:01, MoD RU).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Technological Adaptation: The introduction of the KUB-10ME (100km+ range) suggests an intent to strike deeper into Ukrainian tactical and operational rears, potentially targeting logistics hubs previously considered out of loitering munition range.
C2 Resilience: The deployment of "Kurier" ground robots for communication indicates a Russian effort to automate and protect frontline C2 nodes against FPV and artillery strikes.
Information Ops: Pro-Russian sources are amplifying claims of a 10-day power/water blackout in Odesa to incite civil unrest (07:52, Операция Z). This is UNCONFIRMED and likely exaggerated for psychological effect.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: Continued monitoring of UAV threats from the Black Sea (Ochakiv direction).
Logistics/Legal: The addition of "Forced displacement abroad" to the Register of Damages via the Diia portal (08:00, Zaporizhzhia OVA) streamlines long-term legal compensation processes for refugees.
Counter-ISR: UAF continues to engage Russian communication infrastructure in the Toretsk/Pokrovsk sectors despite heavy weather.
Information environment / disinformation
Strategic Signaling: Russian media is heavily amplifying Donald Trump’s "State of the Union" speech (Feb 24), specifically his claims that the war would not have occurred under his leadership and that "free aid" has ceased (07:45, ASTRA).
Diplomatic Pressure: TASS is circulating claims from The Daily Telegraph suggesting any post-conflict Western troop presence in Ukraine would require Russian approval (07:53, ТАСС)—a narrative aimed at asserting Russian veto power over Ukrainian sovereignty.
Budanov Narrative: The repeat of HUR Chief Budanov’s alleged comments regarding "decision-making centers" (08:07, Poddubny) suggests Russian mil-bloggers are tracking this as a potential informal de-escalation signal or a strategic trap.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued Russian UAV probes from the Black Sea toward Mykolaiv/Odesa oblasts, utilizing the ongoing overcast conditions to evade visual detection.
Tactical Focus: In the Pokrovsk direction, expect increased use of thermal-equipped loitering munitions (Lancet/KUB) as ground-level visibility remains poor during the rain/drizzle.
Weather Impact: Worsening fog in the South (Orikhiv) will likely freeze ground movement, shifting combat almost entirely to indirect fire and short-range drone engagements.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TACTICAL]: Confirm the operational deployment of KUB-10ME loitering munitions; identify launch platforms and specific sectors of use.
[HUMINT/SIGINT]: Verify the actual status of utility infrastructure in Odesa to counter "10-day blackout" narratives.
[TECHNICAL]: Analyze the "Kurier" communication robot's frequency range to assess susceptibility to electronic warfare (EW) jamming.
[STRATEGIC]: Monitor for any Russian movements near nuclear or hazardous chemical sites following the ISW warning of a "radiation incident" provocation.
