UNGA Peace Resolution Adopted with US Abstention (17:29, Оперативний ЗСУ; 17:34, ЦАПЛІЕНКО; 17:35, Операция Z, HIGH): UN General Assembly adopted Resolution A/ES-11/L.17 ("Support for lasting peace in Ukraine") with 107 votes in favor, 12 against, and 51 abstentions. Notably, sources report the United States was among the 51 abstentions.
Concentrated UAV Incursion Wave (17:10-17:21, Повітряні Сили ЗСУ, HIGH): A coordinated wave of Shahed-type UAVs is currently active across Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts. Vectors include incursions from Belgorod (RU), eastern approaches toward Kharkiv/Chuhuiv, and a northern route toward the Shostka industrial hub.
Counter-Intelligence Success: Starlink Smuggling (17:14, Шеф Hayabusa, HIGH): The SBU detained two Ukrainian citizens for registering Starlink terminals to be used by Russian occupation forces; suspects face potential life imprisonment.
Rear-Area Lancet Strike (17:32, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): A Russian Lancet loitering munition reportedly struck a UAF armored vehicle in Novoaleksandrovka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This indicates sustained Russian ISR/strike capability deep behind the primary line of contact. (UNCONFIRMED)
High-Intensity Engagement near Belitske (17:09, WarGonzo, MEDIUM): Russian "Storm" units supported by D-30 artillery are reportedly attempting to breach UAF defenses approximately 4km from Belitske (Donetsk sector).
Enhanced Energy Cooperation with Croatia (17:36, Zelenskiy / Official, HIGH): President Zelenskyy met with Croatian PM Plenković; Croatia confirmed a new defense package and the provision of specialized equipment for Ukrainian energy restoration.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern/Northeastern Sector (Kharkiv/Sumy):
UAV Activity: Significant concentration of loitering munitions. Current targets/vectors: Shostka (Sumy), Vilshany, Peresichne, Chuhuiv, and Kharkiv city.
Weather: Vovchansk (0.6°C, light snow, 100% cloud cover) and Svatove (0.6°C, light snow). Low visibility and icing continue to degrade optical ISR, but the influx of UAVs suggests the enemy is utilizing low-altitude navigation to bypass weather-stalled aviation.
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Belitske/Kostiantynivka: Increased Russian pressure. Use of "Storm" detachments and D-30 artillery near Belitske indicates a localized offensive push.
Weather: Pokrovsk (0.8°C, light rain, 100% cloud cover). Ground conditions remain muddy, restricting heavy tracked maneuver to improved road networks.
Mykolaiv Vector: UAVs detected transiting southern Mykolaiv Oblast toward the city (17:23, Air Force).
Rear Area Threat: The strike in Dnipropetrovsk (Novoaleksandrovka) underscores the vulnerability of logistics hubs to loitering munitions even outside the immediate tactical zone.
Weather: Orikhiv (3.2°C, light rain) and Kherson (3.7°C, overcast). Persistent rain is accelerating the "Rasputitsa" (mud season), likely stalling major mechanized movements.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Changes: The use of Lancet munitions in Dnipropetrovsk suggests the Russian "reconnaissance-strike loop" is functioning at depths of 30-50km, likely utilizing high-altitude spotter drones that remain above the current low cloud ceiling or exploit gaps in local AD.
Hybrid Operations: Russian state media (TASS) and affiliated channels are escalating rhetoric against UK leadership (Keir Starmer), accusing the UK of provoking nuclear conflict to distract from internal political issues.
Logistics: Continued efforts to acquire Western technology (Starlink) via illicit civilian registration highlight a critical dependency on non-state satellite communications for frontline C2.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Counter-Diversion: Effective SBU operations are closing critical gaps in technical security (Starlink illicit use).
Diplomatic/Strategic Sustainment: Engagement with Croatia secures specialized energy infrastructure parts, vital for maintaining grid stability against the ongoing UAV campaign targeting the energy sector.
Information environment / disinformation
UNGA Resolution Framing: Russian-aligned channels are highlighting the US abstention on the UN peace resolution as evidence of fracturing Western support (17:34, 17:35).
Economic Disinformation: Former PM Azarov (via RU channels) is claiming Ukraine is diverting civilian electricity specifically for drone production to incite domestic unrest over power outages (17:20).
Militarization of AI: Reports that Musk’s xAI (Grok) will be integrated into US military "secret systems" are being monitored by RU mil-bloggers (Colonelcassad, 17:12) as a future escalation factor.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely (MLCOA): Continued UAV strikes targeting Shostka (industrial/energy) and Mykolaiv (logistics). Fog and icing in the Kharkiv sector will reach peak intensity by 0600Z Feb 25, likely leading to a temporary lull in fixed-wing tactical aviation but an increase in small-group infantry probes under low visibility.
Most Dangerous (MDCOA): A coordinated multi-vector UAV strike on Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia energy hubs to exploit the current "Rasputitsa" period when UAF ground mobility is most constrained.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[STRATEGIC]: Verification of the official US position and reasoning for the reported abstention at the UNGA to assess shifts in diplomatic support.
[TACTICAL]: Assessment of the impact of the Lancet strike in Novoaleksandrovka; determine if the strike successfully neutralized high-value mobile assets.
[TECHNICAL]: Monitoring the proliferation of CM-302 anti-ship missiles to Iran (as reported by Reuters/RU media) for potential technology transfer or operational parallels in the Black Sea theater.
