Missile Alert Termination (01:25, AV Bogomaz, HIGH): The missile danger alert for Bryansk Oblast (RF) has been cancelled. No immediate reports of impact or successful interception have followed the "All Clear" signal.
Guided Bomb (KAB) Strikes - Eastern Sector (01:24, AFU Air Force, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation has launched new rounds of guided aerial bombs (KABs) targeting the Donetsk region.
Guided Bomb (KAB) Strikes - Northern Sector (01:30, AFU Air Force, HIGH): Simultaneous KAB launches were detected targeting the Eastern Kharkiv region, indicating a coordinated aerial effort across two operational axes.
Coalition Command Center Operationalized (01:15, TASS/UK MoD, MEDIUM): The UK Ministry of Defence reportedly announced the activation of a 70-person command and control (C2) node for the "Coalition of the Willing," marking an increase in multinational operational coordination.
Espionage Arrest in Russian Far East (01:25, TASS, MEDIUM): A man was detained in Primorye (RF) for allegedly transmitting data to Ukraine regarding defense facilities and railway infrastructure. This indicates sustained UAF intelligence reach into the Russian deep rear/Far East.
Moscow Security Incident Corroborated (01:30, Khabarovsk Police, HIGH): Regional Russian police channels have corroborated the death of a Senior Lieutenant in Moscow (first reported at 00:40), though the specific cause of the explosion remains officially unconfirmed as a kinetic or criminal act.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Sumy):
Tactical Aviation: KAB launches at 01:30 target the eastern portion of the Kharkiv region.
Weather: Kharkiv/Vovchansk is currently -1.4°C with 99% cloud cover. The forecast for the next 6-12 hours indicates light snow (5.5mm) with a high probability (88%), which will further degrade visibility for air defense and visual reconnaissance.
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Donetsk Axis: New KAB strikes reported at 01:24. This follows earlier KAB strikes at 00:31.
Luhansk/Svatove: Currently -2.6°C and overcast. Light snow is expected (2.4mm), with a 98% probability of precipitation over the next 12 hours.
Pokrovsk: -0.6°C, overcast. Heavy cloud cover (100%) and pending light rain (3.8mm) will likely impede FPV drone operations for both sides.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Zaporizhzhia: Currently 0.6°C and overcast. No new kinetic updates since the completion of search and rescue operations at 00:47.
Kherson: Light rain is active (0.4mm); temperature 3.6°C. Rasputitsa (mud) conditions are critical; the 100% probability of continued rain (5.9mm forecast) will severely restrict off-road maneuver and heavy logistics.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation Surge: The coordinated KAB launches at 01:24 and 01:30 suggest a concentrated effort to suppress UAF defensive positions in the Kharkiv and Donetsk sectors during the pre-dawn hours of the Feb 24 anniversary.
Rear Security Focus: The arrest in Primorye (01:25) and the internal security incident in Moscow suggest the Russian FSB and local law enforcement are on high alert for partisan or UAF-linked "special measures" deep within RF territory.
Infrastructure Targeting: The Primorye arrest specifically mentioned railway infrastructure, confirming that Russian rail networks remain a priority intelligence/sabotage target for UAF.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Deep Reconnaissance/HUMINT: The detention of an asset in the Far East (Primorye) validates the existence of UAF intelligence networks monitoring Russian logistics transiting the Trans-Siberian or Baikal-Amur Mainline routes.
Command & Control: The activation of the UK-led "Coalition" C2 node suggests a shift toward more formalized multinational military support, likely focusing on long-term planning or synchronization of aid.
Information environment / disinformation
Anniversary Tension: Russian state media (TASS) is prioritizing reports of "spies" and "terrorist" detentions to heighten domestic vigilance and justify internal security crackdowns on the anniversary of the full-scale invasion.
UK MoD Reports: Russian outlets are highlighting the 70-person "Coalition" C2 node, likely to frame it as direct Western involvement in the conflict for domestic propaganda purposes.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued KAB strikes across the Kharkiv-Donetsk arc as Russian tactical aviation exploits low-light and poor weather conditions.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Coordinated missile or Shahed-type UAV swarms targeting the energy grid (already weakened by the Slovakian power termination) to coincide with morning peak loads during the anniversary date.
Environmental Impact: Transition from overcast to active precipitation (snow in North, rain in East/South) will degrade tactical ISR and FPV effectiveness across the entire contact line.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TACTICAL]: Determine the specific targets and Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for the 01:24 and 01:30 KAB strikes in Donetsk and Kharkiv.
[OPERATIONAL]: Identify the specific nations and functional roles (e.g., logistics, targeting, or training) associated with the 70-person UK-led C2 node.
[INTERNAL SECURITY]: Monitor Russian police channels for further details on the Moscow explosion to confirm if the incident was a targeted strike on security personnel or an accidental detonation.
