Missile Strikes - Kharkiv (04:31, RBK-UA/Terehov, HIGH): Multiple explosions reported in Kharkiv; Mayor Igor Terehov confirmed a missile strike targeting the Kholodnohirskyi district.
Lethal Drone Strike - Zaporizhzhia (04:21, Fedorov/OVA, HIGH): A Russian drone attack on industrial infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia resulted in one fatality (33 y.o. male) and one injury (45 y.o. male).
Telegram Restriction Proposal (04:12, Operatsiya Z/Vereshchuk, MEDIUM): Deputy Head of the Ukrainian President’s Office, Iryna Vereshchuk, called for restricting Telegram/anonymous platforms, citing their use in coordinating domestic "terrorist acts" (e.g., Lviv IED).
Active UAV Vector - Zaporizhzhia (04:15, UAF Air Force, HIGH): UAF Air Force identified Russian UAVs approaching Zaporizhzhia city from a southern vector.
Air Alert Termination - Bryansk (04:15, Bogomaz, HIGH): Russian regional authorities in Bryansk have lifted the "UAV Danger" alert.
Southern Front Drone Engagements (04:26, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Russian "Southern Grouping" released footage claiming the destruction of UAF equipment across three sectors using FPV/reconnaissance drones.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Sumy):
Kinetic Status: Kinetic intensity has escalated from baseline artillery to active missile strikes. The Kholodnohirskyi district of Kharkiv is the current point of impact.
Environmental Factors: Kharkiv/Vovchansk is -7.6°C and overcast (91% cloud cover). Low visibility and cloud cover likely mask the launch platforms for short-range ballistic or cruise missiles.
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Kinetic Status: Baseline activity continues in Pokrovsk and Svatove axes. Russian "Southern Grouping" is emphasizing drone-led attrition of UAF equipment in their areas of responsibility.
Environmental Factors: Svatove remains at -8.1°C with 100% cloud cover, limiting optical ISR but favoring localized drone maneuvers in the absence of high winds (1.6 m/s).
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Kinetic Status: Active engagement area. Russian UAVs are utilizing southern corridors to strike industrial hubs in Zaporizhzhia. This follows the confirmed strike on an industrial object that caused civilian casualties.
Environmental Factors: Zaporizhzhia is currently -3.7°C and overcast. Kherson remains clear (-3.8°C), but the 93% probability of rain later today (2.7mm) will likely force a pause in Russian UAV and KAB operations within the next 4-6 hours.
Enemy analysis (threat assessment)
Tactical Shift: Russian forces have integrated missile strikes into the ongoing UAV wave, specifically targeting urban industrial districts (Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia) during the early morning hours.
Course of Action (COA): Concurrent with "Defender of the Fatherland Day," the Russian military is maintaining a high tempo of standoff strikes (UAV/Missile) to project offensive capability despite industrial sabotage deep in their rear (Tatarstan).
Southern Grouping Adaptation: Continued reliance on drone footage for Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) suggests the enemy is prioritizing the "attrition of equipment" narrative for both tactical success and domestic holiday propaganda.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Posture: UAF Air Force is actively vectoring threats in the southern and eastern airspaces. High alert remains for the Kharkiv region following multiple missile arrivals.
Information Security: Significant move by the President's Office to signal potential restrictions on Telegram. This indicates an internal assessment that anonymous platforms currently pose a net-negative security risk regarding Russian hybrid operations and domestic sabotage coordination.
Casualty Reporting: General Staff updated total enemy loss figures as of 23.02.26, maintaining the routine reporting cycle despite ongoing strikes.
Information environment / disinformation
Strategic Framing: President Zelenskyy has framed the current conflict as the start of "World War III," a narrative intended to increase the urgency of international support and emphasize the scale of Russian territorial ambitions.
Internal Security Narrative: The linking of the Lviv IED to Telegram coordination by Iryna Vereshchuk suggests a coordinated push to regulate the digital information space.
Holiday Propaganda: Russian channels are saturating the space with "Defender of the Fatherland" greetings (e.g., Basurin), attempting to maintain a festive/patriotic tone while operational alerts are being cleared in Russian border regions (Bryansk/Lipetsk).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued missile and UAV pressure on Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia. As the rain begins in the Kherson/Southern sector (forecasted 04:00+ UTC), expect a shift in Russian focus toward missile strikes which are less weather-dependent than FPV or Shahed-type drones.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A secondary wave of missile strikes targeting the energy grid in central/eastern Ukraine while air defenses are saturated by the current UAV groups over Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[KHARKIV MISSILE TYPE]: Determine if the strikes in Kholodnohirskyi district were S-300 (ballistic) or cruise missiles to assess current Russian launch platform proximity.
[ZAPORIZHZHIA BDA]: Identify the specific industrial object struck and whether it impacts military-industrial sustainment or purely civilian/logistical infrastructure.
[TELEGRAM REGULATION]: Monitor for UAF internal directives regarding the use of Telegram by frontline personnel, following Vereshchuk's public call for restrictions.
