Votkinsk BDA Confirmed (11:44, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH): Detailed BDA of the Votkinsk Missile Production Plant strike confirms a structural breach of 30x24 meters in one of the primary assembly workshops. Firefighting activity remains active on-site (11:45, КіберБорошно).
Huliaipole Counter-Offensive (11:43, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH): Official confirmation of UAF Airborne Assault Troops (DShV) counter-offensive operations in the Oleksandrivskyi direction, with specific gains reported near Huliaipole.
Aviation Strike - Oryol Oblast (12:00, Оперативний ЗСУ, MEDIUM): Reports claim a successful UAV strike against Russian military helicopters at the Pugachevka airfield (Oryol Oblast). Visuals suggest the destruction of multiple airframes.
Mykolaiv UAV Neutralization (11:52, Николаевский Ванёк, HIGH): Air defense units successfully intercepted and neutralized both Shahed-type UAVs that were maneuvering over the Namyv and Central districts of Mykolaiv.
Diplomatic Presence (11:59, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): The French Ambassador to Ukraine visited Zaporizhzhia to inspect medical facilities and review shelling impacts, signaling continued Western commitment to front-line regions.
Logistics Alert (11:44, ТАСС): A severe snowstorm and high winds (up to 17 m/s) in Moscow are likely to disrupt Russian strategic-level logistics and supply chains feeding the Northern Group of Forces for the next 12-24 hours.
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Weather (12:00 UTC): Svatove is -0.0°C (clear); Pokrovsk is 1.9°C (mainly clear).
Tactical Activity: The Ukrainian 33rd Separate Mechanized Brigade released footage confirming successful thermal drone engagements against Russian infantry in tree lines ("posadka"), indicating high-intensity local friction (11:38, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС).
Enemy Disposition (12:07, WarGonzo): Presence of the 336th Naval Infantry Regiment (120th Division, Baltic Fleet) confirmed in the AO.
Weather (12:00 UTC): Orikhiv is 6.3°C; Kherson is 5.7°C.
Offensive Focus: The DShV counter-offensive near Huliaipole (Oleksandrivskyi direction) is the primary maneuver focus. This operation aims to disrupt the Russian defensive belt along the Zaporizhzhia-Dnipropetrovsk border.
Enemy analysis (threat assessment)
Personnel and Recruitment: Russian forces continue to integrate high-risk criminal elements directly from prisons to sustain frontline numbers, as evidenced by reports of a Krasnoyarsk convict joining the RAF to commute a murder/rape sentence (11:43, ASTRA).
Deep Rear Vulnerability: The strike on Pugachevka (Oryol) and the confirmed heavy damage at Votkinsk demonstrate continued Russian inability to secure strategic industrial and aviation assets beyond the immediate contact line.
Course of Action (COA): Russian forces are currently focused on a reactive posture in the South due to the DShV advance, while utilizing small-group UAV probes (as seen in Mykolaiv) to map current UAF air defense density.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Maneuver: Official transition to localized counter-offensive operations in the Zaporizhzhia sector.
Deep Strikes: Integration of long-range UAVs and "FP-5 Flamingo" missiles to target both production (Votkinsk) and tactical aviation (Oryol).
Air Defense: High efficiency in Southern Ukraine; 100% interception rate for the most recent Mykolaiv UAV wave.
Information environment / disinformation
Iranian Escalation Narrative (11:39, Alex Parker Returns): Pro-Russian channels are heavily amplifying Western media reports regarding Iranian contingency planning (e.g., Ali Larijani’s role) to project an image of imminent global conflict involving the US/Israel. This is likely intended to detract from Russian industrial losses.
Mobilization Pressure (11:44, Операция Z): Russian-aligned sources are weaponizing The Times reports regarding Ukraine's 250,000-man mobilization requirement to degrade domestic Ukrainian morale and frame the war as unsustainable.
Symbolic Defeat (11:56, ТАСС): State media is reporting the disqualification of Russian Olympic skiers, potentially being used to fuel internal "besieged fortress" narratives.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Russian forces will attempt a heavy artillery/KAB surge in the Huliaipole area to blunt the DShV counter-offensive.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): Given the -15°C forecast for the North/East and the Votkinsk damage, Russia may launch a retaliatory missile wave targeting energy distribution centers in Western Ukraine to demonstrate remaining capability.
Weather Impact: Extreme temperature drops (-15.5°C in Svatove) will force a reduction in mechanized movement but may increase the effectiveness of thermal-equipped UAVs.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[BATTLE DAMAGE] High-resolution confirmation of the number and types of helicopters destroyed at Pugachevka airfield (Oryol).
[MANEUVER] Verification of the depth of the DShV penetration near Huliaipole.
[TECHNICAL] Assessment of the "FP-5 Flamingo" missile's penetration capabilities based on the 30x24m breach at Votkinsk.
