Lethal Attack in Lviv (07:40): A 23-year-old Police Senior Lieutenant was killed and 24 others injured during a night attack in Lviv. The incident involved two explosions occurring while police responded to a reported shop intrusion (ASTRA, 07:40; ЦАПЛІЄНКО, 07:44, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Strategic Strike on Luhansk Oil Depot (07:52-08:02): Two Ukrainian UAVs successfully struck an oil depot in southern Luhansk, causing a fuel tank fire and injuring one guard. Confirmed by occupation authorities (ТАСС, 07:52; Mash на Донбассе, 08:02, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
High-Intensity Assaults in Pokrovsk Sector (07:54): UAF General Staff reports repelling 29 Russian assaults in the Pokrovsk direction within the last 24 hours, marking it as the primary kinetic center of gravity (Liveuamap Source, 07:54, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Destruction of RU Ammo Depot in Kharkiv Border (07:47): UAF "Hart" brigade utilized a coordinated two-drone tactic to breach and detonate an equipment and ammunition depot in the Kharkiv border region (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, 07:47, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Emergent UAV Threats to Mykolaiv and Zaporizhzhia (08:02-08:07): New groups of Shahed-type UAVs detected approaching Mykolaiv via Voskresenske and the outskirts of Zaporizhzhia city (Air Force AFU, 08:02; Николаевский Ванёк, 08:07, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Diplomatic Meeting Claims (08:00): US Special Representative Steve Witkoff stated a meeting between Putin and Zelensky could occur within three weeks, potentially involving Donald Trump (Alex Parker Returns, 08:00, LOW CONFIDENCE).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Sumy/Kursk):
Weather: Kharkiv/Vovchansk is currently -4.8°C with 0% cloud cover and low wind (1.3 m/s). These conditions offer maximum thermal contrast for ISR and drone operations (Weather Context, 08:00).
Kinetic Activity: UAF successfully targeted RU logistics near the border (07:47). However, RU aviation conducted strikes on Sumy and repelled one UAF assault in the Kursk/Sumy direction, supported by 74 shellings and 4 KABs (General Staff ZSU, 07:55).
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Luhansk: UAF successfully conducted a deep strike against a fuel node in Luhansk city (07:52).
Pokrovsk/Kostiantynivka: Extremely high friction. RU launched 29 assaults on the Pokrovsk axis (targeting Shakhove, Rodynske, and Udachne) and 14 on the Kostiantynivka axis (General Staff ZSU, 07:54).
Lyman/Sloviansk: RU conducted 6 attacks in Lyman and 9 in Sloviansk (Yampil area), all reportedly repelled (General Staff ZSU, 07:54).
Weather: Overcast in Zaporizhzhia (0.7°C, 100% cloud) and Kherson (0.6°C, 78% cloud) (Weather Context, 08:00).
Zaporizhzhia: Widespread RU aviation strikes reported across 19 settlements including Orikhiv, Huliaipole, and Novoandriyivka (General Staff ZSU, 07:54).
Current UAV Threat: Active "Shahed" incursions targeting Mykolaiv (approaching from the south/east) and Zaporizhzhia city outskirts (08:02-08:07).
Enemy analysis (threat assessment)
Tactical Shift (Incendiaries): Russian-affiliated sources are highlighting the increased use of modern incendiary weapons (napalm/pyrogels) delivered via ZB canisters and RBK-500 clusters, capable of reaching 1600°C. This suggests an intent to intensify "scorched earth" tactics in urban or forested defensive lines (Fighterbomber, 07:47).
C2 Hardening: RU Vostok Group is emphasizing the deployment of portable satellite communication terminals to maintain stable command and control despite electronic warfare (MoD Russia, 08:00).
Artillery Attrition: RU 68th Reconnaissance Battalion claims destruction of UAF "Akatsiya" and "Gvozdika" self-propelled guns near Nikolaypolye via FPV drones (Народная милиция ДНР, 07:59, UNCONFIRMED).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Deep Strike Capability: Successful UAV penetration of Luhansk airspace to hit critical energy infrastructure (oil depot).
Defensive Resilience: Maintenance of lines in the Pokrovsk sector despite 29 concentrated assaults.
Drone Innovation: Implementation of "breach and detonate" drone pairings to destroy hardened RU storage sites (07:47).
Information environment / disinformation
"Honest Putin" Narrative: US Special Representative Witkoff's comments describing Putin as "absolutely honest" are being amplified by both RU and UA channels to frame the current Russian administration as a viable negotiating partner (РБК-Україна, 07:50).
Lviv Incident Framing: The fatal explosions in Lviv are described as a "terrorist attack" by local sources; the context of a "shop intrusion" suggests either a diversionary hybrid operation or a high-risk sabotage/reconnaissance element operating in Western Ukraine.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RU will continue UAV saturation of Mykolaiv and Zaporizhzhia to exploit current overcast conditions that may mask low-altitude flight from visual detection.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Escalation of incendiary (napalm) strikes on Ukrainian defensive nodes in the Pokrovsk/Kostiantynivka sectors to force a breakthrough of the current static lines.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[HYBRID THREAT] Determine the exact nature of the Lviv explosions: Were they booby-traps, IEDs, or tactical munitions used by a sabotage group?
[BATTLE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT] Technical imagery of the Luhansk oil depot to determine the extent of fuel loss and operational downtime for RU regional logistics.
[EQUIPMENT VERIFICATION] Confirmation of the loss of UAF SPGs near Nikolaypolye as claimed by RU 68th ORB.
