UAF Deep Strike on Kursk Logistics (20:01, РБК-Україна, HIGH): Ukrainian forces successfully targeted a major Russian warehouse in the Kursk region. Drone footage confirms the destruction of ammunition, drones, and light transport vehicles (Bukhanka vans).
Proposed Telegram Restriction in Ukraine (19:38, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH): Deputy Head of the Office of the President Iryna Vereshchuk has formally proposed restricting Telegram and similar anonymous platforms, citing their use in coordinating the recent terrorist act in Lviv and enemy recruitment.
Persistent UAV Threats (19:38–20:02, UAF Air Force, HIGH): New groups of Russian Shahed-type UAVs have been detected entering Mykolaiv Oblast from the south and approaching the outskirts of Zaporizhzhia city.
Diplomatic Friction: EU Sanctions Blocked (20:03, Шеф Hayabusa, MEDIUM): Reports indicate Hungary is blocking the 20th EU sanctions package against Russia, citing concerns over oil transit.
Speculation on Geneva Negotiations (19:41, Операция Z, LOW):UNCONFIRMED reports from Russian sources suggest a potential round of negotiations could take place in Geneva as early as February 26.
Mexico Civil Unrest Amplification (19:39–20:07, TASS/Alex Parker, HIGH): Russian state media and mil-bloggers are heavily amplifying footage of widespread cartel violence in Mexico following the reported death of CJNG leader "El Mencho." This aligns with a persistent "global chaos" narrative designed to distract from the Ukrainian theater.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern/Kursk Sector (Russian Federation):
Logistics Interdiction: UAF continues to demonstrate reach into the Russian rear. The destruction of the Kursk warehouse (20:01) degrades the tactical sustainment of Russian units operating near the border, specifically impacting their local drone and light transport capacity.
Environment: Kharkiv/Vovchansk is currently -4.4°C and overcast (cloud 84%). Low visibility persists, though not enough to prevent UAF reconnaissance and strike drone operations (weather_context).
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Intensity of Engagement: The UAF General Staff (20:01) reports high-intensity combat across the entire front as of 22:00 local time, noting "thousands of drones" and hundreds of tactical engagements.
Environment: Pokrovsk is -1.8°C with clear skies (0% cloud). This visibility favors continued night-time drone surveillance and Russian KAB strikes (weather_context). Svatove/Luhansk remains significantly colder at -7.5°C.
Zaporizhzhia/Mykolaiv: Active UAV threats are present. Drones are maneuvering toward Mykolaiv from the south and Zaporizhzhia city (19:38, 20:02).
Counter-Attack Strategy: Captain Dmytro Filatov (1st OSHP) has publicly discussed the objectives of UAF counter-attacks in the southern sector, indicating a continued Ukrainian commitment to maintaining tactical initiative despite Russian pressure (20:03).
Environment: Orikhiv and Kherson are hovering near 0°C with clear to mainly clear skies, facilitating thermal-weighted night operations.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Course of Action: Russia is maintaining a high tempo of "saturation" attacks using a combination of stand-off aviation (KABs) and Shahed-type UAVs. The objective appears to be the simultaneous fixing of Ukrainian air defenses across multiple axes (Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv).
Hybrid Tactics: The focus on the Mexican "civil war" narrative in Russian information spaces suggests an attempt to portray the West (specifically the US) as domestically unstable, potentially to undermine arguments for continued security assistance.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Deep Strike Success: The Kursk warehouse strike indicates a high level of intelligence-led targeting, likely identifying a consolidation point for FPV drones and logistics before they could be distributed to the frontline.
Defensive Counter-measures: UAF units (specifically the 44th Brigade) are operating in high-intensity conditions in the snow (20:01). In the information domain, the UAF is navigating a complex internal debate regarding the security risks of the Telegram platform.
Information environment / disinformation
Internal Security Debate: The proposal to ban Telegram (19:38) has triggered a divide in the Ukrainian information space. Pro-UAF channels are expressing skepticism regarding the effectiveness of such a ban compared to enhanced counter-intelligence (19:46).
Targeted Narratives: Russian sources are amplifying a C-SPAN call-in involving a "John Barron" (Trump alias) to highlight US political division and dissatisfaction with tariff rulings, attempting to project transatlantic instability (19:41, 19:57).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued Shahed-type UAV penetrations toward Mykolaiv and Zaporizhzhia, likely timed to coincide with early morning temperature drops to impact energy grid stability.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Russian forces may attempt to exploit the "hundreds of engagements" reported by the GenStaff to force a localized breach in the Donetsk sector before UAF reinforcements can be repositioned.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TACTICAL BDA]: Seek confirmation of the total volume of FPV drones destroyed in the Kursk warehouse strike to assess the impact on Russian tactical drone density in that sector over the next 48 hours.
[DIPLOMATIC TRACKING]: Monitor for any official Ukrainian or Swiss confirmation of the "Geneva negotiations" claim (26 Feb) to determine if this is a legitimate track or a Russian "peace offensive" disinformation ploy.
[REAR AREA SECURITY]: Monitor the impact of potential Telegram restrictions on UAF "volunteer" logistics and civil-military coordination, which rely heavily on the platform.
