Aerial Assault Impact (06:45, ASTRA, HIGH): Ukrainian Air Force confirmed impacts in 16 locations following the overnight massive aerial attack (133 drones/1 Iskander-M). 111 drones were intercepted.
Deep Strike - Almetyevsk (06:48, Tsaplienko, MEDIUM): An oil pumping station in Almetyevsk (Tatarstan) has been burning for 48 hours following a Ukrainian UAV strike.
Russian Energy Infrastructure Hit (06:55, ASTRA/Governor of Belgorod, HIGH): A drone strike targeted and hit a gas distribution hub in Borisovka, Belgorod region, confirmed by local Russian officials.
Moscow Internal Security Incident (06:39, TASS, MEDIUM): An explosion damaged at least one DPS (police) vehicle near Savelyovsky railway station in Moscow; the Investigative Committee is on-site.
Diplomatic Arrival (07:03, Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH): European Council President António Costa arrived in Kyiv by train to mark the anniversary.
Tactical Aviation Activity (06:47, AFU, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation launched guided aerial bombs (KABs) targeting the Synelnykivskyi district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Sumy):
Weather: Kharkiv/Vovchansk is at -0.1°C with light snow and 98% cloud cover. Visibility is restricted for optical ISR.
Tactical Activity: Russian units in the Kupyansk direction are reportedly receiving and installing "homemade armor kits" on soft-skinned vehicles to mitigate drone threats (06:50, Dva Mayora).
Sumy: Profiles of young UAV operators from the region highlight continued high-quality human capital flow into specialized technical units (06:48, Butusov Plus).
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Weather: Pokrovsk (0.4°C) and Svatove (-0.6°C) are overcast. Ground remains frozen but will likely soften during the 2.9°C daytime high in Pokrovsk.
Force Disposition: Russian "Bars-Sarmat" units are actively conducting recruitment and public relations campaigns near the frontline, utilizing operational footage of night engagements (06:38).
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Weather: Orikhiv (2.3°C) and Kherson (2.2°C) are experiencing light rain with 100% cloud cover.
Environmental Factor: Rainfall is intensifying the "Rasputitsa" (mud) conditions. With 5.7mm to 8.9mm of precipitation forecast over the next 24 hours, off-road mobility for heavy armor is assessed as severely restricted.
4. Rear Areas (Deep Strikes):
Dnipropetrovsk: Targeted by KABs (06:47). This indicates a continued push by Russian aviation to interdict lines of communication or logistics hubs in the central rear.
Russia (Rear): Successful interdiction of energy infrastructure in Almetyevsk (Tatarstan) and Borisovka (Belgorod) demonstrates UAF's ability to maintain high-cadence deep strikes despite the intensity of the defensive aerial battle.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action: Russia is complementing its kinetic aerial campaign with internal "securitization." The criminal case against Pavel Durov (06:45) suggests a concerted effort by the FSB to exert total control over Telegram, which remains the primary C2 and information platform for both sides.
Tactical Adaptations: Russia is attempting to bridge equipment gaps through "foundational" crowdfunding, such as the 2.98M RUB appeal for the 33rd Guards Motor Rifle Regiment (07:00).
Internal Security: The Moscow police vehicle explosion (06:39) indicates potential partisan activity or high-profile internal instability within the Russian capital on the invasion anniversary.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Operations: Continued high efficacy of air defense (83% interception rate) against the 134-asset aerial package.
Strategic Communication: President Zelensky’s anniversary address emphasized the "strong peace agreement" objective and signaled to negotiators that the last four years of resistance must not be "nullified" or "devalued" (06:51, 06:57).
Offensive Capability: Maintaining long-duration fires on critical Russian energy nodes (Almetyevsk).
Information environment / disinformation
Russian Narrative: Promoting the "Bars-Sarmat" volunteer units to project an image of professional and well-equipped reserves (06:38). Russian state media is also highlighting US import duties (06:47) to suggest global economic fragmentation.
Ukrainian Narrative: High-level focus on the 4th anniversary of the "Kyiv in 3 days" failure to bolster domestic morale and emphasize Russian strategic miscalculation.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued KAB strikes on Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia frontline areas. High likelihood of celebratory/anniversary propaganda broadcasts from the Russian MoD.
MDCOA: Kinetic attempt (missile/drone) against Kyiv transport infrastructure while EC President António Costa and other high-level dignitaries are in the city.
Weather: Rain in the south will likely bring mechanized movement to a halt on unpaved sectors.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[BATTLE DAMAGE]: Identify the specific impact points of the 16 "leaked" drones from the overnight attack to assess damage to critical infrastructure.
[MOSCOW]: Clarify the nature of the explosion at the Savelyovsky station—IED, drone, or mechanical failure—to determine the level of threat to the Russian domestic security apparatus.
[ENERGY]: Monitor the Almetyevsk site for secondary explosions; the 48-hour burn duration suggests a major storage tank or high-pressure line was compromised. High-resolution commercial satellite imagery required.
