Situation Report

Situation Update (02:37 UTC, Feb 25, 2026)

Key updates since last sitrep

• Ongoing KAB Strikes (02:33, AFU Air Force, HIGH): Confirmed Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) launches targeting Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, continuing the saturation pattern noted in previous reports.
• Widespread Air Alerts (02:19, RBC-Ukraine, HIGH): Air raid sirens active across Eastern and Southern Ukraine, correlating with the ongoing KAB and UAV activity.
• Hybrid Threat Intelligence (02:10, RBC-Ukraine, MEDIUM): Intelligence reports indicate the Kremlin is utilizing a network of "Trojan horse" real estate assets (warehouses/houses) across 12+ European countries to facilitate coordinated sabotage operations.
• Unconfirmed Armor Losses (02:12, Colonelcassad, LOW): Russian sources claim the destruction of one M-113 and one FV-103 Spartan armored personnel carrier via drone strikes in the Kostiantynivka area.
• Alleged Domestic Incident/Disinformation (02:20, НгП раZVедка, LOW): Russian-aligned channels are circulating low-quality footage alleging UAF Territorial Recruitment Center (TCC) personnel fatally shot a civilian in Kryvyi Rih. This is assessed as a high-probability information operation designed to incite domestic unrest.

Operational picture (by sector)

1. Northern/Eastern Sector (Kharkiv/Luhansk):

• Weather (02:30 UTC): Kharkiv/Vovchansk is 0.1°C with light snow; Luhansk/Svatove is 1.1°C with light rain.
• Tactical Environment: 100% cloud cover and ongoing precipitation (snow/rain) continue to degrade visual ISR. No significant change in ground dispositions reported in the last 30 minutes.

2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk):

• Weather (02:30 UTC): Pokrovsk is 2.0°C with light rain.
• Tactical Activity: Kostiantynivka is identified as an active engagement zone for Russian loitering munitions/drones. The expansion of KAB strikes into Dnipropetrovsk indicates the enemy is targeting deeper logistics hubs beyond the immediate tactical depth of the Donetsk frontline.

3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson/Mykolaiv):

• Weather (02:30 UTC): Orikhiv is 1.6°C (overcast); Kherson is 0.6°C (overcast).
• Tactical Activity: Zaporizhzhia OVA issued an immediate alert at 02:25, likely in response to the multi-vector UAV ingress or incoming ballistic/KAB threats. Ground conditions remain saturated (Rasputitsa), favoring static defense and standoff engagements.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

• Tactical Course of Action: The enemy is maintaining a high tempo of standoff strikes (KAB/UAV) to compensate for limited ground maneuverability caused by 0-2°C temperatures and rain/snow. The focus remains on Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk.
• Hybrid Operations: The identification of "Trojan horse" assets in Europe suggests a shift toward targeting Western supply lines at the source or storage points to disrupt the flow of aid before it reaches the theater.
• Information Warfare: The rapid dissemination of the "Kryvyi Rih shooting" video indicates a prepared narrative to exploit mobilization tensions within Ukraine.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Air Defense Posture: High-readiness state maintained across the Eastern and Southern Air Commands. Real-time tracking of KAB-capable aircraft and UAV swarms is prioritized.
• Tactical Defense: Units in the Kostiantynivka sector are facing increased FPV/loitering munition pressure on armored assets.

Information environment / disinformation

• Sabotage Narrative: Ukrainian media is highlighting Russian sabotage networks in Europe to alert international partners and secure rear-area logistics.
• Anti-Mobilization Agitation: Russian propaganda channels are actively promoting narratives of TCC violence (02:20) to degrade civilian morale and complicate recruitment efforts.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

• Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued KAB strikes on Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk to suppress C2 and logistics. UAV groups will likely continue to probe air defenses in Mykolaiv and Odesa.
• Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated surge in sabotage activity within European logistical hubs synchronized with a large-scale missile/UAV strike to disrupt the arrival of critical munitions.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. [OPERATIONAL]: Verification of the "Trojan horse" real estate locations to assess immediate risks to UAF supply chains in Europe.
2. [TACTICAL]: Geolocation and verification of the alleged armor losses in Kostiantynivka (02:12) to determine if there is a local gap in short-range AD/EW.
3. [TECHNICAL]: Forensic analysis of the Kryvyi Rih video (02:20) to confirm it as a staged or misattributed incident for counter-disinformation messaging.