UAF ATACMS Strike on RU 5th Army CP (12:46, Tsaplienko/GenStaff, HIGH): Ukrainian forces executed a precision strike using ATACMS ballistic missiles against the command post of the 5th Combined Arms Army (VSRF) in occupied Novopetrykivka, Donetsk region.
Factory-to-Front Ballistic Pipeline (12:43, Tsaplienko/Advisor "Flash", MEDIUM): Technical analysis of recent ballistic wreckage indicates Russian missiles are being manufactured in late 2025/early 2026 and deployed immediately, suggesting minimal stockpiles and reliance on current production.
Heavy Aerial Bombardment (12:45, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Russian forces reportedly utilized high-yield FAB-3000 bombs against the UAF 100th Mechanized Brigade and a dam near Kostiantynivka.
Russian Telegram Ban Threat (13:04, TASS, MEDIUM): A Russian State Duma official stated Telegram may be designated an "extremist organization" within 45-90 days if it fails to cooperate with security services, potentially disrupting Russian volunteer C2 networks.
Active Air Threat in Sumy (12:49-13:02, AFU Air Force, HIGH): Guided aerial bombs (KABs) and loitering munitions (course toward Bilopillya) are currently active in the Sumy sector.
UAF Strike in Russia (13:02, Tsaplienko, HIGH): 248th Battalion (129th Bde) "Ravens" unit conducted UAV strikes against Russian logistics in Novopetrovka, Belgorod region.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Sumy):
Aerial Activity: Russian tactical aviation launched KABs toward Sumy at 12:49. By 13:02, loitering munitions (UAVs) were detected over eastern Sumy on a heading toward Bilopillya.
Cross-Border Engagement: UAF "Ravens" unit (248th Bn) targeted logistics in Novopetrovka, Russia (13:02).
Weather (Kharkiv/Vovchansk): 0.7°C, light snow, 100% cloud cover. Conditions continue to facilitate low-altitude UAV ingress while obscuring ground movements from high-altitude ISR.
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Precision Decapitation Strike: The UAF strike on the 5th Army CP in Novopetrykivka (12:46) indicates successful intelligence on high-value Russian C2 nodes.
High-Yield Ordnance: The use of FAB-3000 near Kostiantynivka (12:45) targets both personnel (100th Bde) and critical infrastructure (dam). Damage to the dam could affect local hydrology and movement corridors.
Force Disposition: Russian 33rd Guards Regiment is confirmed active in the "Dobropillya Salient" area (12:50).
Weather (Pokrovsk/Luhansk): 0.9°C to 3.3°C, light snow/rain, 100% cloud. High precipitation (5.3mm forecast) is exacerbating soil saturation.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Strategic Context: President Zelenskyy is hosting the "Coalition of the Willing" summit in Kyiv (12:40), signaling continued international coordination.
Weather (Orikhiv/Kherson): 4.7°C to 6.7°C, light rain. 100% probability of rain in Kherson today will likely halt all off-road mechanized operations by nightfall.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action - Deep Strikes: The immediate deployment of "fresh" ballistic missiles (12:43) suggests Russia is prioritizing current strike tempo over the replenishment of strategic reserves.
Course of Action - Hybrid/Domestic: The threat to ban Telegram (13:04) represents a significant shift in Russian internal policy. If enacted, this will severely degrade the "Mil-Blogger" information ecosystem and the informal volunteer logistics networks that Russian frontline units rely on.
Capability Assessment: The use of FAB-3000 indicates a continued Russian reliance on brute-force aerial demolition to overcome prepared Ukrainian defensive positions and infrastructure.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Counter-Command Operations: The strike on the 5th Army CP demonstrates UAF capability to process high-priority targeting data and strike with long-range precision assets (ATACMS) in occupied territory.
Domestic Security: The Prosecutor General has advanced the treason case against a former OPZZh deputy (13:00), and President Zelenskyy signed a decree sanctioning "Russian World" ideologues (12:56), continuing the internal purge of pro-Russian influence.
Civil-Military Relations: Coordination Headquarters for POWs has launched a "Zoo-therapy" program for children of missing/captured defenders (12:41), focusing on domestic resilience.
Information environment / disinformation
Russian Counter-Narrative: Pro-Russian channels (dikGAZETE) are attempting to frame UAF logistics strikes as "media-driven sabotage" to distract from frontline failures (12:55).
Anniversary Messaging: Both sides are utilizing the Feb 24 anniversary for psychological operations. Ukraine is highlighting international support (Sir Ian McKellen, 12:56; Coalition Summit, 12:40), while Russia is releasing patriotic recruitment/SMO anniversary videos (13:02).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued KAB and UAV pressure on Sumy and Kharkiv. UAF will likely look for further opportunities to strike C2 or logistics nodes using high-precision assets while Russian forces are fixed by weather conditions.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A multi-vector missile strike on Kyiv targeting the summit of international leaders, utilizing the "factory-fresh" ballistic missiles identified today.
Environmental Impact: "Rasputitsa" (mud) conditions will reach high intensity in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia sectors as rain continues through the evening, effectively anchoring heavy armor to paved roads.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TACTICAL]: Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for the ATACMS strike on the 5th Army CP in Novopetrykivka.
[INFRASTRUCTURE]: Structural status of the dam near Kostiantynivka following the FAB-3000 strike; assess potential flood risks to UAF positions.
[TECHNICAL]: Confirm the specific manufacturing plants for the 2025/2026-dated ballistic missiles to identify potential targets for future deep-strike operations.
