Infrastructure Damage in Mykolaiv (06:08): Mykolaiv Regional Military Administration (OVA) confirms a UAV strike has damaged an infrastructure object (Operativnyi ZSU, 06:08, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Massive Power Outage in Mykolaiv (06:18): Approximately 16,000 subscribers are currently without electricity following the overnight strikes (RBK-Ukraine, 06:18, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Explosions in Zaporizhzhia (06:09): The Zaporizhzhia OVA reports explosions within the region as the UAV wave identified in the previous sitrep reached its target area (RBK-Ukraine, 06:09, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Alleged Strike on Poltava Oil Industry (06:36): Russian tactical sources claim successful strikes against oil industry facilities in the Poltava region (Dnevnik Desantnika, 06:36, LOW CONFIDENCE/UNCONFIRMED).
Sustained Pressure on Kharkiv (06:23): Local authorities report that 12 settlements in the Kharkiv region were targeted by Russian strikes over the last 24 hours (Oleh Syniehubov, 06:23, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Kyiv Damage Assessment (06:36): Kyiv OVA is currently reporting on the consequences of the overnight "massive combined attack," which reportedly involved hypersonic, cruise, and ballistic missiles alongside UAVs (Operativnyi ZSU, 06:36; STERNENKO, 06:17, MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Weather: Temperatures remain dangerously low, posing a significant threat to personnel and equipment reliability. Kharkiv/Vovchansk is -10.7°C (clear); Luhansk/Svatove is -9.2°C (clear).
Kharkiv Axis: RU forces continue a high-frequency strike tempo, hitting 12 settlements in the last 24h. Clear skies provide high thermal contrast for RU reconnaissance assets.
Donetsk (Pokrovsk axis): Currently -4.5°C (mainly clear). Cloud cover has decreased to 39%, likely increasing the effectiveness of RU visual and thermal ISR in this sector.
2. Central Sector (Kyiv/Poltava):
Kyiv: Damage assessment is ongoing. Pro-Russian sources claim a "massive strike" specifically targeted energy infrastructure in the capital and surrounding regions (Operatsiya Z, 06:35).
Poltava: Reported strikes on the oil industry (UNCONFIRMED) suggest a widening of the RU target set to include fuel-energy complex (FEC) nodes beyond just the electrical grid.
Zaporizhzhia: Under 100% cloud cover (-1.8°C). Explosions confirmed by local authorities indicate the earlier UAV incursions successfully reached target areas despite local air defense efforts.
Mykolaiv: The sector is experiencing significant utility degradation with 16,000 subscribers disconnected after infrastructure impacts.
Kherson: Currently -1.8°C (mainly clear). No new major kinetic activity reported in the last hour, but clear skies favor RU drone observation of the right bank.
Enemy analysis (threat assessment)
Course of Action (COA) Adaptation: The transition from UAV "probing" to confirmed infrastructure damage in Mykolaiv and Zaporizhzhia indicates the overnight wave was a coordinated saturation attack. The use of a "combined" strike package (hypersonic/ballistic/cruise) as reported by UAF sources suggests RU is attempting to overwhelm Integrated Air Defense Systems (IADS) at key nodes.
Strategic Targeting: Focus on Mykolaiv's energy grid and Poltava's oil industry (if confirmed) points to a systematic campaign to degrade both civilian survival (during extreme cold) and military logistics (fuel supplies).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Damage Mitigation: Rapid reporting by Mykolaiv and Kyiv OVAs indicates established protocols for post-strike assessment and emergency repair are in effect.
Resource Constraints: Finland’s Foreign Ministry has stated they have exhausted their available stocks for Ukraine, highlighting a critical long-term requirement for sustained Western industrial support to replenish depleted air defense and munitions reserves (Colonelcassad, 06:26).
Information environment / disinformation
Combined Strike Narrative: UA sources (Sternenko) are framing the overnight attack as a "terrorist act" using high-end munitions, likely to underscore the need for advanced Western interceptors (Patriot/SAMP-T).
Russian Soft Power/Hybrid: Pro-RU channels are circulating religious imagery (Maslenitsa/Forgiveness Sunday) combined with military themes, likely an internal morale-boosting effort or an attempt to contrast RU "values" with the ongoing kinetic campaign (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, 06:23).
International Pressure: TASS is amplifying quotes regarding Putin's "honesty" about "red lines," likely intended to deter Western escalation in response to the massive strike campaign.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued focus on BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) via high-altitude drones in the clear-sky northern/eastern sectors. Follow-up "Shahed" waves are likely during the evening transition to maintain pressure on damaged energy nodes.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A second wave of cruise missiles targeting the already stressed energy infrastructure in Kyiv and Poltava, exploiting the current disruption of regional IADS and emergency response capabilities.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TECHNICAL] Confirmation of "hypersonic" (Kinzhal/Zircon) munitions usage in the overnight Kyiv/Lviv strikes.
[BDA] Independent verification of the alleged oil industry strike in Poltava.
[LOGISTICS] Assessment of the time-to-repair for the damaged infrastructure in Mykolaiv to determine the duration of the 16,000-subscriber outage.
[TACTICAL] Identification of any RU ground movement in the 12 targeted Kharkiv settlements to determine if strikes are preparatory for localized assaults.
