Deep Strike on Russian Energy Infrastructure (08:12, CyberBoroshno, HIGH): A large-scale fire is confirmed at the Kaleykyno Oil Storage Depot (NPS) in Russia. Visual evidence shows significant smoke plumes rising from the tank farm; the facility is reportedly still burning.
UK Sanctions Expansion (08:12, 08:23, TASS, HIGH): On the 4th anniversary of the invasion, the UK has added 297 positions to its Russia sanctions list, including 240 legal entities, 9 banks, 50 vessels, and 7 individuals.
Escalation of "Nuclear Disinformation" (08:24, 08:25, TASS, HIGH): The Russian Federation Council (Senate) has formally called on the UN Security Council and IAEA to "investigate" alleged UK/French plans to provide nuclear weapons to Ukraine. This indicates a transition from media propaganda to a formal diplomatic/legal information operation.
Broadening Air Assaults (08:19, 08:34, AFU/Liveuamap, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation has expanded Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) strikes beyond the contact line to include southeastern Dnipropetrovsk region (Havrylivka, Velykomykhaylivka) and multiple settlements in Zaporizhzhia (Orikhiv, Huliaipilske).
Russian Internal Repression (08:09, 08:21, 08:22, TASS/Operativno ZSU, MEDIUM): Russian authorities have launched criminal cases against Telegram founder Pavel Durov (alleged terrorism facilitation) and Mediazona editor Dmitry Treshchanin, and arrested Gulag-Info owner Denis Soldatov. This suggests a synchronized crackdown on information platforms and dissent.
Ukrainian Strategic "Three-Point Plan" (08:10, RBK-Ukraine, MEDIUM): Defense Minister Fedorov outlined a strategic framework for victory: 1) Securing the sky, 2) Escalating land/sea/cyber attrition, and 3) Dismantling Russia’s economic capacity to fund the war.
Tactical Activity: Clashes reported near Hrafske and Kutkivka. A Russian Shahed UAV was detected in southern Kharkiv moving northwest at 08:30. In the Kupyansk direction, UAF repelled two assault attempts near Pischane (08:34).
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Weather: Pokrovsk at 1.3°C (overcast); Svatove at 0.1°C (08:30 UTC).
Tactical Activity: Intensified Russian pressure with 17 attacks recorded yesterday in the Kostiantynivka direction (Kleban-Byk, Ivanopillya, Sofiyivka). Russian tactical aviation launched fresh KAB waves toward Donetsk targets at 08:09.
Lyman/Sloviansk: Clashes continue near Drobysheve, Platonivka, and Zakitne (08:34).
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Weather: Orikhiv (3.5°C) and Kherson (2.7°C) experiencing light rain with 100% cloud cover. Ground conditions are deteriorating into "Rasputitsa" (mud).
Air Activity: Large-scale Russian airstrikes hit 16 settlements across Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk (08:34).
UAV Activity: A Russian drone changed direction toward Kushugum (south of Zaporizhzhia) at 08:26 after transiting from the southwest.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action (Strategic): Russia is utilizing its legislative bodies (Federation Council) to institutionalize the "nuclear threat" narrative. This is likely intended to create a legalistic pretext for "counter-measures" or to complicate Western security guarantees.
Course of Action (Tactical): Increased reliance on KAB strikes against rear-area logistics in Dnipropetrovsk indicates an attempt to disrupt UAF supply lines feeding the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk fronts.
Internal Security: The development of a specialized "police drone" equipped with pepper spray (08:32) suggests the Russian MVD is preparing for domestic civil unrest or tightening control over occupied territories.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Deep Attrition: Successful long-range strike on the Kaleykyno Oil Storage Depot (08:12) demonstrates continued capability to target Russian strategic energy logistics despite intensified Russian EW.
Commemorations: High-level diplomatic presence in Kyiv for the 4th-anniversary prayer service (08:08). Strategic messaging from the 46th Air Mobile Brigade and other units emphasizes four years of endurance and the shift toward long-term resistance (08:15).
Defensive Posture: Repelled 11 attacks in the Oleksandrivka direction yesterday (08:34), maintaining the integrity of the line in the Vyshneve sector.
Information environment / disinformation
"Nuclear Escalation" Campaign: Now the dominant Russian narrative. The involvement of the Russian Senate (08:24) marks a high-confidence assessment that this is a prioritized strategic deception/coercion operation.
Durov Criminal Case: If confirmed, the move against Pavel Durov (08:22) represents a significant shift in Russian policy toward Telegram, potentially signaling an intent to force greater FSB access to the platform's encrypted data or to punish the platform for perceived "uncontrolled" information flow during the war.
Regional Hybrid Ops: Russian sources (Rybar) are framing Uzbek media crackdowns as a response to "Western influence" (08:08), likely an attempt to maintain Russian influence in Central Asia by discrediting local sovereign actions.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued high-intensity KAB and Shahed strikes across Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk to exploit cloud cover and mark the invasion anniversary with kinetic "achievements."
MDCOA: A high-profile Russian "retaliatory" strike against Ukrainian government or religious sites in Kyiv, framed as a response to the Kaleykyno oil fire or "pre-empting" the fake nuclear threat.
Environmental: Ongoing rain in the south will exacerbate mud conditions, likely limiting Russian ground assaults to paved axes and increasing the importance of drone/artillery duels.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[STRATEGIC]: Determine the specific targets of the UK’s 297 new sanctions (entities/individuals) to assess the immediate impact on Russian military-industrial supply chains.
[OPERATIONAL]: Confirm the extent of damage at the Kaleykyno Oil Storage Depot; assess the impact on fuel supplies for the Russian "Zapad" or "Tsentr" force groupings.
[HYBRID]: Monitor for any movement of Russian nuclear-capable assets or changes in readiness levels following the Federation Council’s call for UN/IAEA investigations.
[TACTICAL]: Verify reports of the Russian MVD's "pepper spray drones" in occupied Ukrainian territories; evaluate the threat to civilian populations and UAF partisans.
