Neutralization of Mykolaiv UAV (21:17, Николаевский Ванёк, HIGH): The loitering "Shahed" type drone over central Mykolaiv has been engaged and neutralized ("отработали") by local air defense or mobile fire groups.
New UAV Ingress - Sumy Axis (21:08, Air Force AFU, HIGH): A new group of UAVs has been detected in northern Sumy Oblast, moving on a southern heading.
Expanded UAV Maneuvers - Kharkiv/Poltava (21:29, Air Force AFU, HIGH): Russian UAVs are transiting Kharkiv Oblast via the Kolomak area, tracking toward Poltava Oblast.
Central Ukraine UAV Activity (21:27, Air Force AFU, HIGH): A UAV has been identified in northern Cherkasy Oblast, moving on a south-western course.
Reported Russian Border Build-up (21:29, ЦАПЛІЄНКО/KRO-NCRV, MEDIUM): Investigative reports cite construction/expansion at 94 Russian military sites near the European border, allegedly involving tactical nuclear infrastructure and additional air defense.
Alleged TCC Confrontation (21:06, Операция Z, LOW/UNCONFIRMED): Pro-Russian sources are circulating low-quality footage claiming a fatal shooting by mobilization officials in Kryvyi Rih. This is currently uncorroborated and assessed as a potential disinformation operation.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern/Northeastern Sector (Sumy/Kharkiv):
Sumy: Continuous pressure via UAVs entering from the north (21:08).
Kharkiv: UAVs are utilizing the corridor near Kolomak to penetrate toward Poltava (21:29).
Weather: Vovchansk (0.4°C) and Svatove (0.7°C) remain under 100% cloud cover with light snow (code 71). Low visibility persists, favoring low-altitude UAV ingress.
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Pokrovsk/Donetsk: Current conditions are 1.3°C with light rain (code 61). Mud levels are likely increasing, restricting heavy vehicle movement to established road networks.
Tactical Activity: Pro-Russian "military correspondent" footage (21:11) shows BMP movements in the Donetsk/Makiivka area, suggesting continued local repositioning despite the weather.
Mykolaiv: Threat from the lone loitering UAV has been neutralized (21:17).
Zaporizhzhia: Light rain (2.3°C) continues in Orikhiv. Expansion of KAB strikes reported in previous sitrep remains the primary tactical concern for rear logistics.
4. Central Sector (Cherkasy/Poltava):
Cherkasy: New UAV threat identified in the northern part of the oblast, tracking southwest (21:27).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
UAV Infiltration: Russian forces are maintaining a multi-pronged UAV effort, with simultaneous tracks in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Cherkasy. The shift from the neutralized Mykolaiv drone to fresh ingress in the north and center suggests a "wave" tactic intended to exhaust air defense response times.
Infrastructure Build-up: Reports of expanded military infrastructure near European borders (94 sites) indicate a long-term Russian posture adjustment, possibly including tactical nuclear storage facilities to increase regional signaling.
Information Operations: The TASS report (21:30) featuring Nebenzya’s claims regarding European lack of support for negotiations, combined with the Kryvyi Rih shooting claim, indicates a coordinated effort to frame Ukraine and its allies as the aggressors while fomenting internal Ukrainian unrest.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: Effective response in the southern sector with the successful engagement of the Mykolaiv drone.
Civilian Support: Continued high levels of horizontal social coordination, evidenced by ongoing small-unit fundraising efforts (21:07).
Information environment / disinformation
Mobilization Narratives: The claim of a shooting in Kryvyi Rih by TCC members (21:06) follows a pattern of Russian "black" propaganda aimed at disrupting Ukrainian mobilization efforts. CONFIDENCE: LOW.
Tech/Cyber Narratives: Russian sources are amplifying claims of a hack involving Discord and OpenAI (21:33), likely to seed distrust in Western communication and AI platforms.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: UAVs currently over Kharkiv and Cherkasy will likely target energy or logistics infrastructure in Poltava and central Ukraine within the next 2-4 hours.
MDCOA: Russia utilizes the reported build-up of tactical aviation and the distraction of UAV swarms to launch a concentrated KAB or missile strike on Sumy/Kharkiv C2 nodes under cover of the current 100% cloud ceiling.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TACTICAL]: Confirm the status and specific targets of the UAV group transiting toward Poltava.
[OPERATIONAL]: Verify the authenticity of the Kryvyi Rih video through local police or OSINT geolocation to debunk or confirm the incident.
[STRATEGIC]: Obtain satellite imagery or SIGINT corroboration for the "94 sites" mentioned in the Dutch investigative report to assess the reality of tactical nuclear infrastructure expansion.
