KAB Strikes on Kharkiv (22:25, Air Force UA, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation has launched guided aerial bombs (KABs) targeting the Kharkiv region.
UAV Incursion (22:19, Air Force UA, HIGH): A Russian UAV was detected near Malynivka, Kharkiv region, on a flight path toward Kharkiv city.
Air Alert Termination (22:26, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): The air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been cleared following earlier tactical activity.
Diplomatic Information Operation (22:08, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH): Prince Harry released a video message featuring visits with wounded Ukrainian veterans to mark the four-year anniversary of the invasion.
Leadership Messaging (22:12, РБК-Україна, HIGH): President Zelenskyy publicly addressed Russian political objectives, stating that Moscow’s goal remains installing a puppet leader in Kyiv.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern/Northeastern Sector (Kharkiv/Sumy):
Tactical Environment: Weather in Vovchansk (0.4°C) is characterized by light snow and 100% cloud cover. These conditions provide visual masking for low-altitude UAV operations but complicate high-altitude optical ISR.
Aerial Activity: The sector is currently under active threat from both loitering munitions (near Malynivka) and KAB strikes. The vector toward Kharkiv city indicates a continued Russian effort to strike urban infrastructure or staging areas.
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Svatove/Pokrovsk: Current weather shows light rain (0.9°C to 1.8°C) with 100% cloud cover. Ground saturation (0.1–0.2 mm precip) continues to support the onset of Rasputitsa, limiting heavy vehicle maneuverability to established paved routes.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Zaporizhzhia: Despite the clearance of the air alert at 22:26, the region remains under heavy fog (Code 45, 1.8°C) with visibility significantly degraded (94% cloud cover).
Kherson: Conditions are overcast (0.4°C) with no new kinetic activity reported since the previous sitrep.
4. Rear Areas / Russian Domestic:
Socio-Economic Signaling: (22:23, ТАСС, MEDIUM) Russian Deputy Nilov has proposed expanding federal utility subsidies (ЖКУ) for pensioners and large families. This is assessed as a domestic stabilization measure to mitigate the economic impact of the prolonged conflict.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation Adaptability: Russian tactical aviation continues to utilize KABs despite 100% cloud cover in the Kharkiv sector, indicating a reliance on GPS/GLONASS-guided munitions that are not dependent on visual targeting.
UAV Penetration: The movement of a UAV toward Kharkiv city (22:19) suggests a coordinated strike package involving both slow-moving loitering munitions and high-speed KABs to saturate local air defenses.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Posture: UAF remains in a high state of readiness in the Kharkiv sector following confirmed KAB launches and UAV detections.
Strategic Communication: President Zelenskyy’s comments (22:12) serve to reinforce domestic resolve and clarify the high stakes of the conflict on the invasion anniversary.
Information environment / disinformation
International Support: Video messages from high-profile figures (Prince Harry) are being used to maintain Western public interest and counter "Ukraine fatigue" narratives on the four-year anniversary.
Internal Russian Narrative: The promotion of utility subsidies by Russian state media (TASS) suggests an effort to frame the "Special Military Operation" period as one where the state remains capable of providing social welfare, likely to counter internal discontent.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued KAB and UAV strikes in the Kharkiv sector. Persistent fog in the Zaporizhzhia/Orikhiv sector will likely prevent the use of traditional aviation but may facilitate localized Russian sabotage and reconnaissance group (DRG) movements or Ukrainian drone interdiction at very low altitudes.
MDCOA: Russia utilizes the current cloud base and precipitation in the Kharkiv sector to mask a larger-scale UAV swarm synchronized with KAB strikes to overwhelm the regional power grid or C2 nodes.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TACTICAL]: Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for any impacts resulting from the 22:25 KAB launches in Kharkiv.
[OPERATIONAL]: Confirmation of UAV type detected near Malynivka (e.g., Shahed-series vs. Orlan-series) to determine if this is a reconnaissance or strike mission.
[WEATHER]: Precise visibility measurements in the Stepnohirsk – Novoayakovlivka corridor to assess the feasibility of mechanized movement under fog cover.
