UAF Counter-Offensive Success (10:48, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reported that Ukrainian Airborne Assault Forces (DSHV) and adjacent units have regained control of 400 sq. km and eight settlements in the Oleksandrivskyi direction since late January.
Deep Strike on Russian Energy Infrastructure (11:01, ASTRA, HIGH): A drone attack struck the "Kaleykino" NPS in Almetyevsk (Tatarstan, Russia) at approximately 03:50 AM, igniting two 50,000 m³ storage tanks; witnesses report ongoing explosions.
Intense Defense of Myrnohrad (11:04, 79th Air Assault Brigade, HIGH): The 79th Brigade reports defending against Russian "pincer" maneuvers and small-group tactics in Myrnohrad (Donetsk sector), noting Russian efforts to upgrade drone capabilities.
Active UAV Threat in Central Ukraine (11:05, UAF Air Force, HIGH): A Russian UAV (Shahed/Geran type) was detected in the Kryvyi Rih district (Dnipropetrovsk), moving on a south-western course.
Druzhba Pipeline Status Dispute (10:43, TASS, MEDIUM): Hungary reports that Russia has repaired the Druzhba pipeline; Hungarian FM Szijjarto claims Ukraine is blocking transit for political reasons (Note: uncorroborated by Ukrainian energy authorities).
Krasnohorivka Degradation (11:06, Butusov Plus, HIGH): Frontline reporting indicates the near-total destruction of Krasnohorivka, with only 50-80 residents remaining in a single habitable multi-story building.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Luhansk):
Kinetic Status: Stable but high tension. Russian MoD claims tactical advances in the "Sever" (North) and "Zapad" (West) operational areas (10:50, UNCONFIRMED).
Weather: Kharkiv/Vovchansk is currently -2.1°C with 87% cloud cover; Luhansk/Svatove is -2.1°C with 86% cloud cover. Visibility is restricted by heavy overcast.
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Pokrovsk):
Oleksandrivskyi Direction: UAF DSHV units have consolidated control over 400 sq. km and eight settlements since late January, marking a significant operational-level recovery of territory (10:48, Syrskyi).
Myrnohrad/Pokrovsk: Russian forces are attempting to encircle 79th Brigade positions using small-group infantry tactics. UAF units are prioritizing counter-drone operations (11:04).
Krasnohorivka: The settlement is assessed as largely untenable for civilian life following Russian assaults; combat is centered around the last remaining urban high-rise (11:06).
Weather: Pokrovsk is currently -0.3°C, 93% cloud cover, wind 1.8 m/s. Overcast conditions continue to degrade optical ISR.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson/Crimea):
Kinetic Status: UAF confirmed strikes on "important objects" in occupied Crimea and Donbas (11:06, Tsaplienko). Russian UAV activity noted moving toward the SW from Kryvyi Rih (11:05).
Weather: Orikhiv (3.3°C, 100% cloud) and Kherson (4.7°C, 94% cloud). Ground conditions remain soft; 80% probability of light rain (0.3mm) in Kherson will likely maintain high levels of mud, restricting off-road maneuver.
4. Rear Areas (Dnipropetrovsk/Russia):
Deep Strike: The strike on Almetyevsk (Tatarstan) represents a significant UAF reach (approx. 1,000+ km from the border), targeting high-capacity strategic fuel reserves (11:01).
Enemy analysis (threat assessment)
Tactical Adaptations: In the Myrnohrad sector, Russian forces are increasingly employing "pincer" movements with small, highly mobile infantry groups to bypass UAF strongpoints (11:04).
Information/Psychological Ops: Russian state media and pro-war channels are heavily saturated with "Defender of the Fatherland Day" content (Feb 23), emphasizing national unity and military-industrial progress to bolster domestic morale (10:46, 10:50).
Capabilities: Continued ability to launch lone UAVs into the Ukrainian rear (Kryvyi Rih) suggests persistent gaps in low-altitude air defense coverage or the use of complex flight paths (11:05).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Offensive Operations: The successful recapture of 400 sq. km in the Oleksandrivskyi direction indicates a high level of coordination between DSHV and supporting arms, likely exploiting gaps in Russian rotations.
Anti-Corruption Measures: NABU is investigating bribery allegations involving the Prosecutor General's office, indicating continued institutional oversight despite the operational tempo (10:44).
Strategic Communication: President Zelensky asserted that Ukraine now has high-fidelity awareness of military activities on Belarusian territory, aiming to deter future northern incursions (11:06).
Information environment / disinformation
Smear Campaigns: Pro-Russian channels are disseminating edited videos of President Zelensky to falsely claim he "admitted" to living in a bunker due to cowardice (10:52, Alex Parker Returns).
Hybrid Pressure: The Hungarian narrative regarding the Druzhba pipeline (10:43) serves to pressure Ukraine via EU energy security concerns.
Hybrid/External Narratives: Russian channels are amplifying reports of Polish border defense reforms and Mexican cartel violence to distract from frontline developments (10:41, 11:03).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): Russian forces will maintain high-intensity small-group pressure in the Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk sectors to disrupt UAF logistics.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): A large-scale retaliatory missile/UAV strike on Ukrainian energy or C2 nodes in response to the Tatarstan oil depot strike.
Aviation/ISR: Low cloud cover across the entire contact line (86-100%) will continue to limit the effectiveness of high-altitude reconnaissance and TB2-class UAVs, favoring FPV and low-altitude tactical drones.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[BATTLE DAMAGE]: Identify the specific number of functional storage tanks remaining at the Almetyevsk NPS following the ongoing fire.
[ORDER OF BATTLE]: Confirm which eight settlements were liberated in the Oleksandrivskyi direction to update the control-of-terrain map.
[LOGISTICS]: Verify the status of the Druzhba pipeline transit within Ukrainian-controlled territory to counter Hungarian diplomatic claims.
