Escalation of Moscow UAV Incursion (13:09, Военкор Котенок, HIGH): At least nine additional Ukrainian UAVs were intercepted on the approach to Moscow within the last hour. Russian forces continue active engagement of the raid (13:23, Два майора).
Missile Threat to Odesa (13:11, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, HIGH): A high-speed projectile threat (likely ballistic or cruise) was detected originating from the Black Sea directed toward the Odesa region. Residents of Chornomorsk were ordered to take cover (13:36, Повітряні Сили ЗС України).
Assassination Allegations - Gen. Alekseev (13:17, Басурин о главном, MEDIUM): FSB Director Alexander Bortnikov officially alleged "third country" involvement—specifically highlighting a "British trail"—in an assassination attempt against MOD Lieutenant General Vladimir Alekseev.
Satellite Confirmation of Pskov Strike (13:16, Оперативний ЗСУ, MEDIUM): Satellite imagery has emerged confirming a strike on an oil depot in Velikiye Luki, Pskov Oblast. Visual assessment of the extent of the damage remains inconclusive.
Increased KAB Employment (13:10, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, HIGH): Russian VKS launched multiple KAB (guided aerial bombs) strikes targeting Sumy and Donetsk oblasts.
Russian Personnel Degradation (13:12, РБК-Україна, MEDIUM): HUR published intercepted communications indicating Russian commanders are abandoning personnel without supplies in unspecified sectors.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Sumy):
Weather: Kharkiv/Vovchansk is 0.0°C (59% cloud); Svatove is -0.5°C (41% cloud).
Dynamics: The Russian VKS has initiated fresh KAB strikes across the Sumy region (13:10, Повітряні Сили ЗС України). Operational focus remains on tactical aviation strikes despite the marginal temperature shift toward freezing.
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Weather: Pokrovsk is 1.1°C with 9% cloud cover. Wind 3.9 m/s.
Maneuver: High-speed KAB strikes were reported across the Donetsk axis. The clear skies (9% cloud) continue to provide optimal conditions for Russian guided munitions and ISR assets.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson/Odesa):
Weather: Orikhiv is 5.4°C (21% cloud); Kherson is 5.0°C (0% cloud).
Maritime Threat: A "high-speed" aerial threat was launched from the Black Sea toward Odesa/Chornomorsk (13:11, Повітряні Сили ЗС України). This follows the morning's maritime UAV activity, suggesting a coordinated multi-vector effort to probe or saturate southern AD.
Enemy analysis (threat assessment)
Course of Action (COA): Russian forces are currently leveraging a combination of stand-off KAB strikes in the North/East and high-speed missile assets in the South. This suggests a shift toward targeting coastal infrastructure (Odesa) alongside ongoing frontline attrition.
C2/Internal Security: The FSB's public accusation against the UK regarding Gen. Alekseev (GRU/MOD) suggests an attempt to externalize internal security failures or justify future escalatory hybrid measures against Western assets.
Tactical Morale: Intercepted calls continue to highlight severe sustainment issues and command negligence, potentially impacting Russian infantry's ability to hold ground in high-attrition sectors like Pokrovsk (13:12, РБК-Україна).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Deep Operations: The sustained UAV pressure on Moscow (with over 27 reported intercepts in the last 2.5 hours) continues to disrupt Russian civil aviation and fix PVO assets internally.
Infrastructure Attrition: The strike on the Velikiye Luki oil depot (Pskov) confirms UAF's ability to reach deep-rear logistical nodes, likely aimed at disrupting the supply of fuel to the Northern Group of Forces.
Information environment / disinformation
"British Trail" Narrative (13:21, Colonelcassad): Russian state media is heavily pushing the narrative of UK intelligence involvement in targeting Russian leadership. This is likely intended to frame the conflict as a direct war with NATO for domestic consumption.
Western Political Fatigue (13:28, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS): Russian/pro-Russian channels are amplifying clips from US media (e.g., Witkoff on Fox News) that characterize the war as a "territory dispute" to bolster the narrative of waning US support.
Holiday Morale: Russian MOD is utilizing hospital award ceremonies ahead of "Defender of the Fatherland Day" (Feb 23) to stabilize domestic sentiment (13:36, Дневник Десантника).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued missile and KAB strikes on Odesa and Sumy. Moscow airports will likely remain under Plan "Kovyor" as long as UAV waves persist.
MDCOA: A high-speed missile strike on Odesa port infrastructure or energy hubs, synchronized with the VKS KAB surges, to degrade grain transit or regional power ahead of the predicted Feb 23 storm.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[OPERATIONAL] Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for the Odesa/Chornomorsk missile threat.
[TACTICAL] Status of Lieutenant General Vladimir Alekseev following the reported assassination attempt; determine if this has disrupted GRU coordination in the SMO zone.
[LOGISTICAL] Level of operational degradation at the Velikiye Luki oil depot; impact on regional fuel distribution for Russian aviation.
