Tactical Aviation Strikes (03:24, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation has launched guided aerial bombs (KABs) targeting the Zaporizhzhia region.
Rear Area Air Defense (03:32, I. Artamonov, HIGH): The "Red Level" UAV attack threat has been canceled in the Lipetsk region (RF), indicating a stand-down of air defense alerts in the Russian rear.
Hybrid/International Operations (03:15, TASS/ASTRA, MEDIUM): Serbian authorities have reportedly arrested two suspects in a plot to assassinate President Vučić.
Information Operation (03:32, TASS, MEDIUM): Russian state media is circulating claims by defector Vasily Prozorov regarding a perceived power struggle between President Zelensky and General Zaluzhny to degrade Ukrainian command unity.
Internal Russian Dissent (03:35, ASTRA, MEDIUM): The memorial plaque for Anna Politkovskaya was removed for the 23rd time in Moscow, signaling continued suppression of opposition symbols.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Sumy):
Battlefield Geometry: A UAV incursion in the Okhtyrka district (Sumy) was previously noted moving west. The cancellation of the UAV threat in Lipetsk (RF) suggests that any reciprocal UAF deep-strike activity in that corridor has concluded or been neutralized.
Weather: Current temp -1.0°C in Vovchansk; -2.5°C in Svatove. 100% cloud cover. Light snow (up to 5.5mm) is forecasted for the next 12 hours, which will degrade visibility for tactical ISR.
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Tactical Environment: No new kinetic updates; however, the transition to light rain/sleet is imminent in Pokrovsk (-0.7°C, 96% cloud cover). Ground saturation will continue to impede heavy mechanized movement.
Enemy Focus: Recent strikes on Ukrainian robotic platforms (NRTK) in the rear-tier (Alekseyevo-Druzhkovka) remain the primary tactical shift in this sector.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Kinetic Activity: High-intensity engagement via tactical aviation. Russian KAB launches (03:24 UTC) indicate a localized offensive or interdiction effort on the Zaporizhzhia axis.
Weather/Mobility: Kherson is experiencing active light rain (2.9°C, 0.2mm precip). The transition to "Rasputitsa" (mud season) is confirmed. In Orikhiv (1.0°C), a forecast of 6.9mm of rain will severely restrict off-road mobility to 0-10% for heavy armor.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation Threat: Russian forces are maintaining high tempo KAB strikes in Zaporizhzhia, likely aimed at softening defensive lines or targeting staging areas before ground mud conditions worsen further.
Course of Action (COA): The enemy is currently prioritizing tactical aviation and FPV-led attrition over large-scale mechanized maneuvers, likely due to deteriorating soil conditions (Rasputitsa).
Logistics: Monitoring of Russian paratrooper (VDV) channels indicates a focus on morale and internal unit cohesion (Dnevnik Desantnika quiz) ahead of anniversary operations.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: Active monitoring of KAB launch points in the South. UAF Air Force is providing timely warnings, though the KAB threat remains difficult to intercept once launched.
Logistics: Ukrzaliznytsia is currently executing the urgent route changes announced at 02:39 UTC. This rerouting is critical to avoid potential precision strikes on the anniversary.
Information environment / disinformation
Destabilization Narratives: Russian state media (TASS) is aggressively pushing the Prozorov interview to amplify internal Ukrainian political friction. This is a classic "reflexive control" tactic aimed at undermining trust in UAF leadership.
Balkan Pivot: Reports of the Vucic assassination plot are being leveraged in the Russian space to project an image of "Western-instigated" instability in the Balkans, potentially to distract from the Ukraine invasion anniversary.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued KAB strikes on the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson fronts, paired with Shahed-type UAV incursions targeting the newly established rail transit corridors.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated multi-axis missile and UAV strike timed with the 4th anniversary of the invasion, specifically targeting the rail congestion caused by today's "urgent" route changes.
Environmental: Increasing precipitation (snow in the North, rain in the South) will force all tactical movement onto paved roads, creating high-density targets for FPV and artillery.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[OPERATIONAL]: Confirm the specific impact locations of the KAB strikes in Zaporizhzhia to assess if C2 or logistics nodes were compromised.
[TACTICAL]: Monitor the Lipetsk (RF) sector for signs of Russian AD repositioning following the alert cancellation.
[HYBRID]: Assess the origin of the "Vucic plot" suspects to determine if this is a genuine security event or a coordinated Russian-Serbian narrative shift.
