Hypersonic Strike - Odesa/Podilsk (18:38, Николаевский Ванёк, MEDIUM): Reported launch of a 3M22 Zircon hypersonic missile transiting Odesa Oblast toward the Podilsk/Buyalyk area. Kinetic impact reported near Buyalyk (18:38).
Terrorism Investigation - Mykolaiv (18:44, Офіс Генерального прокурора, HIGH): The Office of the Prosecutor General (OGP) has officially opened a pre-trial investigation into the Mykolaiv gas station explosion as a "terrorist act." Casualties are confirmed at 7 police officers, with at least two in serious/critical condition.
Counter-Intelligence - Lviv/Kharkiv (18:58, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH): SBU reveals the Lviv terrorist attack involved an 18-year-old female accomplice from Kharkiv who utilized a diversionary "false report" of shoplifting to draw police resources away before the detonation.
Energy Infrastructure (18:44, Укренерго, HIGH): Ukrenergo states that the potential cessation of emergency power supplies from Slovakia "will not affect the situation" in the unified energy system, appearing to mitigate previous concerns regarding imminent rolling blackouts.
Northern Sector Aviation (19:00, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, HIGH): Confirmed launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) targeting the Sumy region.
Air Defense (18:52, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, HIGH): All-clear issued for ballistic threats in Kyiv and central regions; air defense active throughout the 18:30–18:50 window.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Sumy):
Tactical Activity: Russian tactical aviation has increased pressure on Sumy with KAB launches (19:00).
Weather: Kharkiv/Vovchansk is at -3.3°C, overcast (99% cloud cover). Icing conditions may persist for low-altitude UAVs, but high-altitude cloud cover remains a barrier for optical ISR.
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Dispositions: Russian forces (36th Brigade "Vostok") are highlighting deeply hardened subterranean C2 and UAV hubs (18:51, НгП раZVедка), suggesting a long-term defensive/static posture in some sub-sectors while maintaining high-end drone capabilities.
Weather: Pokrovsk is at 0.1°C, overcast. Temperatures are hovering near freezing, maintaining firm ground but creating hazardous slush/ice for logistics.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Tactical Activity: A potential Zircon hypersonic strike in the Buyalyk area (Odesa) targets rear-area logistics/military infrastructure (18:38).
Weather: Kherson remains the warmest at 3.0°C. Heavy cloud cover (100%) and predicted rain (93% probability) will likely initiate "Rasputitsa" conditions within the next 6 hours, significantly degrading off-road maneuverability.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action: Russia is employing a "high-low" strike profile: high-end hypersonic assets (Zircon) against deep rear targets in the South, while maintaining consistent KAB pressure on Northern border regions (Sumy).
Hybrid Operations: The use of Kharkiv-based accomplices for Lviv-based terror acts indicates a sophisticated, cross-regional cell structure intended to exploit Internal Affairs (MIA) response protocols.
Internal Friction: Interservice/political friction remains high on "Defender of the Fatherland Day." Pro-Wagner channels (Alex Parker Returns, 18:41) are openly criticizing the MoD leadership and the "failure" to capture Donetsk/Zaporizhzhia, highlighting ongoing fractures in the Russian information space despite official holiday propaganda.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Home Defense/Internal Security: In response to the Mykolaiv and Lviv bombings, the MIA is developing a new inter-agency algorithm with the SBU and OGP to differentiate diversionary emergency calls from genuine reports during terrorist incidents (19:03).
Diplomacy: President Zelenskyy met with Polish Sejm Marshal Włodzimierz Czarzasty to secure continued energy security and defense cooperation (18:52).
Air Defense: Successfully neutralized the ballistic threat to Kyiv, although the results of the Odesa/Podilsk hypersonic interception are currently UNCONFIRMED.
Information environment / disinformation
Russian Propaganda: Russian sources are recirculating footage of the Mykolaiv blast, framing the injury of "policemen" as a successful operation against "occupiers" (18:54, Операция Z).
Diversionary Tactics: The SBU update on the 18-year-old Kharkiv accomplice confirms that Russian intelligence is recruiting young, non-traditional assets for diversionary hybrid tactics.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued KAB strikes on Sumy and Kharkiv. Potential for follow-up OWA-UAV (Shahed) waves to exploit gaps in air defenses post-ballistic alerts.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Coordinated "double-tap" terror attacks in Western or Southern cities (Odesa/Lviv) using diversionary calls to concentrate emergency personnel into a kill zone for a second explosive device.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[BATTLE DAMAGE]: Assess the impact of the strike in Buyalyk; confirm if the asset used was indeed a Zircon or a different ballistic variant (Iskander-M/KN-23).
[INTERNAL SECURITY]: Determine the recruitment vector for the Kharkiv-based accomplice (Telegram-based "part-time work" vs. sleeper cell).
[ENERGY]: Clarify the contradiction between previous "rolling blackout" warnings and Ukrenergo’s 18:44 statement regarding the Slovakian power supply. Determine if alternative import routes (e.g., Poland/Romania) have been activated.
