Ballistic Missile Threat (11:50, UAF Air Force, HIGH): UAF Air Force issued a priority alert regarding the immediate threat of Russian ballistic weapon deployment across Ukraine.
Kyiv Strike Evidence (11:43, Tsaplienko, HIGH): Fragments of an "Iskander-M" ballistic missile were recovered from the roof of a McDonald’s in the Darnytsia district of Kyiv, confirming recent ballistic penetration of the capital’s airspace.
KAB Launches on Sumy (12:03, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation has commenced launching guided aerial bombs (KABs) targeting the Sumy region.
Sanctions Expansion (12:03, TASS/EU, HIGH): The European Union has sanctioned eight additional Russian security, judicial, and penitentiary officials outside of the 20th sanctions package.
Prisoner Status Update (11:39, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): President Zelenskyy confirmed approximately 7,000 Ukrainians are currently held in Russian prisons, equating the severity of the Russian and Belarusian penal regimes.
Targeted FPV Strike (11:51, Butusov Plus, MEDIUM): Visual evidence confirms a Ukrainian FPV drone strike on a soldier identified as an African mercenary; the report highlights the continued use of non-Russian personnel in frontline roles.
Alleged Ambulance Attack (11:39, Mash на Донбассе, LOW): Russian sources claim UAF forces attacked an ambulance in the Zaporizhzhia region; UNCONFIRMED and currently assessed as potential disinformation.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Sumy/Kharkiv):
Kinetic Activity: High threat of tactical aviation. Russian forces are actively employing KABs against Sumy (12:03).
Overcast conditions (Code 3) persist, limiting visual-spectrum ISR but allowing for continued KAB and drone operations.
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Battlefield Geometry: ✙DeepState✙ reported a map update (11:45), indicating localized shifts in the contact line; specific gains/losses are being verified.
Enemy Training: The Russian MoD reports winter combat training for the 5th Guards Brigade involving BMPT "Terminator" tank support vehicles (12:05), suggesting preparation for high-intensity assault operations.
Weather:
Donetsk/Pokrovsk: 0.6°C, 100% cloud cover, wind 1.8 m/s. Ground remains saturated with no immediate freeze-thaw cycle improvement.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Tactical Incidents: Reported aid deliveries by pro-Russian groups ("Crimean Fairies") near Yasinovata (12:02).
Weather:
Zaporizhzhia/Orikhiv: 4.5°C, 98% cloud cover.
Kherson: 6.5°C, 88% cloud cover. Light rain forecast (80% probability) for the next 12-24 hours.
Enemy analysis (threat assessment)
Aviation/Missiles: Continued reliance on Iskander-M ballistic systems for urban targeting and KABs for frontline suppression.
Personnel: Utilization of African mercenaries continues (11:51). The presence of these units suggests ongoing efforts to mitigate domestic Russian casualties.
C2 & Rhetoric: Dmitry Medvedev reiterated demands for full Ukrainian demilitarization and territorial concessions (11:40), while claiming that current negotiation results remain classified by agreement (11:51).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: Successful or partial interception of ballistic threats in the Kyiv area, as evidenced by recovered Iskander-M debris in Darnytsia (11:43).
Legal/Hybrid Warfare: The Ukrainian Prosecutor General has forwarded a case to court against a "Yunarmia" leader in occupied Luhansk for the "militarization of children" (12:00), maintaining legal pressure on occupation administrations.
Offensive Claims: Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi maintains that UAF has been successfully conducting counter-offensive operations since January (11:52).
Information environment / disinformation
"Defender of the Fatherland Day" (Feb 23): Significant surge in Russian propaganda, including celebratory videos from Kadyrov (12:05), WarGonzo (12:01), and various "Z" channels to boost domestic morale.
Economic Disinfo: Pro-Russian channels are amplifying claims of an "April financial tragedy" in Ukraine (11:58) to degrade civilian and military resolve.
Legal Retaliation: Russia-linked reporting highlights a drug-related criminal case in Kazakhstan against an anti-war ex-priest (11:55), likely intended to discourage dissent in the "near abroad."
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): Continued ballistic and KAB strikes on Sumy and central regions. Heightened Russian operational tempo is expected to persist through the remainder of Feb 23 due to the holiday.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): A massed ballistic or cruise missile salvo targeting Kyiv or energy infrastructure, following the "Iskander-M" activity earlier today.
Aviation: 90-100% cloud cover across the front will continue to impede high-altitude optical ISR, favoring low-altitude FPV and KAB employment.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[BATTLE DAMAGE]: Assess impact of KAB strikes in Sumy region and identify specific targets (military vs. civilian).
[ORDER OF BATTLE]: Confirm the extent of BMPT "Terminator" deployment following the MoD training reports; identify if these units are moving to the Pokrovsk or Vuhledar axes.
[GEOSPATIAL]: Clarify the specific changes in the ✙DeepState✙ map update (11:45) to determine if Russian forces have achieved a tactical breakthrough or if UAF has consolidated new positions.
[VERIFICATION]: Determine the validity of the Mash report (11:39) regarding the ambulance strike in Zaporizhzhia to counter potential Russian PEO (Psychological Effects Operations).
