Major Russo-Iranian Arms Deal Reported (17:24, RBK-Ukraine/Financial Times, MEDIUM): Reports indicate a secret €500M agreement for Russia to supply Iran with 500 "Verba" MANPADS and 2,500 missiles. Deliveries of Mi-28E helicopters were reportedly completed in January 2026, with Su-35S sales planned for 2027-2029.
UAF Penetration near Ternove (17:21, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Russian sources concede Ukrainian forces have penetrated defenses near Ternove (East Zaporizhzhia sector), though they claim the offensive momentum is decelerating.
Drone Combat Intensification in Siversk (17:16, DeepState, HIGH): The UAF 10th Mountain Assault Brigade ("Edelweiss") released footage confirming successful drone strikes against Russian positions near Riznykivka.
Nationwide Power Rationing Imposed (17:31, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): Ukrenergo has announced that rolling blackout schedules will be active across most of Ukraine on February 23, following recent strikes on energy infrastructure.
Reported Russian Advance in Nykyforivka (17:29, Rybar, UNCONFIRMED): Pro-Russian sources claim to have raised a flag over Nykyforivka (Donetsk sector), suggesting a tactical advance.
Security Breach at Mar-a-Lago (17:33, Tsaplienko, HIGH): US Secret Service fatally shot an armed intruder at Donald Trump’s estate; while an international event, it is being heavily monitored in Ukrainian and Russian information spaces.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Siversk/Bakhmut Sector:
Dynamics: High-intensity drone operations are confirmed near Riznykivka. The 10th OShBr is effectively using FPV and drop-munitions to fix Russian infantry in the Siversk salient (17:16, DeepState).
Control of Terrain: Russian claims regarding Nykyforivka (17:29, Rybar) suggest attempted flanking maneuvers in the broader Donetsk region, though visual confirmation of sustained control is lacking.
2. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
East Zaporizhzhia (Ternove): UAF has maintained offensive pressure, achieving a localized breakthrough near Ternove. Russian milbloggers are attempting to frame this as a "waning" offensive after heavy resource expenditure near the Hychur/Upper Tersa line (17:21, Colonelcassad).
Environmental Factors: Zaporizhzhia/Orikhiv is currently 0.6°C with mainly clear skies. Wind speeds are low (2.0 m/s), providing a short window for continued drone operations before the expected overnight drop to -3.6°C.
Kherson: Conditions remain clear and stable at 0.4°C.
3. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Kostiantynivka: DPSU (State Border Guard Service) units report high levels of structural damage within the city; mobility is currently reliant on light vehicles/motorcycles due to debris and targeted shelling (17:25, Tsaplienko).
Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad: Currently -1.3°C and partly cloudy. Overnight lows of -6.8°C will likely impact mechanized maneuvers.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Logistics & Capability: The reported sale of 500 "Verba" MANPADS to Iran (17:24, Operativnyi ZSU) is a significant development. While it indicates Russian export capacity, it may also signal a strategic trade for Iranian loitering munitions (Shahed-series) needed for the ongoing energy attrition campaign.
Tactical Adaptations: Russian forces continue to prioritize symbolic "flag-raising" (Nykyforivka) to offset reports of UAF penetrations in the Zaporizhzhia sector.
Internal Morale: Pro-Russian polling suggests a high degree of domestic indifference (56%) toward international legal recognition of occupied territories, indicating that the Kremlin's "forever war" narrative is successfully insulating the population from diplomatic pressure (17:36, Kotsnews).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Operations: UAF is successfully integrating drone units (10th OShBr) to mitigate Russian manpower advantages in the Siversk sector.
Offensive Momentum: Despite Russian claims of "slowing" (17:21, Colonelcassad), the penetration at Ternove indicates UAF still possesses tactical reserves capable of breaching prepared Russian lines in the south.
Civilian Protection: Ukrenergo’s proactive scheduling of blackouts (17:31) suggests a shift toward managed load-shedding to prevent a total grid collapse following the recent strikes on the Trypilska TPP and Pavlohrad.
Information environment / disinformation
Olympic Neutrality: The disqualification of a neutral Russian skier (Daria Nepryaeva) for equipment tampering is being used by Ukrainian channels to reinforce narratives of Russian systemic dishonesty (17:31, Sternenko).
Hybrid Messaging: Pro-Russian channels (Alex Parker Returns) are circulating allegations of US Congressional interference and "fake" anonymous calls to undermine the perceived stability of Western political institutions (17:28).
Internal Friction: Profane public reactions to fireworks in Bila Tserkva (17:24, Shhtirlitz) highlight the high state of nervous tension and the social stigma against non-essential noise/pyrotechnics during the air-strike campaign.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Consolidation of gains near Ternove by UAF, met by Russian localized counter-attacks using artillery and FPV drones. Stabilization of the energy grid via the announced blackout schedules.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Russian forces utilize the overcast conditions in Kharkiv/Vovchansk (99% cloud cover) to attempt a low-visibility tactical push while UAF drone visibility is degraded.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TACTICAL CONFIRMATION] Verify the status of Nykyforivka. Is the Russian presence a temporary raiding party (flag-planting) or established defensive positions?
[ARMS TRANSFER] Monitor for secondary confirmation of the "Verba" MANPADS deal. Assess if this involves a drawdown of current Russian frontline stocks or new production.
[ENERGY IMPACT] Assess the 24-hour repair progress at Pavlohrad to determine if the rail/logistics hub can support the Zaporizhzhia offensive despite the kinetic strike.
